Houston Texans in the Playoffs? Game by Game Preview of the 2011 Season
I realize that by writing this piece I'm asking you all to take a leap of faith. As of right now, the NFL season is on hold. The chances of the season starting on time don't look great right now.
Let's assume we have a season to play. That said the upcoming season is a huge one for the Texans. The franchise needs a playoff berth in the worst way. The fans are becoming increasingly restless with the current regime.
Texans management, though, seems confident. The ink just dried on head coach Gary Kubiak's new three year deal.
If the Texans do break through and make the playoffs, owner Bob McNair's patience will seem to have been rewarded. If the Texans miss the playoffs, they will have dug themselves a nice hole as they will have the choice of playing with a lame duck coach for two more years or paying for his buyout.
Unfortunately, the road to the playoffs is going to be really tough for the Texans. They have been dealt a bad hand as far as the schedule goes, although one could argue that if they are truly a playoff team, they will find a way to navigate it.
Sunday, September 11th- Indianapolis Colts
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The Texans first game of the season will remind them of just how difficult making the playoffs will be. For their entire existence, the Colts have been a big reason the Texans have struggled to get over the hump. When you play a team that is as consistently good as the Colts are twice a season, you are already behind the eight ball.
To say the Texans have struggled against the Colts is being very kind. In the entire history of the franchise, the Texans have beaten the Colts twice.
When you couple that track record with Peyton Manning passing against one of the worst passing defenses in the league, this could turn out to be a long game for the Texans and their fans.
Eventually the Texans have to flip the script against the Colts, right? One thing is for sure. If they are to become a perennial playoff team, they will have to go through the Colts to do it.
Sunday, September 18: At Miami Dolphins
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Coming off the game against the Colts, the schedule eases up a little bit with a game against the Dolphins.
Like the Texans, the Dolphins are coming off a 7-9 season. Defensively, the Dolphins ranked 14th last year. Much better defenses have had trouble stopping the Texans.
The biggest reason for optimism is the Dolphins offense. They ranked 30 of 32 last season in total offense. They are one of the few teams that likely doesn't have the passing game to capitalize on the weak secondary of the Texans. Quarterback Chad Henne passes for decent yardage, but he is mistake-prone.
The Texans need to get a win in this game, as the level of competition goes up from here.
Sunday, September 25: At New Orleans Saints
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The game against the Saints begins the gauntlet portion of the Texans schedule. The Saints are coming off an 11-5 season. The Saints also seem to be the team best suited to play against the Texans.
They have one of the most powerful passing offenses in the league led by quarterback Drew Brees. The Texans don't have any players in their secondary that could keep up with the Saints receiving corps of Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson.
Their defense isn't bad either. Last season, they ranked 7th in the league in scoring defense.
Unless something changes in the course of the offseason, this certainly isn't a game you'd expect the Texans to win. If they want to take the next step, though, they have to start stealing some games from team that are "better" than they are.
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Sunday, October 2: Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Texans' gauntlet continues with a game against a Steelers team coming off a Super Bowl loss.
Not only do you worry about the Steelers offense lighting up the defense, you worry that their style of play with affect the Texans. The Steelers are a hard-nosed team that likes to play physical. Right or wrong, the Texans are known as a soft team. If the Steelers come out hitting the Texans hard, will they respond or fold up?
After early games against the Colts, Saints and Steelers, the Texans could easily be 1-3 or 0-4 at this point.
Sunday, October 9: Oakland Raiders
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In previous seasons, games against the Raiders could be counted as wins before the game was even played. That's not the case anymore and the Texans found that out the hard way last season.
They came away with the victory, but not before the upstart Raiders gave them all they could handle.
The biggest positive again for the Texans is that the Raiders currently don't have a quarterback that scares anyone. Last season, they split their snaps between Jason Campbell, Bruce Gradkowski and Kyle Boller.
The devil's advocate position here is that any of those quarterbacks are capable of torching the porous Texans pass defense.
The real test will be the Texans rush defense against the Raiders stable of backs. The pass defense gets the most criticism, and rightfully so, but the rush defense wasn't reminding anyone of the vaunted Ravens defense of past years.
