College Football 2011 BCS Projections: The 10 Most Overrated "Contenders"
So you think you know who's going to be in the "big show?" You think you know who won't?
Each year, pundits across the country pop out their way-too-early-preseason-before-we-know-anything Top 25 rankings for the upcoming season. Invariably, they're partly right and partly wrong. After all, what looks great right now is garnered from incomplete information and based more on what was a year ago rather than what will be.
Also invariably, there are a slew of teams that just don't live up to the hype.
Who will it be in 2011? Well, I'll use ESPN's Preseason Top 25 and CFN's Preseason Top 25 as guides and let you know who is closer to right and why they both have some teams overrated.
10. Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 2
CFN's Rank: No. 1
What the...?!
Don't get your Crimson knickers in a twist just yet. There are 27 teams between the two lists I'm going off of and 10 teams have to make this list. That's 37 percent, for the mathematically challenged.
Alabama barely makes this list, and yes, I struggled with this decision. They're not "overrated" by much, so don't go thinking that I believe they will be bad just because they made this list.
The Tide have had tremendous recruiting classes, so they're more likely to "reload" than they are to "rebuild." They've got a wealth of talent, and coach Nick Saban knows how to use it.
However...
Why They're Overrated
The Tide are missing QB Greg McElroy, WR Julio Jones, 2009 Heisman Trophy-winning RB Mark Ingram and DL Marcell Dareus. They may have a ton of talent, but that's a ton of talent they just lost right there, and they were all leaders on this team.
Remember a year ago this time? While the nation was busy noting that the Tide were missing the majority of their defense, Alabama fans were trying desperately to convince us that it wouldn't matter.
"These guys all have experience, so it's not like they're putting in a bunch of freshmen." "With their recruiting, they'll just reload and keep ROLLING."
Those are just a couple of examples of the kinds of things I read on message boards across the net.
How did the Tide Roll? To the tune of three losses.
No, that's not bad, and yes, they did almost get back into the national title chase before losing to eventual champion Auburn. But they didn't quite get there, did they?
Once again, they'll be good. Heck, they'll be very good. However, I think they'll miss McElroy, Jones and Ingram more than they want to believe.
Both ESPN and CFN are wrong on this one. The Tide may be Top Five, but they won't be in the BCS National Championship Game.
9. Wisconsin Badgers
2 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 13
CFN's Rank: No. 18
What the...?!
I get it. Montee Ball and James White are each pretty special. Together, they may well make up the best running back duo in the nation.
Bret Bielema put together a unit that was one of the better-performing teams in the country at the end of last season. That is, until he mysteriously went away from their bread and butter (the run) in the Rose Bowl and gave up a golden opportunity to TCU.
As with Alabama, Wisconsin isn't overrated by much. In fact, an argument might also be made that they're underrated at the marks ESPN and CFN place them.
However...
Why They're Overrated
QB Scott Tolzien completed 72.9 percent of his passes last year. You just don't get much more accurate than that. Jon Budmayr is the man slated to replace Tolzien, and he only had 10 attempts all of last year.
What's more, they've lost Gabe Carimi, Bill Nagy and Josh Oglesby from the offensive line rotation.
They also lose J.J. Watt, Culmer St. Jean, Jay Valai, Niles Brinkley and Blake Sorensen from the defense, along with WR David Gilreath and RB John Clay from the offense.
Sure, White and Ball are fantastic running backs, but with a weakened offensive line they may have to channel more Barry Sanders than Emmitt Smith, and the offense may have to rely more heavily on a younger, less experienced quarterback.
What's more, the defense can't be better with the losses they're taking.
The Badgers get Nebraska and Penn State at home but have to travel to play Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois. From that list, I can easily see three losses with a fourth a real possibility, and most of them will come early enough to knock the Badgers completely out of the Top 25.
I'd lean more toward CFN's prediction, but ESPN has them overrated.
8. West Virginia Mountaineers
3 of 10
ESPN's Rank: NR
CFN's Rank: No. 19
What the...?!
Okay, so the Big East is kind of a joke. Someone pretty much has to be ranked, right? I mean, if they're not, then it's awfully hard to justify that automatic qualifier status in the BCS.
QB Geno Smith is an interesting talent, and having Oklahoma State's former OC Dana Holgorsen as the new head man could be the spark that ignites the fire.
However...
Why They're Overrated
RB Noel Devine has graduated, along with WR Jock Sanders, from the offense. That's the top running back and the top receiver. So Smith is going to operate the offense alone?
On the defensive side of the ball, the Mountaineers have lost three of their top four tacklers in linebackers J.T. Thomas and Anthony Leonard, along with DB Sidney Glover. They also lose DL Scooter Berry (love that name) and the four sacks he had a year ago.
They'll get a decent record because their schedule isn't all that tough, though they do get LSU in Week 4.
It doesn't really matter what their record looks like—if this team shows up anywhere in the Top 25, it's overrated.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Michigan State Spartans
4 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 16
CFN's Rank: NR
What the...?!
