NFL Draft 2011: Best-Case Draft Scenarios for All 32 NFL Teams
Twenty-four hours and counting until the 2011 NFL draft at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. The rumors have been flying around the country left and right. Disinformation, denials, smokescreens and lies have all been the norm.
The time to finalize draft boards is upon us and time for teams to try to feel each other out to see who is warm to the idea of trading up or trading down. There is no real official word yet on the free agency situation, so at least we don't have to worry about some team simultaneously signing a deal with an expensive free agent while they are also on the clock.
Without any trades having been announced yet, we are going to attempt to identify what would be a fairly realistic, ideal draft scenario for each of the 32 NFL teams based on what we think their main needs may be. What actually happens may be far different than this, especially if a trading frenzy ensues tomorrow.
We will look forward to determining how many of these scenarios came to fruition and which ones were a total miss.
It is shaping up to be an exciting draft tomorrow. Enjoy.
The Labor Situation and Potential Free Agency
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As this article is being crafted prior to the start of the draft, please note that there is no final word yet as to when free agency will begin, according to the recent rulings by the court. As long as we do not have any definitive word on when free agency begins, we will proceed with identifying the best draft scenarios as team needs appear to be right now, on April 26th.
Whenever free agency does finally begin, teams will be able to look at their draft haul and prioritize what free agents and what positions they have to address as they prepare for the new season.
If free agency starts concurrent with the draft for some odd reason, then this article becomes moot, since the top needs of a team could literally be filled at the end of Round 1 by signing a veteran free agent. For this article, we are not going to be talking about potential free agents.
Now that we have cleared that up...
Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals finished the 2010 season with an offense that was ranked 31st in the NFL and a defense that wasn't much higher, as it was ranked 29th. Being awful on both sides of the ball means that the Cardinals are primed to improve everywhere, so they literally could go in any direction.
But, as we all know, this is a QB-driven league, and their QB situation is a mess. Ever since Kurt Warner retired, the Cardinals have seen Matt Leinart bomb, and then it was Derek Anderson. The team needs to identify a new QB, whether it is a rookie or a veteran free agent.
Holding the fifth pick, the Cardinals would like to have a multitude of players available that are the best player at their respective position still on the big board.
At No. 5, they could be looking at Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson and Robert Quinn. Ideally, they would also have the option of Von Miller as well. But, the realist in me says that Newton, Green, Miller and Marcell Dareus will already be gone.
So, if they are left to pick between Gabbert, Peterson, Robert Quinn, Nick Fairley and Julio Jones, is that such a terrible thing? If Carolina gets cold feet on Newton, it is not out of the question that he could slide down to No. 5. That would be an interesting option for the Cardinals to consider.
No matter what happens, they are going to be landing an elite player and somebody they can build the team with.
There is also the prospect that the Cardinals trade down from No. 5 and try to pick up additional high-round draft picks. Since we don't know how low they might be prepared to go, it is difficult to project who they would then be looking at as their top options. But, we wanted to include this option, as it appears to be gaining some momentum on the eve of the draft.
Atlanta Falcons
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Since I knew that the Falcons finished with the best record in the NFC at 13-3 and the second-best overall record in the NFL, I was a little surprised when I did my research on this article to learn that they finished the year as only the 16th-best team in both offense and defense in 2010. In other words, middle of the road.
A team that won so many games with a middling offense and defense? It just didn't seem to jive.
So, obviously there is room to improve on both sides of the ball. Drafting out of the 27th slot in the draft, the Falcons are thought to be mostly interested in landing a talented defensive end. Several names that continue to pop up on their wish list are J.J. Watt (Wisconsin defensive end) and Adrian Clayborn (Iowa defensive end). Of the two, Watt is probably gone well before 27, but Clayborn may still be there.
The Falcons are also thought to be exploring the possibility of trading up in the first round to land a big-time receiver. If they see Julio Jones drop down the board, the calls will begin in earnest.
The Falcons had also been potentially interested in local product Justin Houston (Georgia linebacker) but with the breaking news that he had failed a drug test at the NFL scouting combine, it would not be a surprise if that news sent the Falcons scurrying away from him.
