Expect Few Changes From Pavlik, Hopkins at 170 Pounds

Regardless of who wins when Kelly Pavlik and Bernard Hopkins meet in Atlantic City’s Boardwalk Hall, there’s a pretty good chance the boxing world will see something it’s never seen before. It could be Pavlik, the reigning middleweight champion, tasting defeat for the first time. Or it could be Hopkins, the master craftsman from Philadelphia, finally passing the torch he’s steadfastly refused to let go.

In case the fight needed any additional intrigue, it’s being contested at a catch-weight of 170 pounds.  Pavlik has never entered the ring that heavy, though he did tip the scales at 169 pounds for his August 2005 TKO of Vincent Harris. Hopkins has been campaigning at or near the light heavyweight division for the last three years, and he dropped down to 170 for his July 2007 win against Winky Wright.

Boxing history is full of examples of fighters who climbed up too many weight classes and saw either their power or speed drop considerably, but don’t expect that to happen to Pavlik.

The pride of Youngstown, Ohio made his professional debut at junior middleweight, making Saturday’s fight only about 15 pounds from where he began his career. It shouldn’t affect his conditioning either, which is crucial because Hopkins has never been knocked out.

Pavlik’s game plan should look much the same as it would at middleweight, with him coming forward and throwing combinations behind his jab. Despite an impressive KO percentage of nearly 90 percent, he hasn’t been as much of a one-punch finisher since he stepped up his level of competition about two years ago.

Pavlik may have to be a bit more patient to see his punches add up since Hopkins is used to being hit by bigger men, and he has to be prepared to go 12 rounds—which he’s done only once, in his second fight with Jermain Taylor.

Hopkins has shown he can outmuscle opponents coming up in weight to meet him, as he did to Oscar De La Hoya four years ago. But he’ll be looking at a man with almost exactly the same height and reach in Pavlik, and it’s no stretch to think they will be roughly equal in strength too.

Fortunately for Hopkins, his best bet strategically is to do what comes naturally at this point in his career. He’ll look to use his entire bag of defensive tricks to keep Pavlik from establishing a rhythm, and he’ll have no qualms about clutching and holding as often as he sees fit. Hopkins is also one of the best in the business at fighting off the ropes, allowing him to set traps if Pavlik wades in too recklessly.

Joe Calzaghe can attest that The Executioner still has power in his right hand, and it’s possible a counter right could catch Pavlik in the same way. Just don’t be surprised if he pops right back up. This has the look of a fight that will go the distance with both men doing what they do best, and the fact that it’s being contested at 170 pounds won’t do much to change that.