This team might just field one of the top three offenses in the Big Ten. QB Kirk Cousins is back, as are RB Edwin Baker, RB Le'Veon Bell and RB Larry Caper. WR B.J. Cunningham and WR Keyshawn Martin also return with a decent offensive line to pull the whole thing together.
Those are some of the best parts of the team that went 11-2 a year ago and won a piece of the last three-way tie for the Big Ten championship (they'll play a championship game from now on).
However...
Why They're Overrated
Michigan State was exposed twice last year. Of course, people remember the bowl game (if you can call it that) against Alabama, when it was embarrassed to the tune of 49-7. That was on national television during a much-hyped bowl game. Everybody saw that.
What's often lost is that it was also obliterated 37-6 by Iowa. That would be Iowa of 8-5 infamy. That would be the same Iowa that was supposed to be a dark horse in the national title race but sputtered from Week 3 onward and lost to Northwestern and Minnesota. Yes, the Minnesota that went 3-9.
Think the Spartans are going to repeat last year's performance?
They're missing two-time All-American LB Greg Jones and his counterpart LB Eric Gordon, along with safety Marcus Hyde (their top three tacklers). They're also losing their leader in tackles for loss, Colin Neely, along with CB Chris L. Rucker.
That's a lot of talent from a defense that finished sixth in the Big Ten in total defense a year ago.
Now figure in the schedule. From October 1st through November 12th, it looks like this:
At Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Nebraska, Minnesota and at Iowa.
Of those six teams, only Minnesota is one I would comfortably pick the Spartans to win. In fact, out of those six games, Minnesota is the only team I'd pick the Spartans to beat.
I think CFN is probably right. The Spartans will be very lucky to be ranked anywhere in the Top 25. ESPN has them overrated.
6. Florida State Seminoles
5 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 3
CFN's Rank: No. 5
What the...?!
Jimbo Fisher is the man for the Seminoles, no doubt about it. He pulled down the best recruiting class in the country and has his team back in contention for the ACC title.
What's more, they return nine starters on both offense and defense. Last year's 10-4 record was just a warm-up for what's to come.
They're going to win a lot of games. They're going to look like a million bucks.
However...
Why They're Overrated
They play Oklahoma (ESPN's No. 1 and CFN's No. 3) on September 17th. Miami (FL) comes to town on November 12th. They travel to play Florida on November 25th. That's pretty much it for their strength of schedule.
Oh sure, they play at Clemson, at Wake Forest and at Duke in consecutive weeks, but really?! Okay, they do have Maryland also on October 22nd, but at Boston College isn't what it once was, and Virginia isn't really a problem.
Does anyone else remember Week 2 of last season? You know, the week that Duke lost to Wake Forest, Georgia Tech lost to Kansas, Virginia Tech lost to James Madison (ouch), Florida State was clobbered by Oklahoma, Miami lost to Ohio State and Virginia got beat by USC?
To put it bluntly, the ACC just hasn't shown that it's up to snuff. Going 4-5 in bowl games didn't help much, particularly when the majority of the bigger bowls made up the losses.
Unless this team can play tough with Oklahoma and beat Florida, Miami and Maryland, while bullying everyone else handily, it's still going to have the stigma of "yeah, but they're just beating ACC teams."
The Seminoles might be exciting, and they really might be pretty darn good, but they'll have to do an awful lot to prove that they're No. 3 or No. 5 good.
In my book, they're overrated.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
6 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 18
CFN's Rank: No. 21
What the...?!
Okay, so Georgia got a great recruiting class. It may have even done a good job of addressing its needs. It's got plenty of potential.
QB Aaron Murray is back with a little experience under his belt to lead the attack.
However...
Why They're Overrated
Wide receivers A.J. Green and Kris Durham (top two) are both gone, taking a big bite out of the offense. They also lose LB Akeem Dent.
The schedule doesn't help much.They open against Boise State (yeah, yeah, save it), follow that up against South Carolina and have Mississippi State and Auburn later in the season. Oh yeah, and they end on the road against Georgia Tech.
And this from a team that finished last season at 6-7?
Exactly why should this team be ranked anywhere in the Top 25?
4. TCU Horned Frogs
7 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 9
CFN's Rank: No. 20
What the...?!
Gary Patterson has put together quite a franchise at Texas Christian—enough so that the Big East deemed the Horned Frogs good enough to extend an invitation to join their little party.
TCU's record over the last three seasons is an astounding 36-3. I don't care what conference you play in—that's got to earn a level of respect.
However...
Why They're Overrated
QB Andy Dalton has now moved on. Don't underestimate what that alone means to this program. It's also lost WRs Jeremy Kerley, Jimmy Young and Bart Johnson—three of its top four receivers. That trio combined for 18 touchdowns a year ago.
Wayne Daniels and Cory Grant are also gone from the defensive line and took their 10 combined sacks with them. DB Colin Jones also departed with his 11.5 tackles for loss from a year ago.
Tejay Johnson and Jason Teague—who combined for five interceptions and two touchdowns—are also gone.
Put all of that together: The Horned Frogs are missing their star receiver, two of their biggest receivers and darned near the entire defense.
I get that they play in the Mountain West and even with these losses, they'll likely still pull down at least eight wins.