As the draft works into day two, Atlanta will probably be looking to make an addition on offense. Names that pop up range from Kyle Rudolph (Notre Dame tight end), Randall Cobb (Kentucky wide receiver), DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma running back) and Jerrel Jernigan (Troy wide receiver). Falcons should have better luck with multiple options there in the second round for them, but Rudolph may well be gone by pick 59.
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Baltimore Ravens
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The Baltimore Ravens still boast one of the best defenses in the NFL but they will need to find a way to improve their 22nd-ranked offense if they want to take the next step up. Yet, the Ravens are talking defense with their first pick, as they are looking to add either a cornerback or a defensive lineman with their first-round pick at 26.
The best-case draft scenario would be that talented Colorado corner Jimmy Smith is still on the big board when their turn is up. Many teams will stay away from Smith due to his off-field issues, but Baltimore is confident that they could keep Smith on the straight and narrow, and keep him focused and productive.
Another option would be Muhammad Wilkerson, the defensive lineman out of Temple. Ideally, the Ravens would like to see both players there at 26, and then they can draft the player that they have ranked the highest.
When the draft turns to the second round, look for the Ravens to snag a wide receiver, with options like local kid Torrey Smith (Maryland) and Titus Young (Boise State) being mentioned most often. Should Brooks Reed (Arizona DE) fall down in the second round to Baltimore, that might be another attractive option for them.
Buffalo Bills
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For Buffalo Bills fans, a perfect scenario would be that the Carolina Panthers draft Cam Newton, another team trades up with the Denver Broncos and grabs Blaine Gabbert before the Bills could draft him. If it plays out this way, then the Bills will have their choice of the three best defensive players in the draft in Marcell Dareus, Von Miller and Patrick Peterson.
If that situation played out, I believe the Bills would draft Dareus. If Dareus instead goes to the Broncos, then the Bills would draft Von Miller. If the Bills ignore their rush defense—ranked 32nd in the league—and take a QB like Gabbert, you will see Bills fans lining up to jump over Niagara Falls in droves.
The Bills are probably hoping to land an elite athlete to address their woes on defense in Round 1 and then see what is awaiting them on the big board as day two unfolds. They might be disappointed that some guys they were counting on are gone, but if that happens, that probably means some other players fell that they weren't expecting to.
Ideal draft scenarios at pick 34 could be a QB like Christian Ponder (Florida State) or Colin Kaepernick (Nevada), an inside linebacker like Martez Wilson (Illinois) or a defensive lineman like Stephen Paea (Oregon State), Phil Taylor (Baylor) or Cam Heyward (Ohio State). There might even be some tempting offensive linemen such as Danny Watkins (Baylor) or Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State).
Either way, the Bills expect to start out the first two rounds with two very talented players.
Carolina Panthers
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As far as ideal best-case draft scenarios go, what is better than holding the first overall draft pick? Okay, having the second-round first pick would be a nice thing to have as well, I understand that.
Since the Panthers have their pick of the litter, they need to figure out who will make the most impact on both a short-term and long-term basis. Although there have been some waffling comments going on between Cam Newton and Marcell Dareus, it appears that the Panthers are likely to roll with Cam Newton, the Auburn QB, as the top draft pick.
Newton will be an exciting player, but the Panthers will have to stay on top of him. They will need to make sure that he stays committed to football, stays out of trouble and doesn't get into a long, protracted holdout. Whenever the Panthers deem that he is ready to play, they will need to keep a support system in place so that he is not too discouraged by immediate failure or taking his lumps.
Since the Panthers do not hold a second-round pick, they will have a long wait until they are back up again at 65. By then, a whole slew of talented players will be gone. One player that might be a nice addition to the interior defensive line is Clemson defensive tackle Jarvis Jenkins. He figures to go either in Round 3 or 4.
Chicago Bears
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The Chicago Bears reached the NFC championship game in 2010 with an offense that was ranked 30th in the NFL. If the Bears plan to advance past that level, they need to improve that offense several notches.
The Bears appear to be open to a number of different positions at this juncture, but seem to be most concerned about being stronger on the line of scrimmage. So what exactly would be an ideal draft scenario for them? How about a strong option at each position they are looking to upgrade? On the surface, that would appear to be a solid wish.
From a position standpoint, the Bears could address the hole at their defensive line to replace Tommy Harris, or pick up a talented wide receiver or offensive lineman.
