Michael Turner: Does "The Burner" Have an On-Off Switch?

In his first season with the Atlanta Falcons, Michael Turner has been impressive, then not-so, then impressive, then not-so, then impressive, and once again not-so-impressive last week.

The former Northern Illinois Husky busted out in Week One with a franchise-record 220 yards with two touchdowns on 22 carries against the Detroit Lions. The Falcons and fantasy owners of Turner looked like Nostradamus. Then, in Week Two against Tampa Bay, Turner turned in a not-so-impressive 42 yards on 14 carries. The fantasy owners felt like Miss Cleo.

In this season’s odd-numbered weeks, Turner has averaged 2.0 touchdowns, 23.6 carries, and 148.3 rushing yards for a 6.28-yards-per-carry average. Those are Hall of Fame numbers.

In even numbered weeks, Turner's averages of 0.0 touchdowns, 19 carries, and 50.6 rushing yards for a 2.6-yards-per-carry average make him look like the next LaMont Jordan.

What are some reasons for Turner’s up-and-down numbers each week? Well, let's take a look at who he has played.

In Weeks One, Three, and Five, Atlanta faced Detroit, Kansas City, and Green Bay. As of Oct. 13, those are the 31st-, 32nd-, and 27th-best run defenses in the NFL. Yes, part of their horridness is due to Turner, but after 16 combined games these teams have given up 1.25 rushing touchdowns and 167.8 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry. 

In Weeks Two, Four, and Six, Atlanta faced Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Chicago. Now we are talking about the NFL's fifth-, 10th-, and 15th-best run defenses. After 18 combined games, their collective stat line is 0.3 rushing touchdowns and 89.8 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per carry.

Clearly, Turner has been excellent against the poor rush defenses in the league and below average against the top rushing defenses in the league.

What can we conclude from all of this? 

Well, from a fantasy perspective, Turner does well when he is supposed to. After a Week Seven bye, he will go up against the Philadelphia Eagles, the league's 11th-best rush defense that's given up an average of 91.5 yards per game on a 3.5-yards-per-rush average. If you have another option on your fantasy squad, I would tell Turner to take a seat. 

The Falcons have New Orleans in Week 10, a Week 12 rematch with Carolina, a Week 15 rematch with Tampa, and a Week 16 matchup with Minnesota. These would all be wise times to give Turner a break. 

You will want to make sure Turner is in the lineup for Week 11 against Denver and Week 17 (if you are still playing) against the Rams. 

Week Nine against Oakland should be a good start; the Raiders have given up eight rushing touchdowns in five games and seem ready to implode. In Week 13, Atlanta faces San Diego, which will be an interesting faceoff against Turner's former teammates.

Do the math, don’t let Michael Turner’s streaky play be the reason your fantasy team struggles.