2011 NFL Predictions: Which Quarterbacks Will Lose Their Jobs to a Rookie?
2011 NFL Predictions: Jimmy Clausen, David Garrard and the Quarterbacks Who Might Lose Their Jobs To Rookies
In every NFL season of the past decade, a rookie quarterback has started at least half his team's games.
There's no reason to expect that trend to change in 2011.
From Cameron Newton to Greg McElroy, there are plenty of opportunities for a rookie to start the majority of his games. But for that to happen, a NFL veteran quarterback is going to lose his job.
Which quarterback might be the one who's regulated to the bench?
Let's breakdown all 12 rookie quarterbacks to see if they present a challenge to their team's incumbent starter.
Jimmy Clausen, Carolina Panthers
1 of 12
Quarterback Rookie
Cameron Newton (No. 1 overall)
Job Security
Clausen should probably get used to wearing a cap because his future in Carolina might all be spent on the bench.
The Panthers have put their entire future into Newton and seem intent on scraping whatever GM Marty Hurney thought they had in Clausen, who was a second-rounder in 2010 and the Panthers first pick that year.
Such is life in the NFL. Clausen was bad in 2010—to the tune of 1,558 yards, three touchdowns and a 58.4 rating in 13 games—and he might not get another chance to redeem himself in Carolina.
This is Newton's team now.
Vince Young/Kerry Collins/Rusty Smith, Tennessee Titans
2 of 12
Quarterback Rookie
Jake Locker (No. 8)
Job Security
To be fair, Young's future in Tennessee was likely over before the Titans drafted Locker, and Collins is scheduled to be a free agent.
Smith, while young, threw four interceptions and had a 25.0 passer rating in two games in 2010. The Titans would be taking a big risk heading into the season with Smith as their No. 1.
Collins has the best chance of retaining a starter's job in Tennessee if he is re-signed, but the Titans might be inclined to find a different free agent quarterback to hold down the job until Locker is ready.
David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
3 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Blaine Gabbert (No. 10)
Job Security
Garrard's career definitely took a hit on the first day of the draft.
The Jaguars were just one win against Indianapolis away from making the playoffs in 2010, but GM Gene Smith decided against bringing in any immediate help to the franchise.
He instead brought in Gabbert, who gives Jacksonville long-term viability but puts this team in limbo between competing for the playoffs and rebuilding.
While Garrard should keep his job for the majority of 2011, the new direction of the franchise stripped Garrard of any job security he previously had.
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Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
4 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Christian Ponder (No. 12)
Job Security
With just three games of major action under his belt, Webb had the Vikings quarterback duties mostly by default.
Sure, he played well in a Week 16 win over the Eagles, but Webb was still a major project at the game's most important position.
This gives Ponder a great chance to overtake Webb on the Vikings depth chart.
In fact, this might be Ponder's job already unless Minnesota brings in a veteran quarterback this offseason. Webb needs more time to develop before he can be considered a full time starter.
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
5 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Andy Dalton (No. 35)
Job Security
Drafting Dalton did very little to impact Palmer's job security in Cincinnati, as his tenuous position with the franchise was obviously due to his retirement threats.
But the acquisition of Dalton does add some intrigue to the situation.
Owner Mike Brown now has a backup plan in case Palmer really retires, and it looks like retirement could be the final recourse for Palmer.
The Bengals offensive revolution starts with Dalton at quarterback moving forward.
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
6 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick (No. 36)
Job Security
Despite being a coming free agent, all indications point to the 49ers bringing back Smith.
If that ends up being the case, Smith should be the starter for the majority of 2011. Kaepernick is a high-ceiling prospect, but he's nowhere ready to be a full time NFL starter.
At this point, Smith is going to be nothing more than a stop-gap for Kaepernick and coach Jim Harbaugh.
But he'll at least have the opportunity to give his career one final revival while keeping the seat warm in San Francisco.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
7 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Ryan Mallett (No. 74)
Job Security
This doesn't even need to be discussed at this point, but it's worth looking into the future plans of the Patriots.
Are the Patriots content on grooming Mallett to be the next starting quarterback? Or is he just a pawn in a future trade?
It's an interesting debate. Brady will be 34 years old in August, and Mallett reminds plenty of people of former Patriots quarterback Drew Bledsoe.
This is still without question Brady's team, and will be for the foreseeable future, but you have to wonder what kind of foresight Bill Belichick made with the Mallett pick.
Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs
8 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Ricky Stanzi (No. 135)
Job Security
At this point, Stanzi isn't a threat to Cassel's hold on the Chiefs starting job. He needs to develop and Cassel is fresh off taking Kansas City to the playoffs in 2010.
But is it too much of a stretch to picture Stanzi as the starter in Kansas City two or three years down the road?
Don't get me wrong—Cassel is a fine NFL quarterback. Throwing for 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions in one season is a solid accomplishment.
Yet I'm not sure how much better he's going to be. Can you ultimately win a Super Bowl with him? His playoff performance (70 yards, three interceptions, 20.4 rating) has to worry fans in Kansas City.
Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
9 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
T.J. Yates (No. 152)
Job Security
Schaub has little to worry about now and likely in the future.
While Yates has some qualities that make him an interesting option, his ceiling may not be higher than a NFL backup.
And let's not forget about Schaub. He leads one of the NFL's most prolific offenses, and he's thrown for over 9,000 yards over the past two seasons.
Only Schaub, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees can lay claim to accomplishing that from 2009 to 2010.
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
10 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Nathan Enderle (No. 160)
Job Security
Enderle finds himself in a similar situation in Chicago as Yates does in Houston.
The Bears are set with Cutler at quarterback, and no knee injury can shake that for the time being. With an improving offensive line, Cutler has the tools to have the Bears in the playoffs every season.
And it could also be that Enderle is nothing more than a career backup. Cutler need not worry about his spot atop the depth chart.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
11 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor (No. 180)
Job Security
Taylor was a good find in the sixth round and his athleticism at the position is an intriguing aspect. But this is still Flacco's team until something drastic changes.
He's taken the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his three seasons, and his statistics have improved every year.
Flacco needs to beat the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, but Taylor doesn't pose an immediate threat to his job. The Ravens will go as far as Flacco will take them.
Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
12 of 12
Rookie Quarterback
Greg McElroy (No. 208)
Job Security
This is one of the more interesting situations to look at.
On one hand, you have two very similar quarterbacks in Sanchez and McElroy. They both are cerebral guys who know how to lead a football team.
But which player has the higher ceiling? Has Sanchez maxed out in terms of his ability? Can he win a Super Bowl?
All legitimate questions to ask.
Sanchez rarely gets enough credit for what he's accomplished in his first two seasons, but McElroy could push him in a few years if he doesn't improve.
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