Sunday, October 16: Baltimore Ravens
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Speaking of the Ravens, the Texans have a meeting with the current rendition of the team on October 16. While they don't have a defense full of Pro Bowlers like they did back in 2000, they are still one of the tougher teams in the league as they take their cue from long-time emotional leader Ray Lewis.
The Ravens boast a balanced offense led by quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice. Generally, teams beat the Ravens by trying to bottle up Rice and forcing Flacco to beat them. In this case though, I'd expect the Ravens to try to use the pass against the Texans to open up the run.
It will be on the defense to make stops as the Texans can't afford to get in a shootout with the Ravens. Baltimore's defense is much too good for that. Although he isn't the player he once was, Ray Lewis is still an enforcer on defense. Haloti Ngata at nose tackle is also just what the doctor ordered to try to stop the Texans running game led by Arian Foster.
Sunday, October 23: At Tennessee Titans
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The games against the Titans are huge for the Texans for a number of reasons. First, they are divisional games. If the Texans have hopes of winning the AFC South, they obviously have to play well against the teams in their division.
Second, it's a rivalry, at least as far as the fans are concerned. Many Texans fans are still upset about the way owner Bud Adams up and moved the Oilers to Tennessee. Third, and probably most importantly, the Titans are the only team in the division that you can say with 100 percent certainty the Texans are better than.
The Titans are in search of a quarterback as they have vowed to part ways with Vince Young. Kerry Collins is solid, but fading fast and something tells me the Rusty Smith era in Tennessee is over before it even began.
Running back Chris Johnson will win them some games on his own, but if you stop him, you have a good chance of stopping the Titans altogether.
Given the relative difficulty of the schedule, getting this road win might be considered a must-have for the Texans.
Sunday, October 30: Jacksonville Jaguars
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I think I speak for most Texans fans when I say I was confident the Texans wouldn't be counting the Jaguars as competition for a playoff spot anytime soon. Unfortunately, I was wrong.
The Jags surprised many by finishing 8-8 last year. They even hung around the playoff discussion until late in the season.
Offensively, they are led by Pro Bowl running back Maurice Jones-Drew and the steady hand of David Garrard at quarterback. Garrard may seem unspectacular, but he plays well against the Texans.
In a victory over Houston last season, Garrard threw for 342 yards. His absence in the second game against the Texans was likely a big reason the Jags came out on the losing end.
This game against Jacksonville is a huge game for the playoff picture. The Texans and Jaguars will be two teams fighting for playoff spots and position within the division.
The Colts are still the class of the division and the Titans will probably be bringing up the rear. The Texans and Jaguars will be left jockeying for that second place finish and a likely spot in the playoff mix.
Sunday, November 6: Cleveland Browns
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This game is one of the few you have to mark up as a must-win before the season even begins. Yes, the Browns are improved. Quarterback Colt McCoy has given the franchise some hope at the position and running back Peyton Hillis came out of nowhere to become one of the more productive backs in the league last season.
That being said, they are still not a playoff team and this is a home game. You have to hold your home field advantage if you have any plans on making the postseason.
Even with McCoy showing signs of being a good starter, the Browns likely don't have the receiving options to exploit the pass defense. Hillis will be more than enough to test the run defense however.
The key will be to get out to an early lead and try to hold on from there. By focusing so much on the running game, the Browns don't have the offensive firepower to mount huge comebacks.
Sunday, November 13: At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Like the Raiders and Jaguars earlier on this schedule, the Buccaneers will pose a much more difficult challenge that you would have thought before last season.
The Bucs finished with a surprising 10-6 record. Even more surprising, and worrisome to the Texans, was the development of quarterback Josh Freeman.
Last season, Freeman had an outstanding 25/6 touchdown to interception ratio. That's not good news for a team that can't stop the pass.
The running game is no slouch either, led by LeGarrette Bount and his five yards per carry.
This game has the makings of a shootout, and a tough one at that. Tampa Bay had the ninth best scoring defense last season.
Sunday, November 27: At Jacksonville Jaguars
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The first return game within the division may be the biggest one of the season. By this point of the slate, we will know if the Texans or Jaguars, or both, are playoff contenders.
