Who to Start, Who to Sit–Week 7

Quarterbacks

Start:  Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts. This might be misleading because the Colts defense has actually been great against the pass, and has only allowed one touchdown through the air all season long. But two things make me think that Rodgers is a good play this week. One, here are the teams the Colts have played so far: Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Houston, and Baltimore. Is there an actual decent NFL quarterback on any of those teams? Besides Andre Johnson can you name a receiver on these teams? Maybe a couple, but the Colts have been playing teams that can’t throw, so I don’t think it is necessarily a product of their defense that they have done so well. And Rodgers and the Pack’s attack rank 7th in the league passing the ball, and I think that he will have another quality game this week.

Start:  Matt Schaub, Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions. I hate to pick on the Lions all the time, but they are in such disarray that it is hard not to pick them somewhere in this article. Schaub hasn’t exactly been Joe Montana, but he’s been pretty decent lately, and now gets the third worst pass defense in football who nearly averages giving up two passing scores a game. Andre Johnson has re-established himself as a stud in this league, and Schaub should be able to find him once, and perhaps Owen Daniels or Kevin Walter with another.

Sit:  Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills. Now I’m really crazy! Sit Rivers? Well, it is possible that he might have an off game this week. The Bills have been really tough against the pass, allowing just under 185 yards per game and only four touchdowns in five games. Plus, they are coming off their bye, so they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Now, I’m not saying start David Garrard over Rivers, but if you have a similar or close to it option at QB, give it serious thought, or don’t be surprised if Rivers doesn’t have a huge game this weekend.

Sit:  J.T. O’Sullivan, San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants. After getting everyone excited that San Francisco had finally found themselves their next quarterback, O’Sullivan has certainly come back to reality. He has thrown for under 200 yards in three of the last four weeks and has seven interceptions over that time. The Giants defense will be pissed off after being slapped around by the lowly Browns, and expect them to be all up in O’Sullivan’s grill all game long. He will throw for no more than 225 yards and probably have more interceptions than touchdown passes.

Running Backs

Start:  Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs defense, meet the stud rookie running back. Stud rookie running back, meet the worst run defense in the NFL. The Titans are coming off a bye, which means they should be well rested and ready to run the ball right down Kansas City’s throats. Look for Johnson to approach 100 yards and his fourth rushing touchdown of the season as the Titans improve to 6-0 with six of the ugliest wins in the history of football. But there’s no style points here, wins is all that matter.

Start:  Johnathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints. Ok, Mr. Stewart, this is your last chance. I have been pumping you up all season and you have been disappointing me and fantasy players for the past month. You even allowed an inferior DeAngelo Williams to have a three touchdown game! You are on notice. If you suck this week, I will never suggest starting you again! C’mon, it’s the Saints run defense. They are among the league’s worst and allow average at best and allow over 100 yards on the ground per game, he’s gotta play well.

Sit:  Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens. This crazy-ass Wildcat offense has been working for weeks now, and I can’t figure out why teams aren’t ready for it yet. Brown has been a stud for three weeks now, but this week, Ray and the Boys play the Dolphins. You can try that circus stuff if you want, but I don’t know how successful it will be against Baltimore. They have only allowed one rushing touchdown this week, and only 66 yards a game on the ground. That is not a recipe for success for Brown in Week 7.

Sit:  Julius Jones, Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Baltimore has been stout only allowing one rushing touchdown, then the Bucs have been just a little bit better as they have allowed NO ONE in the end zone on the ground yet this year. That has to end eventually, but I don’t see it being this week against the suddenly wimpy Seahawks. If Matt Hasselbeck is still able to go, look for the Bucs to load the box up as they have no reason to fear Charlie Frye beating them with his arm. Should be a tough road for Jones this week.

Wide Receivers

Start:  Wes Welker, New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos. Everyone seems to be down on the Patriots offense, and for good reason. They have been just a shell of their former selves with Matt Cassel filling in for Tom Brady. But through this whole tough transition, Wes Welker is still putting up decent fantasy stats. He isn’t finding the end zone, which hurts his value, but he hasn’t had less than six catches in any game this year. Denver’s pass defense is rated last in the NFL, so this looks like as good a week as any to play the Patriots receivers.

Start:  Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets vs. Oakland Raiders. I doubt Favre has another six touchdown game in that arm, bu he should have a pretty good matchup against the Raiders. And who has been the most consistent receivers in New York (New Jersey if you want to be technical) this season? It has been Cotchery who has 26 receptions this season, including an eight catch effort last week. Look for Favre and Cotchery to hook up deep at least once in this game, as he could have 100 yards and a score.

Sit:  Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans. The Titans pass defense is ranked fifth in the league, and the Chiefs passing game has looked like it belongs at the high school level at times this season. This has nothing to do with what I think of the talent of Bowe, but it just isn’t a matchup that I expect him to do well against. Led by Courtland Finnegan, the Titans allow just 172 passing yards a game and have only surrendered one touchdown through the air. This is a week to play a better option, unless bye weeks have it so you need to play Bowe.

Sit:  Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals. This might shock you, but the Bengals pass defense is actually ranked fourth in the league at under 175 yards a game. Big Ben has been having a tough season injury wise, but he has been a trooper and been playing through it. Holmes has yet to break 100 yards, catch more than five balls, and has only found the end zone once in five games. While it seemed that he would take over as the go to guy in Pittsburgh, Roethlisberger has still been looking Hines Ward’s way all year long.

Tight End

Start:  Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders vs. New York Jets. The Jets are fifth from the bottom in the NFL against the pass, and Miller should be the best receiving option for the Raiders. You kind of have to throw out last week’s game against the Saints, because nothing was going right for Oakland. Miller has potential to be a young QBs best friend, and if JaMarcus Russell were to have a good game, you can bet that Miller will as well.

Sit:  Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers. Peyton and the Colts finally woke up last week when not many people were expecting it against Baltimore. Every one woke up, except for Dallas Clark of course. Clark has been a bitter disappointment for fantasy owners who were hoping that he could repeat his 12 TD performance from last year. But he hasn’t found pay dirt even once yet this year, and only has 12 catches. The Packers are among the league’s top ten pass defenses, and it could be another tough day for Dallas Clark.

As always, your comments and questions (adds/drops, trades, lineup advice, etc) are welcome at [e-mail]. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Need more Fighting Chance? I am now writing a weekly column over at Bruno Boys Fantasy Football. You can check out this week’s article at http://screamingsports.com/brunoboys/archive/2008/10/15/fantasy-football-week-6-winners-amp-losers.aspx.