With their pick at 29, Bears fans can only hope that some combination of these players is still on the big board, including: Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh wide receiver), Stephen Paea (Oregon defensive lineman), Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin tackle) and Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State tackle).
If two or three of those players are still there, you would think that Chicago would be happy with that outcome. In the second round, they might hope to find Marvin Austin (North Carolina defensive lineman) still on the board. That would be a steal if they can get Austin there.
Cincinnati Bengals
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The Cincinnati Bengals finished the 2010 season with the 20th-ranked offense in the NFL. That was with Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Fast forward one year later, and there is a distinct possibility that they will have none of the trio.
So, what does Marvin Lewis do at the draft? For starters, they did hold a week-long job interview with the North team at the Senior Bowl, where Lewis was exposed to a wide array of strong seniors that will be tempting to add to his team.
With regards to their first draft pick at No. 4, the Bengals could find Auburn QB Cam Newton sitting there, an elite receiver in A.J. Green or the best cornerback in the draft with Patrick Peterson. In fact, it is possible that they might have their choice of any QB in the draft if Carolina decides to pass on Newton.
Given such an array of possibilities, what will the Bengals do?
From an ideal draft scenario, the ability to pick and choose between elite athletes like Green, Peterson and Newton is something that doesn't happen very often. I believe that players like Marcell Dareus and Von Miller aren't options, because they will be off the big board when the Bengals are on the clock. Given their options, I don't think they will be complaining.
If they opt to pass on a QB with the pick at No. 4, don't be surprised if they try to scoop up Andy Dalton when their turn comes back around in the second round. That might make tremendous sense.
Cleveland Browns
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Is there any team that seems to have their draft preference surrounded by more mystery and intrigue than the Cleveland Browns?
Here we are, literally days away from the start of the draft, and you have national draft experts coming out with comments like: "We aren't really sure what the Browns want to do."
For starters, the Browns need to address both sides of the ball in this draft. From the 2010 season, the offense was ranked 29th and the defense was ranked 22nd. That means with so many needs, the Browns could go in multiple directions with their first pick at No. 6 overall.
What is the most ideal draft scenario for Cleveland? How about to have a number of elite athletes sitting there and available on your big board? If the Browns had their druthers, they would like to be able to pick and choose between an elite quarterback or two (Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert), a great wide receiver (Julio Jones), the best corner in the draft (Patrick Peterson) and a fierce pass-rusher or two (Nick Fairley and Robert Quinn).
If all of those options are in fact there, the Browns can then pick the highest-ranked player on their draft board and know that they hit a home run.
When it gets down to day two, the Browns are hoping to see Adrian Clayborn or Torrey Smith available as their next choice. It should be an interesting draft for Browns fans. If you have an idea, please log a comment or two with what you think they are going to do.
Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys had a disappointing season in 2010. The record was one thing (6-10). Not being able to play in a Super Bowl that they were hosting is another.
Of greater importance should be improving a defense that was ranked 23rd in the NFL. Or, how about trying to improve upon just one playoff win since 1996?
America's Team? That is up for debate. More like, what have you done for me lately?
Sitting there with the ninth overall pick in the draft, the Cowboys have been talking about adding an offensive tackle like Tyron Smith (USC) or a defensive lineman like J.J. Watt (Wisconsin). Either player would be a strong addition to helping them out at the line of scrimmage. There has also been plenty of talk about Nebraska corner Prince Amukamara with the first-round pick.
From an ideal scenario, having their choice of all three players seems to give the Cowboys a certain degree of confidence that they are adding a quality player and can choose the one that graded out the highest.
When they are up again at pick No. 40 in the second round, they could find their corner then in Ras-I Dowling (Virginia) or possibly Brandon Harris (Miami, Fla) might fall to them there to give them another option.
Denver Broncos
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The Denver Broncos finished the 2010 season with the worst defense in the NFL. They need help across the board, so who is the best possible defensive player that the Broncos could draft? Denver owns the second overall pick, so they are in the driver seat already in many ways.
If Carolina goes ahead and drafts Cam Newton, then that is an ideal scenario for Denver on multiple fronts. If the rest of the NFL is afraid that the Buffalo Bills are going to draft Blaine Gabbert, teams might start ringing the Broncos' phone off the hook with offers to move up. The Broncos could just say "No thanks" and focus on drafting whoever the highest-ranked defensive player is on their draft board.
