Who Has the Easiest Road to the BCS Title Game?
With half the season now gone, it's about that time to start taking a hard look at who the real national title contenders are and who has the best chance of making the BCS title game.
We all know it's better to lose early than late, but with some tough schedules ahead for a number of teams, you could very well see some teams lose late this season and still make the title game, much like LSU did last season.
Let's take a look at the top 12 teams in the USA Today Coaches' Poll and see how each team's schedule is shaping up and who has an easy road compared to the teams with a brutal schedule still ahead of them.
Each record next to the team is the record of their remaining opponents and the winning percentage of the rest of the schedule.
1. Texas 27-9 (.750 %)
Missouri, Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, Baylor, at Kansas, Texas A&M
2. Alabama 19-17 (.530 %)
Ole Miss, at Tennessee, Arkansas State, at LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
3. Penn State 20-13 (.606 %)
Michigan, at Ohio State, at Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State
4. USC 19-23 (.452 %)
at Washington State, at Arizona, Washington, Cal, at Stanford, Notre Dame, at UCLA
5. Texas Tech 27-9 (.750 %)
at Texas A&M, at Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, Baylor
6. Oklahoma 27-9 (.750 %)
Kansas, at Kansas State, Nebraska, at Texas A&M, Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State
7. Florida 23-13 (.640 %) **Counted Div. I-A Citadel as 0-6
Kentucky, Georgia, at Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Citadel, at Florida State
8. BYU 24-14 (.632 %)
at TCU, UNLV, at Colorado State, San Diego State, at Air Force, at Utah
9. Georgia 27-9 (.750 %)
Vanderbilt, at LSU, Florida, at Kentucky, at Auburn, Georgia Tech
10. Oklahoma State 25-11 (.694 %)
Baylor, at Texas, Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at Colorado, Oklahoma
11. Ohio State 23-9 (.719 %)
at Michigan State, Penn State, at Northwestern, at Illinois, Michigan
12. Missouri 23-13 (.640 %)
at Texas, Colorado, at Baylor, Kansas State, at Iowa State, Kansas
Here's how the top 12 looks ranked by strength of schedule the rest of the way:
1. Texas (.750 %)
1. Texas Tech (.750 %)
1. Oklahoma (.750 %)
1. Georgia (.750 %)
5. Ohio State (.719 %)
6. Oklahoma State (.694 %)
7. Missouri (.640 %)
7. Florida (.640 %)
9. BYU (.632 %)
10. Penn State (.606 %)
11. Alabama (.530 %)
12. USC (.452 %)
Looking at what each team has left in the season, I'd say that Alabama, USC, and Penn State are sitting in great position with only one or two big games left, and USC and Penn State even more so with no conference title game in their future to play another great team again.
USC has a big game coming up at Arizona, but they shouldn't lose again this season. For Penn State, it all comes down to games at Ohio State and at home against Michigan State.
The Big 12 will be a round robin basically. It started with Texas-Oklahoma and Missouri-Oklahoma State this past weekend, and it continues this weekend with Missouri-Texas and Oklahoma-Kansas. The Big 12 teams will beat each other up for the rest of the season, and then it will come down to the Big 12 title game to decide who will have a shot at the BCS title game.
Florida made a huge statement with their big win over LSU, and even though their opponent winning percentage looks tough, it's deceiving in my mind. They have Georgia coming up, but their SOS is helped by overachieving 5-1 Vanderbilt, a misleading 4-2 Kentucky team, and a 4-2 Florida State team that looked less than impressive against their best team so far in Wake Forest.
Georgia is hanging around and has the schedule to make up for their loss to Alabama. It all comes down to the Florida game for the Dawgs. If they win that game, they are back in the title hunt—they lose, and it's over for this season.
BYU has a great shot at going undefeated, but they will have probably their two toughest games of the season at the very end, and both on the road. Games at Air Force and at Utah will be tough to navigate, and even if they do go 12-0, I don't see the Utes getting in the title game with all the really good teams that are ahead of them right now.
Now we get to the Buckeyes. You remember them, right? That team that has gotten destroyed the past two title games and was pushed aside after their embarrassing loss at USC?
Well, don't look now, but they are hanging around, and with two big time games the next two weeks against Michigan State and Penn State, the Buckeyes have a chance to make a huge statement and announce themselves back in the race if they were to go 2-0 in those games.
If they get by those two games, they will likely go 11-1 and watch everyone around them lose while they move up the polls. I know it's a scary thought, but don't be surprised if the Buckeyes creep back in the picture.
Making a prediction halfway through the season and looking at the schedules left, I think that USC is sitting in a great position to make it to the title game, and I'd say they play either Texas or Florida.
The reason I say Texas is because even with their tough schedule the rest of the way, they can lose a game and still make the Big 12 title game. If they get to the Big 12 title game and win it and go 12-1, they most likely will make it to the BCS title game.
Florida has to get by Georgia in a couple of weeks. If they do that, they shouldn't lose another game and would be in the SEC title game at 11-1.
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