2011 Kentucky Derby: Has Nehro Slipped out of Contention?

Nehro is a young and potent threat with the pedigree to run the distance at the 137th Kentucky Derby. This colt is perhaps one of the fastest in the slowest group of horses to run this prestigious race in some time.

Nehro is the son of multi-million dollar thoroughbred Mineshaft and comes from the genetic pool that trails back to 1977 U.S. Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew.

The colt was bred in Kentucky and purchased for $170,000. Nehro's owner, Ahmed Zayat, is rebounding from the disappointment of having Derby favorite Eskendereya withdrawn last year because of an injury.

Two of the strongest colts to survive the demands of America's biggest horse race were Big Brown and Curlin. Nehro might not be the anomaly those two horses were, but definitely has the potential to be a contender.

This year's crop of horses is one of the slowest in some time, which would give Nehro an advantage. Heading into the Kentucky Derby, the colt has a Beyer Speed Figure of 98.

True, the Beyer Speed Figure is just one barometer used to measure these racehorses. The norm is 100 for the Derby.  Big Brown was 106 in 2008, Barbaro was 103 and defying the norm, Mine That Bird was rated at a dismal 80.

Archarcharch and Nehro have the highest Beyer Speed Figure of the 20 Derby thoroughbreds and also finished one-two in the Arkansas Derby. Nehro finished second by a neck in that race.

This will be the third race for Nehro in six weeks. He has continued to improve and could easily be a 10-furlong horse just like his sire, Mineshaft. He has two seconds and a win in five starts.

Post position will have an impact on the kind of start Nehro gets, but the demanding 1.25-mile distance may not be a problem for the horse that seems to be more of a closer.

The slower pace of the 137th Kentucky Derby may mean it is a jockey's race as opposed to a super-horse that dominates. There doesn't appear to be a horse in this field that has the ability to steal the show.

Nehro is trained by Steve Asmussen, whose colt, Curlin, finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. The jockey is Corey Nakatani, who has won more than 3,400 races. Nakatani has a strong reputation and should be a good pilot for Nehro.

Lady Luck could be your best friend for the upcoming Derby. Logic and statistics may have little to do with the outcome of the 137th Derby.

Many think that lack of experience is a disadvantage for Nehro, but it may be a case of the horse not knowing the challenge he faces and just running his heart out for a win, place or show slot.

Certainly Nehro is not among the favorites, but quite often being a favorite does not equate to a top finish or win.

Naysayers may count out Nehro, but this colt just may be a strong contender who can run fast and will head to the front under the guidance of Nakatani.