Pan Report: Prelude to a Super Fight; GSP V. Shields Numbers for UFC 129

Too many superlatives have been used to hype tonight’s UFC 129 main event featuring the current UFC WW champion Georges St-Pierre (21-2) and No. 1 contender, Jake Shields (26-4-1).

“Biggest threat yet” sums up the outrageous rhetoric employed to make the already established “biggest show in the promotion’s history” bigger than it already is.

Hyperbole? No doubt.

Perusing through GSP’s record shows he has been pitted against better and unmistakably more well-round competitors.

Names, there are plenty. Two victories over BJ Penn, twice over Josh Koscheck, twice over Matt Hughes, Thiago Alves and Jason Miller. He has fought top competition in his weight class in the most stacked promotion on the planet for the past five years—the better part of these spent defending his title.

Shields’ competition has gradually improved to reach second-tier level in rival promotions such as Elite XC and Strikeforce, to name the most recent ones. While a Strikeforce fighter, the renowned Cesar Gracie BJJ black belt has chalked up an impressive UD win over Dan Henderson and a controversial UD over Jason Miller, both as a MW.

His UFC debut at WW last October was less-than-stellar, earning a split decision win over Martin Kampmann. Fans will recall for the latter fight that Shields’ weight-cutting strategy had caused him to be severely dehydrated, impacting his takedown capacity and, more generally, slowing him down to the point where his grappling, to repeat his forte, appeared completely ineffective.

GSP’s strength, conditioning and skills should have him dictate the pace of this fight at will. Look for him to utilize his four-inch reach advantage over Shields early, establishing a perimeter to ensure he can defend Shield’ inevitable takedowns and enable him to bring the fight to the ground on his own terms.

It is equally expected that Shields will have concentrated his efforts during training camp on avoiding looking overly silly immediately after the bell signals the beginning of a round.

At best, his boxing is awkward and his Muay Thai on bended knee, begging to be improved.

Beyond the hype, observers will have noticed GSP is the overwhelming favourite (-450) against Shields (+325). Odds enthusiasts who looked at futures for the projected longevity of the fight inevitably grinned as they saw that fans anticipate as the likeliest outcome (+100) a five-round decision favouring GSP.  

Wagering wisdom thus has GSP retaining both of his current titles, those of WW champion and the other one, shared with UFC WW rival John Fitch, that of decision artist par excellence.

Odds for early stoppages run from an unlikely (+375) stoppage in the first stanza to a slightly less unlikely stoppage (+275) in the third.  

The upshot to this much expected, bordering on uneventful, successful sixth title defense by GSP might be his increasing willingness to consider moving up a weight class and face Anderson Silva, the current UFC MW champion and arguably the best pound-for-pound MMA fighter.

In an interview given to mmafighting.com days ago in Toronto, UFC President Dana White said he wouldn’t shy away from holding negotiations with both fighters were they to win their respective scheduled fights.

Silva is tentatively set to defend his title against Yushin Okami at UFC 134: Rio. Futures for that fight are trading at (-400) for Silva and (+300) for Okami.

Looking past September 2011 at a possible fight between the two best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, current lines favour Silva (-175) over GSP (+145).

Lines by Betus.com

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