Fantay Football's Week Seven Start/Sit

By Fantasy Dr X. (Antonino Buccellato)

Note: Your Fantasy Doctor will fill in for Chad Samuels this week. He will resume the column next week.

Another week of fantasy football is past us and, hopefully, we have learned an invaluable lesson, to start your studs every week, if you have them, that is. This lesson translates ultimately in that you can never discount the force and the heart of a champion or two.

Living proof of this argument finds witnessing in what Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison did last week vs. what was to be believed an impossible to perforate Ravens’ secondary that had been playing at a level similar of their fantastic 2000-'01 season.

Marvin Harrison was labeled as a must sit, unless you had better options, across the fantasy world. Yet he connected with Manning on two touchdowns in three passes for 87 yards. The most telling, a quick 67-yard strike that set the tone early in the game and turned the momentum in favor of the Colts the rest of the game.

In spite of public opinion, that goes to show how determinant starting a stud that can transform a game in a New York minute is.

Every week, there are going to be starters that fail to produce expected stats and “bench” players that exceed theirs. This is life in the fantasy football world and around the NFL in general. We just have to live with and learn from it.

That leads us to Week Seven Start/Sit of the 2008 Fantasy Football season.

Start of the week

It’s safe to say that not every fantasy RB can have success unless the matchup is favorable.

Such is the case this week with Titans’ rookie Chris Johnson, who made a splashing exordium into the league with mercurial outings of 93 yards, one TD in Week One, and 109 yards, one TD in Week Two to start the season. That propelled fantasy owners to entrust Johnson as a must-start stud the rest of the season.

In fact, most studs should be started regardless of matchups, and Johnson doesn’t fall into that category yet, as his 44 rushing yards and no TD vs. Baltimore in his last game before the bye prove.

Before that, in Week Four, he faced a Minnesota team that is not doing much these days but failing expectations, that makes stopping the run its bread and butter. Johnson produced a lukewarm 61-yard performance against them but scored two short TDs.

However, there is good news for his fantasy owners this week as he gets ready to face a weak Kansas City run defense that has allowed 178.6 rushing yards per game and a 100-yard rusher in three of their five games played this season to the likes of Darren McFadden (164), Michael Turner (104), and DeAngelo Williams (123).

In the other two games where they didn’t allow a single runner to mull the century mark, they still yielded way above 100 yards combined to runners as it was the case in Week One vs. New England (104 to two runners), and Week Four vs. Denver (99 yards to three runners).

The only reason why the Broncos’ runners didn’t have a field day against them was that the Denver team itself is susceptible to the run, as Larry Johnson had his best game of the season (198 yards, two TDs) in that contest.

Having made the point that this one is a very favorable matchup for Chris Johnson, he gets the nomination of “Start of the Week,” and as such, should be penciled in every fantasy lineup.

Running Backs to start

Another good RBs matchup this week, as hinted above, is to start whomever is facing the Broncos (134 rushing yards a game). However, this week there is a potential problem for fantasy owners: Who knows whom the Patriots’ feature back is anymore, or if they have one?

Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan, and Kevin Faulk will all be RB3 material this week or worthy of a flex spot in desperate situations, at best trying to split those 134 yards equally.

Lawrence Maroney has been pictured in milk cartons all over the nation, and until someone finds him, don’t bother starting him.

Another struggling RB that could have a good week is Ryan Grant of the Packers. Grant faces a Colts’ team that allowed 180 yards a game on the ground before their majestic performance against the Ravens’ runners in Week Six when they only allowed 39 yards rushing.

Even with that performance, the Colts are still yielding 152 rushing yards per contest. It seems as if the Colts sport a soft run defense in even-numbered year (2006–2008) and a stout one in odd-numbered years (2005–2007), and with that, Grant, who finally neared the century mark in Week Five with a career-high 33 attempts, can be counted on to live up to his high draft pick’s expectations.

Following the same “resurgent backs” path, Thomas Jones of the Jets goes against a Raiders run defense that hasn’t allowed many yards on the ground (507 in six games for an 84.5 average), but has been touched for eight rushing TDs, which is among the league’s worst. He should be able to crack one into the end zone this week and be a diligent start.

When a team, Detroit, allows 154 yards a pop via ground, you start the running back that plays opposite it that week. This week, another instant impact rookie, Steve Slaton of the Texans, gets to reap the benefits of such mismatch running into lanes bigger than the Grand Canyon.

Quarterbacks to start

A great matchup to exploit this week in the QB department is the one of the Bills coming off a bye week going up against a team that has given up the most yards on the year to opposing signal callers with 1,602 (league’s worst) with 10 TDs. (tied for third most in the NFL).

That team is the San Diego Chargers and the beneficiary of such trend is either Trent Edwards or capable backup (once starter) J.P. Losman, depending on how Edwards recovers from his concussion suffered in Week Five vs. Arizona.

Monitor the Bills’ QB situation this week and start either one according to the starting status. The only downside is that the Chargers secondary has six interceptions on the year.

In Week Seven, start Texans Matt Schaub, not for his late-game heroics (QB draw against Miami that gave the Texans their first win of the season), rather because of his fairly easy matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed 262 passing yards a game and nine TDs to QBs in five games.

To make this start even safer, know that Detroit only has accounted for only one INT this season.

Speaking about secondary that have only been able to pick only one pass this year, and have allowed eight TDs thru the air, start the QBs going against those two defenses: Jeff Garcia of the Buccaneers and Jon Kitna of the Lions who will face the Seahawks and Texans respectively.

Wide Receivers to start

The Dolphins have made strides and exceeded expectations with their 2-3 record in this young season, but in the fantasy football world, the win-loss record column doesn’t matter much. What matters, instead, is to know that they have been vulnerable to opposing WRs in the tune of 196 yards a pop. The eight aerial TD allowed rank 31st in the league.

Derrick Mason of the Ravens should have a great day, especially in PPR leagues, with the added potential bonus of finding the end zone.

Muhsin Muhammad of the Panthers has a good-looking chance of doing some damage against a Saints’ team that gives up an average 174 receiving yards and almost a TD every week.

Now that Marc Bulger has regained his starting job in St. Louis, look for him and Torry Holt to connect on a few passes. This week they face a Cowboys’ secondary that has given up one TD per game and 170 receiving yards on average.

Another decent option at WR, after your studs spots will exhaust, is Antonio Bryant of Tampa Bay against Seattle. The Seahawks are responsible of surrendering 188 receiving yards and one TD a game en route to a dismal 1-4 record. If you own Garcia and him both, now it’s a good time to start them as a fantasy combo.

Tight Ends to start

The dearth at the tight end position creates a problem each week in fantasy football. There are just not many favorable matchups to look at on a weekly basis.
After a couple of must starts each week, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten come to mind. All we are left to do is look for trends that can produce an advantage.

This week, Robert Royal of the Bills fits the bill. His opponent, the Chargers, is the worst team in the league defending tight ends. As evidence, San Diego has been torched for five TDs on the season while giving up 73 yards to TEs each game.

However, the Bills’ primary means of offense are RB Marshawn Lynch, Trent Edwards, and Lee Evans, therefore, mild your expectations on Royal this week and take whatever points he can get you as an unexpected gift.

The Eagles, who are weak defending TEs, are on bye, so, the “favorable matchup” TE pool gets even thinner.

Dustin Keller of the Jets provides a small relief as...

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