Both teams would ultimately prefer to be challenging the Colts for supremacy in the AFC South, but I'm not sure either team is ready for that. For now, they will have to settle for battling each other for a wild card spot.
In theory, the Jaguars should be favored here because they are at home. In practice, that's not really the case. The Jags struggle to fill their stadium more than any team in the league. Their advantage is minimal at best.
With the quality of both of these teams, I don't feel it's outlandish to say this game could be the difference in either team trying to make the postseason.
Sunday, December 4: Atlanta Falcons
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The Texans tough slate continues with a game against another playoff contender in the Atlanta Falcons. With so many difficult games by this point, the Texans will either be flourishing as a real playoff contender or wilting under the immense pressure of playing their tough schedule.
The Falcons have a balanced, two-pronged offensive attack led by quarterback Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan and bruising running back Michael Turner.As such, Atlanta will provide another stiff challenge for the embattled Texans defense.
The Falcons defense will likely also be up to the task led by former Texan Dunta Robinson. What the Falcons lack in big name stars on their defense, they make up for with no-nonsense veterans that do nothing but produce.
Sunday, December 11: At Cincinnati Bengals
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The Texans' schedule begins to ease up a little beginning with this matchup with the Bengals.
Not being able to make roster moves has to be particularly frustrating for a team like the Bengals. Quarterback Carson Palmer has said he will either be traded or he will retire. I'm sure there are more than a few antsy members of the Bengals front office as they need to find a solution at quarterback, but can't thanks to the lockout.
Beyond the quarterback situation, the Bengals are simply an aging, unsettled team. At running back, Cedric Benson has had a small resurgence, but the reality is that he isn't a home run hitter at the position.
Their two best receivers are Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco. They are 37 and 32 respectively. Clearly their best days are behind them. Owens may not be back with the team and Ochocinco seems more interested in playing soccer and riding bulls than getting ready for next season.
The story on defense isn't any better. The Bengals ranked 24th in the NFL in scoring defense. The one area that may give the Texans pause is the amount of takeaways for the Bengals last season.
Overall, they weren't a good defense, but they do have several guys that can turn the ball over. Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall both had several interceptions last season.
Sunday, December 18: Carolina Panthers
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This game should interest Texans fans on a couple of levels. First, it's a very winnable game the Texans really need to have to feel good about their playoff chances.
Second, it may give the Texans their first live look at Cam Newton. There is some talk in Carolina that Newton may sit behind either Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen. Even if Newton sits initially, you have to think they'll have him at least seeing time by this point of the season if they plan on playing him at all.
Unless Newton, or any other quarterback, has a huge year beyond what anyone can expect, the Panthers just don't have the horses on either side of the ball to hang with the Texans.
The Texans also will have home field advantage to work with. On paper, the Texans will get a comfortable win, but you know what they say about not playing games on paper.
Thursday, December 22: At Indianapolis Colts
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In a best case scenario, this game will decide who wins the AFC South. The Colts would just need to have their typical season and the Texans would have had to navigate their incredibly tough schedule.
In a worst case scenario, the Texans got pummeled by the schedule and are out of the playoff race with the Colts resting their starters because they have already clinched a playoff berth.
In reality, the situation is probably somewhere in between those two scenarios. As I mentioned earlier in this piece, I don't think the Texans are ready to compete for the division title. They simply have too many question marks on defense.
My feeling is that this game will have playoff implications, though. The Colts will still have something to play for, likely home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Texans will be fighting for their playoff lives.
Unfortunately, this will be a tough one to get. Not only do the Texans have their aforementioned struggles against the Colts, but this is a road game.
Sunday, January 1: Tennessee Titans
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The season finale will have some intrigue as all rivalry games do. There is also a good chance the Texans will need this game to either get in the playoffs or solidify their playoff position.
I can't imagine the Titans being good enough to need this game for anything, but I'm sure they would love to play spoiler.
The Texans shouldn't have any issue getting a win in this one, but just to be sure, they'll be hoping that by now the Titans are on their third or fourth quarterback trying to find someone to trust.
I'll save my final prediction on the Texans record for a time when we know more about them and other teams around the league, but based on what we know about these teams alone, I see the Texans going 10-6 and needing every last win to get into the postseason.
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