I don't know how that top-ranked player would be anybody other than Marcell Dareus. The Alabama linebacker is able to make everyone around him better. He can help in stuffing the run and caving in the pocket around the passer. He will raise the level of play of the other defenders around them. If Carolina does draft Dareus, then the Broncos have their pick of Von Miller or Patrick Peterson.
It should not be ruled out that the Broncos just might want to draft Von Miller with that second pick.
The Broncos have two selections in the second round at 36 and 46. Continuing with the defensive theme, there are at least five players that should be there during the second round for consideration: Stephen Paea (Oregon St. def tackle), Rahim Moore (UCLA safety), Brandon Harris (Miami, Florida corner), Ras-I Dowling (Virginia corner) and Martez Wilson (Illinois linebacker). That group offers up some nice talent to improve the Broncos defense.
Detroit Lions
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The Detroit Lions finished the 2010 season on a roll, but they still need to improve on both sides of the ball if they want to become a winning team. The Lions finished the year ranked 17th in offense and 21st in defense, so there is room for improvement.
Holding the 13th pick in the draft, what would be the ideal scenario for Detroit? Perhaps an impact corner, or a strong pass-rusher that can line up next to Ndamukong Suh.
Trying to project who would make sense, you have potential strong corners like Prince Amukamara (Nebraska) and Jimmy Smith (Colorado). From the defensive line, you would have Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson) available for you as well. Assuming that all three of those players are sitting there at 13, there shouldn't be too many unhappy Lions fans.
There is some age on the Lions offensive line, so another possible direction is a tackle like Anthony Castonzo (Boston College), who should be there as well.
When the second round rolls around, Detroit might be interested in adding a running back like Mikel Leshoure (Illinois) or a linebacker like Bruce Carter (North Carolina). The Lions will benefit from these first two picks and look to continue their march towards respectability.
Green Bay Packers
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The reigning Super Bowl champions, the Green Bay Packers, are sitting in the drivers seat in many ways. They are on top of the world, but when it comes to the draft, they are at the bottom looking up, as they will have to patiently wait for 31 names to be deleted from the big board before they are on the clock.
What would be the ideal draft scenario for the Packers? They seemingly don't have many holes or weaknesses. Going around to the various mocks, you see the name of a defensive lineman here, or maybe an outside linebacker there. Continuing with that theme, you could insert the name of Cameron Heyward (Ohio State defensive end) or Brooks Reed (Arizona defensive end) as a couple options that should probably be available at the end of the first round.
When we approach the end of the second round, the Packers might be on the lookout for another corner, and Curtis Brown from Texas might still be there on the big board.
What is quite possible is that Ted Thompson might be besieged with calls from teams wanting to trade back in to the tail end of Round 1. So, the Packers may wind up with no picks in the first round, but multiple picks in Round 2 and/or 3.
Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans entered 2010 as a team that was thought to be on the verge of making the playoffs. A funny thing happened on the way to the Forum: Their defense abandoned the team, as they finished 30th in the NFL in team defense. Righting the defense is the main priority in this draft.
So, with the 11th overall pick in the draft, what would be the ideal scenario for Houston? Obviously they are looking to add a defensive stud, but who and what position?
With the 11th pick, they should be able to find a J.J. Watt (Wisconsin defensive end), Robert Quinn (North Carolina defensive end), Aldon Smith (Missouri defensive end), Prince Amukamara (Nebraska corner) or Cameron Jordan (California defensive end). They might even see Da'Quan Bowers (Clemson defensive tackle) on the big board as well.
If all five of those names are still there, you would think that the Texans would just draft the highest player on their board. Coming down to the second round, they will probably look to add more defense, and maybe they will find a Brandon Harris (Miami corner) or Jabaal Sheard (Pittsburgh defensive line) sitting there to keep stockpiling some more talent.
Indianapolis Colts
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The Indianapolis Colts will be signing quarterback Peyton Manning to another contract extension as soon as the free-agency window is officially opened. That one piece of business ensures that the offense will be humming for years to come.
When the 2010 season ended, the defense was considered to be the side of the ball that needed work, however, as they were ranked 20th in the NFL.
So, besides protecting Manning, and shoring up the defense, what players would the Colts ideally expect to see on the big board when they are on the clock with the 22nd overall draft pick?
