How Pavlik must adjust his game plan to beat Hopkins

Kelly Pavlik has never faced a fighter as crafty as Bernard Hopkins. Hopkins is the master at disrupting and frustrating other fighters' favored fight modes. In fact, at this point in his career, Hopkins is more "Frustrator/Counterpuncher" than "Executioner". Although he does not punch in combination and prefers to counter with single shots, Hopkins has won several big fights against quality opponents (see Antonio Tarver and and Winky Wright) by smothering, employing lateral movement, and countering (especially with his right hand). While Pavlik's favorite strategy is to back his opponents into the ropes and string together a non-stop barrage of power punches, I am sure Hopkins will not allow that to happen. And while Pavlik's favorite punch appears to be the right cross to the head, Hopkins is very adept at avoiding that punch... 

In order to win this fight, Pavlik is going to have to demonstrate that he can outbox Hopkins. When Hopkins attempts to duck to his right under Pavlik's right cross, Pavlik will have to follow up with his left uppercut (a good punch for him, which actually helped him knock out Jermain Taylor in their first fight) and keep punching, catching Hopkins while he comes in attempting to smother.  The mistake Tarver made against Hopkins is he attempted to beat Hopkins at his own game: he attempted to potshot/counter Hopkins, and got countered in return because Hopkins is very good at that. Hopkins does not like volume punchers(see the Calzaghe fight), as it is much easier to slip one punch than it is five or six, particularly when the combination comes from someone like Pavlik who punches with much more authority than Calzaghe.... If Hopkins is able to smother Pavlik and negate any punching distance, Pavlik must not allow Hopkins to pin his arm/arms and punch his hips/kidneys; instead,  Pavlik must also employ lateral movement of his own and pivot out of Hopkins' clinches.  The danger for Pavlik if he allows Hopkins to smother and clinch, is that he will get frustrated and attempt to knock out Hopkins by loading up with his right hand, which will leave him open for Bernard's counters.  That is Bernard's overall strategy, smother/frustrate and counter.... Additionally, while boxing from the outside, Pavlik must cut off the ring with his feet and with his fists as Hopkins likes to move to his right because this helps him counter with his right hand more quickly... Obviously, Pavlik is most effective when he traps his opponents against the ropes. If Pavlik is able to trap Hopkins against the ropes, I bet Hopkins will attempt to duck, smother, and clinch, but Pavlik can avoid this by using a backstep with a pivot or a backstep with his own counter. Sounds a lot easier than it is to actually execute, but I believe Pavlik is skilled/experienced/athletic enough to pull this off. While some critics question Pavlik's coordination/skill level,  I believe he has more skills in his arsenal than his critics are aware of, as I've seen him look very slick in sparring footage, albeit against lesser opponents... 

To summarize, then, if Pavlik thinks he can just back up Hopkins with a double jab and right hand and knock Hopkins out that way (as he has against other opponents), he will likely lose a decision to the crafty veteran. If, on the other hand, he is able to adjust with back steps, pivots, and  lateral movement to avoid/escape Hopkins' smothers/clinches, all the while using his lead hand to uppercut, hook, and jab repeatedly, this will in turn frustrate/disrupt Hopkins's game plan,and in that case, Pavlik is likely to win a unanimous decision and possibly even stop Hopkins.