Still, for ESPN to have this team anywhere near the Top 10 is asking way too much for the losses they're sustaining. CFN is much closer to reality.
These guys are overrated.
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 10
CFN's Rank: No. 6
What the...?!
Okay, QB Brandon Weeden returns to lead a Cowboy offense that should be pretty decent—maybe more than "pretty decent"...maybe really good. WRs Justin Blackmon and Josh Cooper return to give Weeden some steady targets.
Plus, there could be an argument toward the strength of the majority of the Big 12 at this point.
However...
Why They're Overrated
LB Orie Lemon, LB Justin Gent, DB Andrew McGee, DL Ugo Chinasa and DL Chris Donaldson (among others) have all departed from the defense. RB Kendall Hunter is also gone, and that's a very big blow to the offense.
As for the schedule, the Cowboys have road games at Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech. They also have to face Arizona and Oklahoma, though they do get both of them at home.
That's a tough schedule considering the amount of talent they've lost.
I don't see this team making the Top 10, and if it can't make the Top 10, then it shouldn't start there either.
Over...wait for it...rated!
2. Stanford Cardinal
9 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 7
CFN's Rank: No. 22
What the...?!
Nobody with any common sense to them at all can deny how good Stanford was last year. Former offensive coordinator David Shaw was promoted to head coach upon Jim Harbaugh's departure, so there should be some level of continuity there.
Getting QB Andrew Luck back is a tremendous boost, and he should be at the forefront of the Heisman Trophy race.
However...
Why They're Overrated
This was Jim Harbaugh's doing. Sure, Shaw will attempt to carry on what was started by Harbaugh, but that's kind of like having a copy of an original. It pretty much looks the same, but there are slight defects.
On the other hand, if Shaw tries to change anything about the formula the Cardinal have used the last few years, it could spell disaster.
Harbaugh is now sitting in San Francisco, hoping to get the opportunity to coach his new team this season, and don't think he won't be missed.
Luck may be back, along with RB Stepfan Taylor, but WR Doug Baldwin, WR Ryan Whalen and TE Coby Fleener are all gone. They make up the top three receivers.
They're also missing LB Thomas Keiser and Sione Fua from the defensive line. Also, Matthew Masifilo and Brian Bulke are gone from the D-line, along with two-way player Owen Marecic.
The end of the Cardinal season looks like this: at USC, at Oregon State, versus Oregon, versus California (not bad) and versus Notre Dame. Earlier in the lineup, they also travel to Arizona.
That's not terrible, but there are some pitfalls in there, and don't underestimate the seven offensive starters that are no longer a part of the program.
CFN may have them a shade too low, but ESPN has them way too high.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
10 of 10
ESPN's Rank: No. 6
CFN's Rank: No. 13
What the...?!
Am I just riding the anti-the Ohio State train? Nope. I actually like Ohio State and hate what's been going on in Columbus. This is just the way it is, folks.
Ohio State always recruits very well, and there are few coaches in America that have had the kind of success Jim Tressel has had in Columbus. This is one of those teams that rarely ever has to rebuild. It just reloads and keeps notching Big Ten championships.
Do you realize that there are kids lining up to play at Ohio State who weren't even teenagers yet the last time Ohio State failed to win (or share) a Big Ten title?
However....
Why They're Overrated
Yes, QB Terrelle Pryor will return...eventually. WR DeVier Posey will return...eventually. RB Boom Herron will return...eventually. Coach Jim Tressel will return...maybe.
There's so much drama surrounding the program right now that there are bound to be terrible distractions. Obviously, they have to also put together one offense only to change it halfway through the season. It could end up working well, but it could also end up biting them big time.
What if Tressel doesn't return for the 2011 season? Suddenly, at a very bad time of year, the Buckeyes would have to figure out how to carry on without the sweater vest and wouldn't likely start their hunt for a new head man until December.
On a different note, WR Dane Sanzenbacher has graduated, as has RB Brandon Saine. LB Brian Rolle, LB Ross Homan, DB Jermale Hines and DB Devon Torrence are all gone. They are the top four tacklers on the team from a year ago.
What's more, Cameron Heyward and Dexter Larimore are missing from the defensive line.
Finally, Ohio State does get to miss its suspended players during the out-of-conference portion of the schedule, but Miami (FL) is part of that OoC schedule. It also has to take on Michigan State without its suspended players, and you can bet that the Spartans are very hungry to prove that they could have beaten both of their co-champions from a year ago if they'd have had a chance.
The suspended players come back just in time to travel to Lincoln to take on Nebraska, which will also be highly motivated to prove it belongs among the elite in their new conference.
The Buckeyes do get Penn State and Wisconsin at home this year, but the damage could be done early, and they do have to travel to Ann Arbor for "The Game" (which should be much better this year).
I know this is Ohio State, which generally dominates the Big Ten and gets its way into a BCS bowl. Mark my words: Not this year.
The reign of the Buckeyes has ended. No Big Ten championship this year. No BCS bowl game.
To have them anywhere near the Top 10 is to have them OVERRATED!
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