It appears that protecting Peyton is a big concern, but improving the defensive line is another desire. So, if you have your choice of offensive tackles such as Nate Solder (Colorado) and Anthony Castonzo (Boston College), along with a defensive lineman like Corey Liuget (Illinois), that appears to be a strong trio to pick from.
Whichever position they choose to address, they will look at the other position in the second round, but if a receiver like Leonard Hankerson is still on the board at 53, that might be a more tempting option.
Jacksonville Jaguars
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In 2010, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a potent enough offense, but the defense prevented them from going further with their season. The defense was ranked in the bottom five of the NFL at 28. That has to improve for the Jaguars to advance to a higher level.
The Jaguars are sitting at the halfway point of Round 1, holding the 16th overall draft selection. If they stay put at 16, they will have observed whatever trends are already happening, but should still see quite a few options available to them.
From a best-case draft scenario, it appears that finding a defensive lineman that can apply pressure to the quarterback is tops on the Jaguars wish list. Two players that could very well be there are Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and Aldon Smith (Missouri). Either one of these players should be able to fit the bill, so the Jaguars can go with the player that they assigned the highest grade to that fits their system the best.
In the second round, we are talking about who is still there at pick 49. Ideally, the Jaguars would like to have their pick of a couple options. Those would be Colin Kaepernick (Nevada QB) and Rahim Moore (UCLA safety). Either player would be a great value pick here in the draft.
Kansas City Chiefs
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The Kansas City Chiefs made great strides last year in capturing the AFC West crown and making an appearance in the playoffs. But since they have not won a playoff game since 1993, they would like to see that fact come to an end; they will need to continue to improve their overall talent.
Holding the 21st overall pick in the draft, what is the best-case draft scenario for the Chiefs? They are open to getting better at the line of scrimmage, on either side of the ball. So, the ideal pick of offensive tackles would include having multiple options like Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin), Anthony Castonzo (Boston College) and Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State). Mike Pouncey (Florida) might also be available.
On the defensive side, options could include J.J. Watt (Wisconsin) and Corey Liuget (Illinois). Of the six names we raised here, the Chiefs would hope that at least one of them is still on the big board.
Dropping down to the second round with the 55th selection, the Chiefs may be open to players like Kelvin Sheppard (LSU linebacker), Sam Acho (Texas defensive end/linebacker) or Leonard Hankerson (Miami, Florida wide receiver).
Miami Dolphins
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The Miami Dolphins offense appears to be a total mess right now.
They were ranked 21st in the NFL last year, but this is a unit that could be sinking fast. The team appears to have faith in starting QB Chad Henne. The dynamic running-back duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are both free agents, and neither one may be back. Bill Parcells has left the building. Lastly, Brandon Marshall was stabbed by his wife and needed to be rushed to the hospital.
The Dolphins need a solid draft in the worst way. What do they do with their first draft pick? Do they make a reach at a quarterback to replace Henne, or do they take a running back even if there will more-than-likely be quality backs still available throughout day two of the draft?
From a best-case draft scenario, the Dolphins hope that the only two quarterbacks off of the big board when they are on the clock at 15 will be Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert. That way, they would have their pick of the rest of the class: Jake Locker (Washington), Ryan Mallett (Arkansas), Christian Ponder (Florida State), Andy Dalton (TCU) or Colin Kaepernick (Nevada). They then could go ahead and draft the guy that they believe is the best short-term and long-term answer.
If for some reason there has been a significant enough run on quarterbacks to dash that plan, there is always Mark Ingram (Alabama running back) as a fallback option. Either way, there should be a talented player available that should allow the Dolphins to restore some spark for the offense in 2011.
Minnesota Vikings
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Brett Favre is gone.
The Minnesota Vikings will need to learn how to cope without Favre and his on-again and off-again retirement antics and plug someone in at quarterback that they know they can count on for the next 8-10 years. But who exactly should that be?
Coming into the draft, the Vikings finished 2010 with an offense that ranked 23rd in the NFL. They have been taking long looks at the quarterbacks available in this draft class, but there is only so much they can control with the 12th overall pick.
The Vikings figure that the top two quarterbacks—Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert—will be gone by the first eight picks or so. The wild card is Washington, who may decide to take the third QB with the 10th pick, and that might be the guy the Vikings wanted. What if Carolina decides to ultimately pass on Newton, forcing him to plunge down the draft board?
