2011 Kentucky Derby Odds: Chances of Each Horse Winning the Triple Crown

If there is one thing almost everyone can agree on, regardless of who we are betting on or who we want to win, we all want to see the first U.S. Triple Crown champion since Affirmed in 1978.

Since Affirmed beat Alydar to the wire in the Belmont that year, more than 1 million thoroughbreds have been born on hundreds of farms, from the Bluegrass of Kentucky to the surf of California, and not one has been able to sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes over the five most beautiful weeks of spring.

Smarty Jones got caught in the final half a furlong. Charismatic broke down as he approached the wire. Spectacular Bid stepped on a nail the morning of the Belmont. Real Quiet got caught in the final stride to lose a nose.

After 33 years, we all want that one horse who will capture our imagination and finally sweep the Triple Crown. 

Okay, maybe not everyone. I'm sure the Canadian audience, spoiled as it is, is scoffing at the idea. We've had, what, five Triple Crown winners since you last had one, you'd say.

Heck, from 1989 to 1991, we had a horse sweep the Triple Crown every single year! And that's fine, you can root against our dreams. And I understand the British fans have more to mope about, as no horse has swept the colt Triple Crown since Nijinsky II in 1970. Nijinsky II is the only Triple Crown champion since World War II.

But for every cold-blooded American, isn't it about time we finally had a champion to call our own? Is this finally the year the same horse passes the wire first in the three most incredible races in our country? 

Which horses have the best chance to win the Triple Crown this year? Well, let's take a look.

Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Shackleford, Twice the Appeal, Watch Me Go

This list is brought to you by the number zero

Thank you, come again!

Animal Kingdom, Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man, Toby's Corner, Twinspired

Noel Vasquez/Getty Images

LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 19: NBA Commissioner David Stern addresses the media before the start of NBA All-Star Saturday Night at Staples Center on February 19, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Noel Vasquez/Getty Images)

You can make a decent case for any of these horses in any one of the Triple Crown races, but all three? Not even if David Stern had any influence over horse racing.

10. Pants On Fire

It's a craze, I tell you

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Because racing needs him to win the Triple Crown. I mean, with a name like that, people will go crazy if he's the best horse on the planet. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Because he's really just not good enough. College football would be awesome if Wave Ryder were great, but he's not. That's why he plays for Utah State.

9. Brilliant Speed

Beep! Beep!

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Stamina, stamina, stamina. I absolutely love this horse for the Belmont Stakes. If he runs the race of his life in the Derby and comes back against a much smaller field in the Preakness, it could be a waltz in the Belmont. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He won't win the Derby. And definitely won't win the Preakness. And if you don't win the Derby or the Preakness, not only can you not win the Triple Crown, but no one will care when you win the Belmont (unless you are me cashing in a 40-1 score).

8. Stay Thirsty

He's the most interesting horse in the world

 WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He's better than his odds. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He's 50-1 and he's not that much better than his odds.

7. Master of Hounds

Excellent...

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: The Europeans. They are so hell-bent on proving that their racing is better than ours, they might as well send one of their B-teamers to win our marquee race. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Our racing is a lot better than they give us credit for. Workforce, their reigning horse of the year, is half-American. Americain, the horse that won Australia's marquee race, is American. Japanese racing, which is heavily, heavily, heavily populated by American sires and bloodlines, recently celebrated an emotional 1-2 finish in the Dubai World Cup over a litany of European horses. American racing isn't weak, will never be weak, and you can suck it Europe.

6. Soldat

Soldat apparently is French for soldier. I don't speak French. If I'm wrong, sue me.

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: His two starts before the Florida Derby are as impressive as anyone in the field, and he's shown he can perform well both on a fast going track and in the mud. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He needs to be on the lead. He won't be on the lead in the Derby. Plus, if he does get the lead and strolls to Belmont, everyone will be gunning to beat him any way they can. Think Smarty Jones in 2005. Finally, I just don't think he can make the 1-1/2 of the Belmont.

5. Santiva

I did a google image search for "funny horse" because I have no idea what a Santiva is.

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Bloodlines. And because his last start, the Bluegrass, deserves to be deleted from every and all past performance sheets. He's much better than that start. If he steps up his game, which his breeding says he can, he could be a force in each and every leg. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He's gotten himself into trouble before. It's a short run to the first turn in the Belmont, and it's the first turn that has been his unraveling. He may need some post-position luck.

4. Dialed in

Sorry Chief, but he missed it by that much!

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He's a tough little thing, he is. The first two names that pop up for Classic breeding, Mineshaft and Storm Cat, just so happen to be his sire and damsire. He could be 10 lengths better than this field. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He'll be coming from dead last against a healthy, sensible pace. His last-to-first in the Florida Derby was off a wicked pace. It's hard to pass 19 other top horses, many of whom should have something left, off of intelligent fractions. The Derby just doesn't shape up well for him.

3. Uncle Mo

Amnatga Nabeetem has dialed in! Anyone? Amnatga Nabeetem?

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Because Arazi won the Triple Crown after a tremendous juvenile year. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Wait, Arazi didn't win the Triple Crown off of his unbelievable juvenile year? Oh, and Indian Charlie. I'll believe that a son of Indian Charlie can go 1-1/2 miles when I see it, which in layman's terms would be the same as me saying, "I will never believe that a son of Indian Charlie can go 1-1/2 miles."

2. Nehro

At least we came in second sixteen times in a row!

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: He's by Mineshaft out of an Afleet mare. He should be sturdy and can strut his stuff at all three Classic distances. Plus, he's only getting better. There's a lot to like about Nehro. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Triple Crown winners know how to get their noses up in time. Nehro is always a bit too late. He'll play a part in the story, but he might have a severe case of seconditis.

1. Archarcharch

Or the year after that. Or the year after that. Or the year after that...

WHY HE WILL WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: The exact opposite of Nehro: He knows how to win. And Oaklawn has been a successful training ground for successful Triple Crown campaigns for successful horses. 

WHY HE WON'T WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN: Because I picked him. Other than Smarty Jones, I've never correctly picked a Derby horse. Archarcharch is good, but he's no Smarty Jones, and Smarty Jones didn't get it done. And there's that off-cited fact that no horse with the same syllable repeated three times in his name has ever won the Kentucky Derby, duh.