Colts-Packers Preview

Sunday afternoon, the Packers (3-3) host the Colts (3-2) at 3:15 PM CDT. It will be the Packers' last game before the bye week, and it is important to go in with a winning record if Green Bay wants to be considered serious playoff contenders.

After starting off with two wins, the Packers lost three in a row before turning things around against the depleted Seattle Seahawks last week. The Packers, expected to contend for the NFC North, are currently in first place, but are just 1-2 at Lambeau Field.

Similarly, the Colts have not been the team they were expected to be. After losing their first two home games, they exploded in Indianapolis against a very good Baltimore Ravens team, scoring 31 points before their opponents answered.

So what can we expect? The Colts are favoured by just one point, and on paper this looks very close.

The Packers are 14th in total yards on offense. Counter to the perception that Aaron Rodgers drops back on every down, the passing game is ranked only 10th. However, Green Bay is actually in the middle third of the league in rushing, ranked ahead of 11 other teams.

On the other hand, the Colts come in with an offense ranked 16th in points and 17th in yards. They are seventh in passing yards, but dead last in rushing. Thus, they appear unequipped to exploit Green Bay's biggest Achilles' heel, their rush defense (ranked 27th); the Packers pass defense is ranked seventh.

The two teams both played the Vikings; the Packers beat them at Lambeau 24-19, and the Colts beat them the following week in Minnesota, 18-15. Overall, the Packers opposition has a composite record of 13-15 (.464) in their other games; the Colts opponents are 9-14 (.391).

Based on this, the advantage would seem to be clearly Green Bay's. However, one must look beyond the surface.

The Colts score an average of 22.8 (16th) and yield 19.4 (ninth) per game, a difference of 3.4. The Packers score 26.7 (ninth) and yield 24.2 (23rd), a difference of 2.5, a slight advantage to Indianapolis. Both teams are +4 in turnover ratio.

However, the Colts are getting healthy—both medically and mentally—and the Packers are not. Sure, they are still missing Joseph Addai and a couple other players, but their list is not as long as the Packers.

Furthermore, the biggest problem the Colts had was Peyton Manning. He was struggling to get back to form after an injury forced him to miss all of training camp, and what the Colts did to the Ravens sent a message to the league that the entire team is back.

I have been as big a Rodgers supporter as anyone, but whom would you rather have under center needing a winning score, Manning or Rodgers? I'd take Manning over anyone but maybe Tom Brady, even Brett Favre on one of his good days.

And that goes for the whole team: The Colts have been in more big games, and they need this win, too. I predict they will get it, 31-27.