From an ideal draft scenario, nothing could possibly be better than for teams above the Vikings to have cold feet on the quarterbacks and go in a different direction. We have to assume that at least two quarterbacks will be gone, leaving the Vikings to have their pick from Ryan Mallett (Arkansas), Jake Locker (Washington) and Christian Ponder (Florida State). If Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) dropped down to the Vikings at 12 for some reason, I suspect he would leap to the top of their wish list.
If the Vikings are the team with cold feet on the QB class, they will probably have a crack at Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson defensive lineman, or Aldon Smith, Missouri defensive end, who could go a long way towards upgrading the aging defensive line.
New England Patriots
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Tom Brady had another solid year and led the Patriots offense to a solid season. But the defense is the unit that needs to be addressed, as they finished 2010 as the 25th in the NFL. They have been retooling an aging defense, so the growing pains were to be expected.
The New England Patriots will take a back seat (presumably) during the first half of the first round of the NFL draft. When we finally arrive at overall pick No. 17, the Patriots then own the draft from that point up until pick 92. Holding six picks in the first two days at 17, 28, 33, 60, 74 and 92 is quite an accomplishment and can be attributed to the savvy of Bill Belichick.
From an ideal draft best-case scenario, what can be better than holding that many picks? How about holding more picks than just those six?
That could easily happen, as it is not out of the question that the Patriots' picks at 28 and 33 will be in play, as teams scramble to trade up to grab the last few remaining quarterbacks on the board.
Rather than go ahead and list the best 40 of 50 prospects available to New England over the first two days of the draft, let's just say that they have so many options on who to add that it is mind-boggling. Here are just a few of the many examples of best-case scenarios:
Mark Ingram (Alabama running back), Akeem Ayers (UCLA linebacker), Mikel Leshoure (Illinois running back), Cam Heyward (Ohio St. defensive end), Mike Pouncey (Florida offensive lineman), JJ. Watt (Wisconsin defensive end), and Cam Jordan (California defensive end).
When it is all said and done, I will be quite surprised if the Patriots don't walk away from the draft with a bevy of new talent and a better outcome for the 2012 draft, as they currently only hold five draft picks for next year. I expect that number to change by the time Saturday night has arrived.
New Orleans Saints
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The New Orleans Saints followed up their Super Bowl championship by losing a first-round playoff game in Seattle in 2010. To lose to a team that finished the year with the 28th-ranked offense and the 27th-ranked defense had to be very disappointing.
But the Saints will indeed march on.
From an ideal best-case draft scenario, the Saints are hoping to find some defensive line help sitting there on the big board when their pick is up at 24. Their best options would include: Adrian Clayborn (Iowa), Phil Taylor (Baylor), Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple) and Corey Liuget (Illinois). Besides the defensive linemen, the Saints would also consider adding Mark Ingram (Alabama running back) if he is still on the board there.
If the Saints do draft a defensive lineman in the first round, they then could look at other running backs in Round 2 with the 56th overall pick, such as Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) or Daniel Thomas (Kansas State).
New York Giants
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After a 10-6 record in the 2010 NFL season, you would think that there weren't a lot of problems or holes on the New York Giants team. But they have been out of the playoffs for the last two years running, so something isn't exactly right with this team.
Coming into the draft, the Giants hold the 19th overall draft pick. From all indications, they appear to covet an offensive lineman with that pick. So, in a best-case drafting scenario, who would ideally be on the big board when the Giants are on the clock?
The Giants would like to see anybody from Anthony Castonzo (Boston College), Mike Pouncey (Florida), Danny Watkins (Baylor) and Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin) available for their pick. From there, it is just a matter of going with whoever they have assigned the highest grade to.
In the second round at pick 52, don't be surprised to see the Giants look at a running back, and candidates there could include Mikel Leshoure (Illinois), Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) and DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma).
New York Jets
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After two-straight trips to the AFC championship game, there probably isn't that many needs for Rex Ryan's team, right? Between free agency and retirement, Ryan finds that he does have some potential holes to fill.
With the 30th overall pick in the draft, the Jets look to be addressing their defense—specifically, the front seven. The four names I keep hearing attached to the Jets are Phil Taylor (Baylor defensive tackle), Akeem Ayers (UCLA linebacker), Brooks Reed (Arizona defensive end) and Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple defensive lineman).
