Boxing: Oscar De La Hoya's Lucas Matthysse May KO Don King's Devon Alexander

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"Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it."

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I quote George Santanyana because ex-world champion Devon Alexander (21-1, 13 KOs) takes on Lucas Matthysse (28-1, 26 KOs) this Saturday in his hometown of Saint Louis.

Alexander is once again a betting favorite. I believe, as in his last two fights, he will put up a losing effort.

Though Alexander is only credited with one loss, a unanimous decision dropped to Timothy Bradley (27-0, 11 KOs) this past January, Andriy Kotelnik is seen by some as his true first loss.

Last August, Kotelnik fought Alexander in his hometown. Alexander started off great with furious machine-gun jabs whipping across the ring to Kotelnik's body and face.

Kotelnik blocked, weaved and threw the occasionally connecting return jab. Kotelnik turned up the activity as the fight proceeded. As he turned up the activity, Alexander's performance became sloppier.

Alexander's fist started dancing through the air around Kotelnik as if no longer able to pierce the target that made itself so readily available at first.

Alexander's speed advantage seemed to be the big story at first, but Kotelnik's timing became the true tale of the fight. Punches landed on Alexander's eyes from directions he couldn't always defend.

He just swung back, generating greater activity and lesser accuracy.

This greater activity mixed with a hometown advantage and three all-American judges helped preserve Alexander's undefeated record.

Kotelnik would have to fly back to Ukraine knowing he did everything he could to win, but circumstances beyond his control snatched victory away like a thief in the night.

One may say that because Alexander was champion, Kotelnik should've won by greater margins to secure the victory.

Others may say the fight was all about preference and deciding who won or lost wasn't as easy as choosing blue or red, good or evil.

Alexander failed to stop Kotelnik's assault from marking him up, leading to a far more crushing loss to Bradley a few months later.

Bradley landed more often against Alexander than anyone had in his whole career. Alexander couldn't figure out a way to keep him off of him.

During his fight with Bradley, Alexander was backed up and beaten off by a flurry of activity.

Alexander was awarded a victory from a fight he wasn't entirely deserving victory for, so he wasn't encouraged to learn from his mistakes.

When he fought Bradley, HBO guaranteed him a million-dollar payday in his next fight, win or lose.

This reward did not encourage Alexander to win. He gave up when the going got tough against Bradley's onslaught.

In steps Lucas Matthysse, who lost his first match via split decision to Zab Judah (41-6, 28 KOs). Some say Matthysse won, while others say he out-thought himself out of a strong victory.

Whenever Matthysse landed he had Judah in trouble, even putting Judah down once. Matthysse didn't throw or land often, because he didn't want to be out-boxed. He was still out-boxed.

After feeling robbed by a hometown decision against Judah, Matthysse fought Demarcus Corley. Matthysse fought with a dizzying layer of activity that put Corley down eight times before finishing him in Round 8.

Matthysse learned his lesson. He fought with more activity and more like an educated brawler than a boxer.

Has suffering a first loss helped Alexander learn his lesson? One can only hope so.

If not, Matthysse's dramatically greater punching power will be his substitute teacher and Alexander may not like its methods.