Kelly Pavlik By Decision

On 10-18-2008, the current middleweight (160 lbs) champion, Kelly Pavlik, will face the former middleweight and lightheavyweight champion, Bernard Hopkins, at the light heavyweight limit of 175 pounds. The fight will be broadcast on HBO Pay Per View and fight fans can watch it for an ungodly $49.95.

Ungodly, because Bernard Hopkins is rarely in an exciting fight and fans really should not have to pay to see him.

Supposedly, the intrigue of the fight is whether or not Kelly Pavlik can fight effectively at 175 lb or 15 pounds over the weight at which he is champion. There is also intrigue because Bernard Hopkins is 43 years old and although he has lost, he has never been knocked out.

The HBO preview included the usual serious talk from Bernard Hopkins where he goes on and on about how shocked and amazed his opponent is going to be after feeling his power, the opponents going to realize he's not old, and blah, blah, blah.

The problem is, in spite of all his tough talk, Bernard Hopkins has not knocked anyone out in four years and that one guy he did knock out, Oscar de la Hoya, was himself past his prime and way past his best weight as he started his professional career in the 130 lb range even fighting as low as 128 lbs in one fight.

Bernard Hopkins started his professional career in the light heavyweight division at 175lbs. Oscar de la Hoya looked like a dwarf next to Bernard Hopkins and was still able to make it to the ninth round with little punishment while winning the fight on some cards before eventually getting stopped with a punch to the body.

Outside of a small Oscar De La Hoya, Bernard Hopkins is barely able to hurt much less stop guys his own size. Part of this is because of his very limited activity in the ring. Nowadays, Hopkins throws one shot at a time, ties a guy up, poses, and then loses by decision because the other guy just throws more punches than him.

Lately, a victory for Hopkins seems to be effectively using defense to not get knocked out but not being very effective offensively.

In short, Kelly Pavlik is a guy that is always throwing punches. His punches don't seem to have the greatest speed on them but they are just continuous and eventually overwhelming. In this fight, Bernard Hopkins will put defense first while Pavlik racks up points with continuous powerpunching.

Bernard Hopkins will surprise Pavlik with very compact single shots but even if he hurts Pavlik he will not be able to finish him because he is no longer able to continuously throw punches in combination. Furthermore, it's been so long that Hopkins has knocked a guy out that he might have forgotten how.

The ability to finish a guy is a separate art in itself in the world of boxing. A lot of guys can get you hurt but not all know how to finish an opponent. A good example of that was Demarcus Corley.

A great parallel for how this fight should turn out is the Cotto vs Margarito fight. Hopkins will attempt to dance around the ring to avoid punches while throwing an occasional right hand. Pavlik will cut off the ring and wear down Hopkins like he has never been worn down before.

Hopkins will not have the comfort of fighting a southpaw where the opposing angles provide a defensive plus for Hopkins because of his particular style for fighting southpaws. Hopkins will be squared up with Pavlik and the punches that both guys get hit with will come straight down the middle.

In summary, Bernard Hopkins lately does not throw enough punches to win a decision and only a single shot hail mary punch that KO's Pavlik will win him this fight. On the other hand, Kelly Pavlik can win this fight on points because of his continuous punching or by TKO because of his proven power and relentlessness. I pick Pavlik to win based on styles, punching power, and youth.