In a best-case draft scenario, all four of these players would still be there on the Jets' big board and then they can pick and choose which one they like the best.
After that, they don't draft again until late in the third round with the 94th pick, so they will hope to see some quality wide receivers still on the board there. Some possible names to consider there would be Jernel Jernigan (Troy), Vincent Brown (San Diego St.), Edmond Gates (Abilene Christian) and Austin Pettis (Boise State).
Oakland Raiders
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The Oakland Raiders made some positive steps in their program in the 2010 NFL season. When the dust settled, the Raiders finished in the top half of the NFL in both offense and defense. But, they have yet to return to the playoffs since 2002, and that's after all the bottom line for Al Davis and his "Commitment to Excellence."
In the 2011 draft, the Raiders are the only NFL team without a first-round pick, having dealt that to the New England Patriots for nose tackle Richard Seymour. So, the first pick for the Raiders will occur at 48, which will kill Al Davis, as he watches a number of players with elite speed being crossed off of his big board.
Trying to project who is still there at 48 is hard, so let's just say that there are a number of directions that Davis could go there. From an ideal draft scenario, on the offensive line, he would hope to see people like Danny Watkins (Baylor), Stephen Wisniewski (Penn State) or Brandon Fusco (Slippery Rock).
He might also find quarterback Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) still there. Another possibility is a corner, so how about Ras-I Dowling (Virginia).
This is not an ideal draft for the Raiders because of them missing out on so many upper-echelon players. They will have to hope to hit some home runs in day two and day three and then follow that up in free agency to plug their other holes.
Philadelphia Eagles
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The Philadelphia Eagles seem to be almost an automatic team in the playoffs each year. Last year they did it again, as under Andy Reid, they have now gone to the second season nine times in the last 12 years. That is a very impressive run.
One way they have been able to keep stockpiling talent is by spinning off their excess talent (Donovan McNabb) and now they plan to do it again shortly with Kevin Kolb. That probably won't help them for the upcoming draft due to the labor issues, but it will for 2012.
In this draft, the Eagles currently hold the 23rd overall pick. Their team needs seem to range from corner, to defensive line to offensive line. In a best-case scenario, the Eagles would still have names like Jimmy Smith (Colorado corner), Aldon Smith (Missouri defensive end), Danny Watkins (Baylor offensive lineman) and Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State tackle) on their big board. If that is the case, my projected guess is that they would draft Jimmy Smith.
In the second round, the Eagles draft at 54 and names to look for there are Clint Boling (Georgia guard) or Ras-I Dowling (Virginia corner).
Pittsburgh Steelers
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For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the 2010 season ended one game short of their preferred destination, but winning the AFC championship and watching Ben Roethlisberger mature in the process will have to suffice as consolation prizes.
The Steelers will be staring up at the rest of the NFL as they hold the 31st overall draft pick. There is not much they can do about it, unless they feel strongly that they want to trade up for a player that they have to have.
Word earlier this week that the Steelers might be interested in trading up to reunite Florida lineman Mike Pouncey with his twin brother Maurkice has proven to be unsubstantiated.
So, what would the ideal draft scenario be for the Steelers if they stay put at 31? Well, for starters, that would be a freefall of Mike Pouncey to them there, but that seems highly unlikely. Instead, the Steelers should have their focus on offensive linemen like Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State), James Carpenter (Alabama) or Danny Watkins (Baylor). Another option would be a corner like Aaron Williams (Texas).
If all of those players are still there, the Steelers would be pleased. With the second-round pick at 63, the Steelers might tap a cornerback, so a player like Johnny Patrick from Louisville might be available there.
San Diego Chargers
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With the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense in all of the NFL in 2010, what do the San Diego Chargers need to improve on? The Chargers currently hold the 18th overall draft pick and the predominant thought right now is that they want to add an impact player on defense there.
From an ideal draft scenario view, the Chargers would like to have their choice between Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue), J.J. Watt (Wisconsin), Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple) and Akeem Ayers (UCLA). Chances are good that at least one and probably two of those names should still be there at 18 to pick from.
