Danica Patrick: 5 Reasons She Has No Shot at Winning 2011 Indy 500

Danica Patrick dodged a major bullet on Bump Day at the Indianapolis 500. After missing the cut on the first day of qualifying (known as Pole Day to 500 fans), Danica surged through the second day's qualifying runs with the second fastest average speed over her four qualifying laps.

But now, Patrick will try to win her first Indy 500 from the 26th position, in the midst of Row 9 of the field. While it's certainly possible, it's not going to be easy. 

Will Danica rally through the pack and make history as the first female 500 champion? 

Here are five reasons why you shouldn't bet on it. 

5. Scott Dixon

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INDIANAPOLIS - MAY 21: Scott Dixon driver his #9 Target Chip Ganassi Racing Dallara Honda prpepares to drive during qualifying for the the 95th Indianapolis 500 Mile Race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway on May 21, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Phot

Dixon knows how to win at Indy; he grabbed the 2008 crown at the 500 and has always run well here. He’s found a groove since 2006, having finished with five straight top six finishes, including that win in 2008. Dixon starts his day second in the order next to polesitter Alex Tagliani on Row 1, and when he’s out near the front, he’s tough to catch.  

If Danica wants to win this race, she’s going to have to get through Dixon, and given the way he’s run, that’s going to be much easier said than done. She’s going to be in for a fight from him all day should she make it to the front, and he’s fully capable of turning this thing into a laugher. 

4. Dario Franchitti

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INDIANAPOLIS - MAY 20: Dario Franchitti driver of the #10 Target Chip Ganassi Racing Dallara Honda sits in the pits during practice for the the 95th Indianapolis 500 Mile Race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway on May 20, 2011 in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Speaking of people with a history of success at the greatest spectacle in racing, this Scotsman has been downright sublime at Indy over the years. Franchitti is on a roll at Indy, having finished first, seventh and first again in the last three years and failing to finish worse than seventh in any race on the course since 2005. He always runs well here, plain and simple. 

On top of that, he’s got a great car this year. Had his team not failed to put enough gas in the tank, he would have been in line for at least fourth spot on the order, but he’s still sitting pretty in ninth. 

We’ve seen Franchitti win here before, and it remains to be seen whether Danica can actually beat him or not. 

3. Danica's Qualifying Adventures

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MAY 22: Danica Patrick, driver of the #7 Team GoDaddy Dallara Honda, gives two thumbs up after qualifying for the Indianapolis 500 on May 22, 2011 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty I

Danica’s week of qualifying was eventful to say the least. First, she posted one of the fastest times and speeds of the first day of practice, but things went downhill from there in a hurry. 

She struggled with the car as temperatures rose on the track through the week, losing speed in a big way. Then, on Saturday, she was held out of Pole Day qualifying when her car didn’t meet the proper specs for the race. After making adjustments, she was ready to go qualify on Bump Day—only to have the storms rolling through the Indianapolis area postpone her. 

Danica’s rocky qualifying could be an issue if the temperature is high on the track come next Sunday. She’s shown she can go fast, but can she do it on a consistent enough basis to win? That remains to be seen.

2. Her History at Indy

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MAY 22: Danica Patrick, driver of the #7 Team GoDaddy Dallara Honda, suits up as she prepares to qualify for the Indianapolis 500 on May 22, 2011 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Im

Now wait a minute, you say. Danica’s run great at Indy over the years. How does her history mean she won’t win? 

Simple: Danica has done her best work on the bricks when she’s at the front early. She’s only qualified in the back half of the field once, and that was last season, when she was 23rd. 

So, you say? She weaved her way through the pack and finished sixth, moving up 17 places. 

But in this race, 17 places will get Danica no better than ninth. If that’s the best she can do in terms of moving up (and history says it is), she’s too far back in the pack to rally to the front to score the win. Even if we give her two or three more spots, that’s still not going to be good enough.

1. Helio Castroneves

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MAY 21: Helio Castroneves of Brazil, driver of the Shell V-Power/Penzoil Ultra Team Penske Dallara Honda, waits his turn during qualifying for the Indianapolis 500 on May 21, 2011 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Indianapolis, Indiana

Ah yes. The big reason why Danica, even if she can wind and weave her way through the pack, won’t grab the win at the Brickyard this week. Castroneves has taken home the 500 crown an astonishing three times in his career, in 2001, 2002 and 2009, and hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in the race since at least 2001. 

He’s been one of the sport’s elite racers on this track his entire career, and as long as he’s on the track (which he is) and in a decent position (16th isn’t great, but he’s come from worse), he’s going to be a factor. If Danica wants to win this race, she’s going to have to beat Helio to do it, and given how well he runs at Indy, he’s not going down without a fight. 

In the end, Castroneves, along with Patrick’s history and shaky qualifying, will combine to ensure that she leaves what may be her final Indy 500 without a win. Will she get a top 10 finish? Probably. But with as much ground as she’ll need to make up, a win here just doesn’t look to be in the cards, particularly with the heavy hitters already ahead of her in the field.