The Roy Williams Trade: One-Sided Or Fair For Both Teams?

The NFL trade deadline has come and gone without the expected Tony Gonzalez trade. Gonzalez could have improved a number of NFC teams (or AFC for that matter), especially the Green Bay Packers (which would've helped another Cal alum, Aaron Rodgers.) Instead, the tight end is staying with his current (non-contending) team, and will have to wait for the off-season.

Many San Francisco 49er fans were hoping that Detroit Lions Wide Receiver Roy Williams would come to the 'Stick for a third-round or conditional second-round pick. It wasn't to be, as the Dallas Cowboys swooped in and grabbed Roy for a first, third, and sixth-round pick.

At first glance, this appears to be a total ripoff—in favor of the Lions. However, it will probably end up benefiting both teams.

The Cowboys' remaining schedule is (worst-case scenario)

@ St. Louis Rams (Probable win)

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (loss)

@ New York Giants (loss)

Bye

@Washington Redskins (loss)

vs. San Francisco 49ers (win)

vs. Seattle Seahawks (win)

@ Pittsburgh Steelers (loss)

vs. Giants (loss)

vs. Baltimore Ravens (loss)

@ Philadelphia Eagles (loss)

Season: 7-9

Even if the 'Boys beat the Ravens and Bucs at home, (or get an unexpected win or two elsewhere), 9-7 might not be enough to win an NFC Wild Card spot.

And if they do make the playoffs, the first-rounder they send to Detroit won't have nearly as much value as it would on a bad team.

The Cowboys are probably overpaid, but this is not the Herschel Walker trade in reverse. The Lions may be 1-15 like the Cowboys when they made the infamous trade, but one mid-to-low first-round draft pick doesn't make or break a franchise.

There's only one team in the league that can get Randy Moss for a fourth-round pick, and while Williams isn't Moss by any means, he will upgrade the Cowboys' offense.

In the short term, he'll help take the pressure off Brad Johnson, and when Romo returns, Roy will benefit by even more from having Terrell Owens lined up with him.

If the Cowboys hadn't immediately re-signed Williams to 5-year extension, it could have been a disaster. Three picks, including a first-rounder for a rental player in a season that might already be beyond saving? As it is, the Cowboys have a tall, fast receiver that can't possibly embarrass the franchise as much as T.O.

The Lions, on the other hand, parted with their only Pro-Bowl-caliber receiver since Hermann Moore. Their only Pro-Bowl-caliber receiver since Hermann Moore...who was not going to re-sign under almost any circumstances after the season.

A decent first-round and what looks like a mid-third round pick could be used effectively to either move up in the draft and select a quarterback, acquire a veteran in a package deal, or draft one good and one solid player.

Who might the Lions pick? It of course depends on where they end up in the draft order, but here are a few possibilities:

Offense

Quarterback: If the Lions use their top-three pick on a quarterback, this is a pointless exercise, but Tim  Tebow could be available in the mid-first-round if teams are wary of an Urban Meyer, running QB. The Minnesota Vikings might want Tebow and be willing to trade up, netting Detroit some more veterans (although the Lions might want to build from the ground up).

Runningback: Rudi Johnson is not a franchise back, and neither is Kevin Johnson (although he did have a highlight reel run last week.) Either Knowshon Moreno or Chris Wells could be around at 10th-15th overall, and if the top-three pick goes towards a franchise lineman (most likely a tackle,) it would make sense to find a good runner for the revamped line to block for.

Javon Ringer is an in-state product, and would help with ticket sales. He would most likely be picked if the Cowboys' pick is in the 20-25 range, but is still a solid back, and has a similar style to Wells.

Or, the Lions could select Percy Harvin, and pretend he'd be used as a running back.

Wide Receiver/Tight End: I have a feeling there would be a small riot at the draft if this happened, but if Michael Crabtree slips...well luckily for the Lions, that probably won't happen.

Line: Alex Mack would be available in the 15-20 range, but Dominic Raiola is at the position already. If the Lions opted to go the franchise LT route (see above,) it's doubtful they would choose another offensive lineman lower in the first round.

Defense

Tackle/End: Brian Orakpo had a great game against Oklahoma University, and if he keeps performing well, he could end up in the top-10, possibly too high for the Lions to draft him (although they could leverage the extra third-rounder to try and trade up if needed.)

Nose Tackle: Terrence Cody is a big run-stopper. He would definitely be in the Lions' draft range, and could anchor the d-line, as well as run the ball like the Fridge, delighting Chris Berman.

Middle/Outside Linebacker: Brandon Spikes or Brian Cushing are option. If they are lucky enough to be Maulaluga'd, Detroit would have a good start at a revamped linebacking corps.

Cornerback/Safety: Malcom Jenkins will probably go too soon, but Vontae Davis would be a great addition that could help the Lions break out of the bottom of the league in pass defense.

So the Lions and Cowboys pulled off a good trade, one that will probably benefit the Lions more in the long run, but could help the Cowboys advance deeper into the 2009 playoffs than they have in a quite a few years.