Where the Chargers hope to clean is with their two picks in the second round at 50 and 61. Those two picks could result in an edge rusher or a solid defensive lineman and a wide receiver. Ideal defensive pick options there would include Allen Bailey (Miami, Fla), Sam Acho (Texas) and Dontay Moch (Nevada). For the wide receiver, options are Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh), Torrey Smith (Maryland) and Titus Young (Boise State).
San Francisco 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers finished the 2010 season with an offense that finished 24th in the NFL. They have a quandary at quarterback in that they aren't sure if they want Alex Smith back or not. What they do at the draft will probably go a long way towards determining what Smith does next.
The 49ers haven't tasted the playoffs since 2002, so they would like to add an elite athlete at the seventh pick in the draft to help them move up the ladder. Is there any more elite of an athlete than Patrick Peterson, the LSU corner?
It seems as long as Cam Newton has been linked to the Carolina Panthers, Peterson has been linked to the 49ers—perhaps even longer.
In an ideal draft setting, the 49ers would have their choice between Peterson and the entire crop of quarterbacks. That, however, seems unlikely, as one or two of the the quarterbacks should be gone before the 49ers are on the clock. So between Peterson and the other QBs like Gabbert or Locker, this would appear to be the ideal scenario for San Francisco.
Assuming that they draft Peterson, when they come back on the clock at 45, it is possible that a quarterback might still be there like Ryan Mallett (Arkansas) or perhaps a running back like Mikel Leshoure (Illinois). They might even see a stud defensive tackle still on the board in Stephen Paea (Oregon State).
Either way, they figure to have landed two very interesting players by the end of Round 2 and are poised to go forward under new head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Seattle Seahawks
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The Seattle Seahawks had a strange season in 2010. They finished the year with the 28th-ranked offense in the NFL and the 27th-ranked defense. They finished with a 7-9 record, yet somehow won a first-round playoff game, knocking off the defending Super Bowl-champion New Orleans Saints in the process.
Go figure.
As we come into the draft, the Seahawks hold the 25th overall pick. There is the prospect of "local kid makes good," as Washington QB Jake Locker would like to see that his dedication to the program and hard work is rewarded with a first-round pick.
Will that be by Seattle though?
As it stands now, the Seahawks do not seem overly interested in Locker, but maybe that is just one giant smokescreen. The names that continue to be linked to Seattle are North Carolina defensive lineman Marvin Austin, Wisconsin defensive end J.J. Watt and Illinois defensive tackle Corey Liuget. It will be interesting to see who Seattle takes if those defensive players and Locker are still on the big board.
In the second round, they might look to add an offensive lineman, like Stephen Wisniewski (Penn State) or Orlando Franklin (Miami, Fla).
St. Louis Rams
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The St. Louis Rams failed to capture the NFC West crown last year, but the team experienced some nice growth behind rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. The Rams have not been to the playoffs since 2004, but if they can add a couple more key players, they will continue to build towards ending that drought.
With the 14th overall draft pick, the Rams must feel like they are in no man's land. They are too far back to get one of the elite players, and they are high enough that they will have some very nice options, but they may be at positions that they really weren't that interested in.
Ideally, the Rams want to find a dynamic wide receiver to give Bradford another top target. The best tight end in the draft, Kyle Rudolph of Notre Dame, appears to be too much of a reach with the 14th pick. So, the Rams have to hope that Julio Jones, the star receiver from Alabama, falls to them, or they have to figure out a way to trade up in front of the Redskins, who are rumored to be interested in Jones.
If Julio Jones is not there, the Rams seem to covet Illinois defensive tackle Corey Liuget, so that would be their pick. Another backup to Liuget would be Missouri defensive lineman Aldon Smith. The odds that one of those three players should be there is very high.
In the second round, they might look to upgrade their offensive line and hope that Villanova lineman Ben Ijalana is still there with the pick at 47.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Despite their offense (19th) and defense (17th) both finishing in the bottom half of the NFL for 2010, the Tampa Bay Bucs experienced a strong leap forward as an organization. They hope to continue to build on that momentum in 2011.
For the upcoming draft, the Bucs hold the 20th overall pick. The word that continues to circulate around the league is that they are more than happy to take Da'Quan Bowers, should he fall to them there.
If he is no longer available, the Bucs have been looking at linebacker candidates, so it would be ideal if Akeem Ayers (UCLA) and Justin Houston (Georgia) are both there. