Fernando Alonso and His Future: It's Decision Time

Fernando Alonso’s future has been one of the main talking points of the season. After Alonso won the 2006 title with Renault, he had a difficult year at Mclaren, which hurt his reputation a little.

Alonso now wants to get back into a competitive race seat as quickly as possible, and start challenging for championships again. His career has derailed slightly and he wants to get it back on track.

The decision is made more difficult by the fact that it is hard to predict which teams will do well next season. With the huge 2009 rule changes, there could be a shift in the current pecking order. It is like starting from a fresh piece of paper as opposed to simply upgrading their current packages, as we saw between 2007 and 2008.

Alonso had been linked with Ferrari, likely his dream destination, for months on end, but that option went for naught with Kimi Raikkonen renewing his contract.

BMW Sauber would also have been a very competitive team to join, but they have just recently announced that they are keeping both of their drivers. Red Bull was once linked with signing up the Spaniard, but they opted against making it and signed Sebastian Vettel instead.

So, as it stands, Fernando Alonso has two options for next season. The first one is to stay with Renault and hope the team can continue their current fight back and challenge for the championship once again.

The second is to take a big gamble with Honda which, under Ross Brawn, wants to fight for championships within the next two or three years. Of course, tabloids will carry on suggesting that a seat at Ferrari is possible. But realistically, it is between Renault and Honda.

Maybe if it wasn’t for his responses to certain situations last season, Alonso may have some better options right now. However, it does seem Ferrari and BMW Sauber have some worries at the back of their head about what happened at Mclaren in 2007.

Therefore, they have opted for the safe approach and have chosen for the stability option in terms of their drivers.

Fernando Alonso has said that he won’t be making any decision until after Brazil. So, should he stay at Renault or go for Honda?

Let's look at the positives and negatives of both Renault and Honda.

Renault

Positives

Fernando Alonso is very used to this team. He feels right at home there and all the team mechanics love having him. Renault is the only team to have beaten Mclaren and Ferrari in the last decade. They have had the experience of being in a tight title fight and know what it takes to get across the line first.

The key word for Alonso here is stability. Stability is important for anyone in the workplace, whatever and wherever it may be. He doesn’t have to start the season in an alien environment and build new relationships from scratch. Driving for a third team in as many years could be unsettling for Alonso.

Alonso only likes to be the No. 1 driver in a team. This shouldn’t be a problem should he stay. Either Nelson Piquet Jr. or a new graduate from GP2 will likely occupy the second seat.

If Piquet remains in the team, this will not be an issue. Alonso has beaten Piquet in every single qualifying session this season. Piquet has rarely even challenged Alonso.

Lucas Di Grassi and Romain Grosjean are both the possible graduates from GP2. However, neither has displayed anywhere the level talent that Lewis Hamilton displayed whilst he was in GP2.

Renault have recently showed that they are still capable of improving the car and fighting back. At the beginning of the 2008 season, Renault was over a second off the pace of the leaders. Over the last few races, this gap has been closed considerably. At Fuji they were only three or four tenths of second off the ultimate pace.

Importantly, they have now shown that they have recovered from their problems of the last couple of years. They struggled when Mass Dampers were banned in the middle of 2006. Since Michelin left the sport, adapting to the Bridgestones has been a huge struggle.

Plus there have been problems with wind tunnel calibration (results shown in the wind tunnel not being reflected in on-track performance). These problems seem to be behind them.

The wins at Singapore and Fuji have definitely changed the team. Everyone seems much happier and optimistic about the future. The level of motivation will now be a lot higher, so Renault could potentially go into 2009 in a strong position.

Negatives

One of the biggest problems with Renault currently is its engine. Over the season, other teams have managed to find loopholes to improve their performance, whereas Renault didn’t do so.

Therefore, they have fallen behind in performance on the engine front. However, this negative may not exist next season as the teams and the FIA are seeking to equalize the engine performance from next season.

One of the biggest issues could well be Renault’s long-term commitment. At the main headquarters, they are trying their hardest to cut back on costs. This could affect the F1 team’s budget or its existence altogether. As it is, Renault does not have the sheer amount of money or facilities that Mclaren, Ferrari, and even Toyota have.

With Renault’s recent comeback, this may motivate the boss at Renault to carry on investing in an F1 team and maybe even increase the budget. Alonso will certainly need assurances on this, as lack of stability saw at Renault him initially sign with Mclaren for 2007.

Flavio Briatore will also be stepping back next season to a lower role at Renault. Briatore has been a brilliant boss for Renault and he has had a major influence on the team over the years.

How will this affect the team’s progress? Key team members, like Pat Symonds and Bob Bell, aren’t getting any younger. How much longer will they be in the big roles? Symonds has already stepped back slightly recently.

Renault has been working flat out over the whole of 2008 to improve the car to get to the point they are now. As mentioned, the regulations changes are huge. Has Renault put too much effort in 2008 to the detriment of the 2009 project?

Other teams have been putting a lot of effort into 2009 from a very early stage. The biggest teams have been able to work on both 2008 and 2009 at the same time. It could be that Renault may end up being behind on 2009 developments.

The team has had to show Alonso that they are making great progress in order to persuade him to stay on. If they had given up on 2008, then their goal of keeping Alonso could have been negatively affected.

Honda

Positives

Ross Brawn being the principal at Honda is the main positive. He has already made a lot of changes at Honda. The signs are that, overall, Honda is a much more efficient operation than it was before he took over the team.

From the offset, it was clear to see how much of an immediate impact he made. Just before the first race, he contributed greatly to adding a second’s worth of extra pace onto the car. The team has changed its way of working for the better.

Ross Brawn is very good at working with drivers and having strong relationship with them. He built a very close relationship with Michael Schumacher, which lasted many years. Brawn is a big and dominant personality; if anyone can build a strong relationship with Alonso and keep him on the straight and narrow, it has to be Ross Brawn.

Since those aforementioned upgrades, Honda has mainly been putting its focus on the 2009 car. Reports suggest that they have up to 5 separate wind tunnels working on the car.

Another big plus is that Honda is said to be quite a margin ahead of the other teams with KERS development (Kinetic Energy Recovery System). Other teams (notably Ferrari) have come out and admitted that they are struggling with the system and may not have it ready for the start of the season.

The difference between a good and bad system could be worth a big chunk of time. Ross Brawn is renowned for his ability to adapt to new regulations

Honda also has a huge budget, which is another major plus point over Renault. With a huge amount of technical changes a lot of money is needed. Honda effectively throw whatever money at the F1 project that is needed. Honda’s facilities are very strong and up there with the likes of Ferrari and Mclaren in this department.

Honda are desperate to succeed in F1, and spending big to hire Ross Brawn emphasizes that desire to win in F1. Honda have won in other areas of motor sport. They now want to add F1 to their list.

Negatives

Of course, settling into a new team is always extremely difficult, and it would take a while for Alonso to feel at ease with Honda. Alonso never really adapted to how Mclaren worked. Would he be able to get Honda to work for him and build a good and close relationship with those around him?

The biggest issue with joining Honda is the big gamble that comes with it. At the moment, Honda is only just ahead of Force India on pace. Therefore, to believe that Honda can move up five or six rows in one season is putting a lot of faith in them.

Apart from Ross Brawn, much of the same team of engineers who were responsible for the slow cars of this and last season are still there. There hasn't been a whole host of new staff that have come with Ross Brawn.

This lack of new team members and mechanics is unlike his stint with Ferrari, when a host of Benetton staff (where Brawn worked prior to leaving) followed him. Will Brawn’s influence be enough to get the Honda staff to build the car Alonso needs and wants?

Joining the team would be a long-term plan. There is no way Honda can turn from tail end Charlies to champions in one season. It will take two or three years for Honda to be realistically challenging for the title.

Alonso has a lot of hunger for titles and wants to be challenging straight away. In order to achieve success at Honda, he will have to work hard behind the scenes to make it happen. However, if it all comes together, Alonso and Honda could enjoy a long era of success similar to Michael Schumacher and Ferrari.

Fernando Alonso much prefers to be the number 1 driver. At Renault this would certainly be a given. However, at the moment, Honda is pretty much Jenson Button’s team. The team has been built around him and all the team members have a close relationship with him.

Button is also a very capable driver in a quick car and could challenge Alonso. Alonso would also be paired with a British driver (again). This means renewing that poor relationship which Alonso had with the British media and fans.

There is a chance of some instability in the team if Alonso signs. How will Alonso react if Button beats him? How will Button feel if the team he has helped build suddenly just revolves around Alonso? Could it work? 

Honda would want Alonso to commit for the long-term. They don’t want him to sign for a year, only to see him pack his bags and leave. This was one of the reasons why Red Bull was unwilling to sign him.

If Alonso wants to take this almighty gamble, he has to commit for the long term. If he does this and Honda doesn't progress, his career risks stalling even further, and he could end up being stuck.

Conclusion

So, after reflecting on the positives and negatives of joining Renault and Honda, which side should Fernando Alonso choose?

With Honda, there is a lot of potential. In a way, the potential is similar to what Ferrari had before Michael Schumacher joined the team.

If Alonso went there in a positive manner and worked well with Ross Brawn, the amount of success they could have together may be endless. However, the element of risk is huge and Alonso would need a big level of commitment.

Alonso simply doesn’t have to take such a huge gamble at this time. If he wasn't to go to Honda, then the team would likely add an extension onto Rubens Barrichello’s contract or give a rookie, such as Bruno Senna, a one-year contract.

Alonso could sign with Renault for an extra year and see how well they adapt in 2009. At the same time, he can look down the pit lane at Honda, and assess the amount of progress they are making. If it looks like Honda are making big strides and Renault isn't, Alonso can rethink his options.

Honda wants Alonso so they will happily put him in the team instead of whoever is in the second Honda seat for 2010. However, if Alonso sees that Honda still isn't going anywhere, he will know that he made the right decision.

He can then think about extending his Renault contract beyond 2010 or, if a sear becomes available in a desirable team, he will be in a position to pursue them.

So basically, this writer’s advice to Fernando Alonso is not to wait until after Brazil to decide, but to pen that contract extension straight away. Don’t commit for more than a season though!

Use next season to assess how things are going. How are Renault and Honda adapting to the 2009 rules? Is there a chance of a vacancy re-appearing elsewhere? He needs to use 2009 to assess what is the best way forward from 2010 onwards. Staying at Renault for the time being would also keep dreams of driving for Ferrari later in his career alive.

Committing long term to Honda now could potentially be career breaking, but could equally be career destroying. It is not worth the gamble at the moment.

It is best for him to stay put, be cautious, and see how things play out first.