FootballGenerals Week 6 Head Coach Rankings

The Associated Press bestows a well-known annual Coach of the Year award based on the opinions of a panel of 50 broadcasters and writers, but there's no statistical analysis to back up what is a "conventional wisdom" award based largely on wins, losses, and playoff performance. FootballGenerals' Coach Ranking is the first unbiased statistical analysis based on the performance of each head coach.

Every week of the NFL season, FootballGenerals.com ranks the 32 professional football head coaches based on their performance.  Using publicly available data, the Coach Ranking methodology analyzes relevant variables to quantify the level of discipline and performance a coach gets out of his players. Here is the analysis for Week 6:

Early Coach of the Year Candidates

Coming off a bye week, Jeff Fisher holds onto the top slot in the FootballGenerals.com head coach ranking with a score of 450.87.  Fisher and the Tennessee Titans have been dominant thus far, and Fisher holds an 85 point lead over Dick Jauron, who is ranked second.  The 85 point differential is by far the largest between any two slots, as Fisher continues to dominant the rest of the league.  The Titans are ranked first in win percentage, turnover ratio, red zone efficiency and record against the Vegas spread, which reinforces Fisher’s high ranking.

Jim Zorn and the Washington Redskins lost to a hungry St. Louis Rams team in Week 6, and fell one slot to number 3 in the ranking.  For the first time this year, the Redskins lost the turnover battle, as they gave up three fumbles and only recovered one from the Rams.  The Skins went from leading the league in turnover ratio, to being tied for 3rd place (along with 5 other teams) which contributed to Zorn’s fall in the ranking.

Close to Being Dangerous

Tony Dungy was a big mover this week in the ranking as he jumped from 14^th place to 5^th.  Dungy used a dominating performance in the turnover battle in Week 6 against the Baltimore Ravens to help catapult his rise in the rankings, as the Colts finished the game with a +5 turnover ratio. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers also came up with a dominating win in Week 6, helping Jon Gruden leap up to 7^th in the ranking.  Gruden has his team playing above expectations, evident in the fact that the Bucs are now an impressive 4-1-1 against the Vegas spread, helping him climb up the rankings. 

Even in a loss, Tony Sparano continues to have his team executing at a high level.  The Miami Dolphins are below .500 with a 2-3 record, yet Sparano is still currently ranked as a top ten coach.  The next highest ranked coach on a 2-3 team is Romeo Crennel, who currently holds the 19^th slot. 

Even though the Dolphins have played a tough schedule thus far (four of their five opponents have won at least three games), Sparano has the team playing disciplined football - the Dolphins are ranked 5^th in penalty yards and 4^th in red zone efficiency, helping Sparano stay high in the ranking.  

Overrated?

America’s Team got beat physically as well as in the coaching facet of the game in its humbling Week 6 loss at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals.   Wade Phillips has not had his team executing plays on a consistent basis all year and Week 6 was no different as the Cowboys surrendered 93 yards in penalties against the Cardinals.  Phillips continues to fall in the ranking, going from the 13^th slot to the 20^th.  He needs to instill more discipline in his squad, as the Cowboys are ranked 30^th in the league, averaging 67 penalty yards a game.

Bottom Feeders

The Marvin Lewis firing squad is getting warmed up as the Cincinnati Bengals fell to 0-6 after another loss, this time to the New York Jets.  Even though the Bengals won the turnover battle 3-1 in Week 6 and only gave up 23 yards in penalties, Lewis cannot excuse the 171 net yards of total offense.  More people will be calling for Lewis’ dismissal this week, and it is justified given his 31^st ranking, but we do not expect him to get fired until after the season is over.

Mike Holmgren is having a horrible season is his last year with the Seattle Seahawks.  The negative trends that have been evident all season were on display in Week 6, as the Seahawks lost the turnover battle 2-1 and were outscored in the two minute warning 7-0 by the Green Bay Packers.  Holmgren needs to do a better job with clock management and have his team hold onto the football if he wants a shot at the playoffs and move out of the cellar in the rankings. 

Here are the rankings, but go to www.footballgenerals.com for more detail.

COACH	RANK	SCORE
Jeff Fisher	1	450.87
Dick Jauron	2	365.65
Joe Zorn	3	364.34
Mike Tomlin	4	356.97
Tony Dungy	5	351.90
Mike Smith	6	350.52
Jon Gruden	7	342.75
Tony Sparano	8	341.72
Eric Mangini	9	339.30
Tom Coughlin	10	338.00
John Fox	11	336.95
Ken Wisenhunt	12	333.28
Andy Reid	13	330.00
Norv Turner	14	321.62
Mike Shanahan	15	319.78
Lovie Smith	16	317.36
Mike McCarthy	17	310.41
Sean Payton	18	306.40
Romeo Crennel	19	301.83
Wade Phillips	20	293.90
Brad Childress	21	282.43
Bill Belichick	22	279.77
Jack Del Rio	23	275.81
Herm Edwards	24	263.61
John Harbaugh	25	256.67
Mike Nolan	26	256.46
Tom Cable	27	211.91
Gary Kubiak	28	211.23
Rod Marinelli	29	201.92
Jim Haslett	30	200.08
Marvin Lewis	31	197.83
Mike Holmgren	32	188.73