Breaking Down the Manny Pacquiao/Shane Mosley Fight

Manny Pacquaio’s fight with Shane Mosley is very possibly the stiffest challenge the Filipino will face since taking on Juan Manuel Marquez.  While the list of fighters that he has defeated is an impressive one, it is impressive in name only. 

While he has defeated some solid opponents, none of them were at their peak.  While Shane Mosley is not at his peak either, he has more left than Oscar de le Hoya and Ricky Hatton. He will also brig a gameplan into the fight, something that Miguel Cotto did not bother doing.

How Much Does Sugar Shane Have Left?

While this is not a prime Shane Mosley, he may have the right style and just enough left to pull off a major upset.  He claims that he has the angles figured out, a claim that I do not dispute, but does he have the speed left to do what he has to do to win?

I would estimate that the Shane Mosley that will enter the ring tonight is approximately 75% of the best Shane Mosley that we ever saw.  Age catches up to every fighter and Shane Mosley is no exception.

Who Will Have The Physical Advantage?

Shane is naturally bigger, and has enough power to hurt Pacquaio if he connects.  Remember, he had Floyd Mayweather Jr. in some trouble early on in their fight. 

The best Shane Mosley was at Lightweight.  He was dominant there and after nine successful title defenses, he moved up for bigger challenges and more money.  While never dominant at Welterweight or above, he beat some good fighters, including Oscar de le Hoya twice. 

The move up in weight to Junior Middleweight was not a wise one and he had had limited success there.  However, he did feel Junior Middleweight power, and that may help him take Pacquiao’s blows better than his predecessors.

Manny Pacquaio has moved up in weight, even more than Mosley.  While he has enjoyed a substantial speed advantage in all of his fights at Welterweight, he will not have that luxury tonight.  Mosley will be the fastest fighter he has encountered in a long time.  So while Manny will be faster, it will not be anywhere near the margin he has been accustomed to lately.

Mosley is a little too old, a little too slow, but will have a puncher’s chance.  Everyone seems to forget that Pacquiao was not given much of a chance to be Oscar de le Hoya prior to that fight.  Maybe it is time for reality to set in and Pacquiao will simply be too small.

Who Has More To Gain?

The legacy of both men is safe.  Each is a future Hall of Famer and one of the best fighters of their generation.  Tonight, with many Pacquaio being a big betting favorite and picked by most to win, he has everything to lose and nothing to gain. 

Shane Mosley on the other hand, is considered by most to be past his prime and simply looking for one last challenge and one more opportunity to make some money.  An unexpected victory by Mosley tonight all but ends the possibility of a Mayweather/Pacquaio showdown.

What Type Of Fight Can We Expect?

One scenario, which I consider to be the most likely, plays out like many of Pacquiao’s recent fights.  The opponent is game for most of the early rounds and doing fairly well, only to realize that they do not have the physical tools or strategy to win the fight. 

Against Mayweather, after some good early moments, Mosley realized that he was not going to win.  While he never quit, he did not seem to fight with the fire needed to win.  This scenario is very possible tonight.

While I believe a knockout is highly unlikely, if anyone does not make it to the end of the fight, it would probably be Pacquaio.  He has not really had to take many hard shots since moving up in weight and the jury is still out on his chin at this weight.  Mosley on the other hand has felt the power of bigger men and has never been unable to finish a fight.

If we get a fight like Cotto/Mosley, we are all in for a treat.  This is a pretty good possibility, but not as likely as the first scenario.  This is the fight we are all hoping for though. Mosley would have to be the aggressor for this to happen and judging by his comments about his strategy, he seems to believe he can win by countering.

I do not think it is likely that Shane Mosley is fighting only for money.  He has always thrived on challenges and does not really have that mindset.  That scenario would lead to Mosley learning that he has no chance to win in the first couple of rounds and simply fighting not to get hurt.  I do not see Shane Mosley going that route. 

Outcome

In the end, we will probably see a fairly competitive fight that is marginally close.  A score of 116-112 is my pick and Mosley will be game until the end.  If this fight took place as recently as five years ago, I think the outcome would be reversed.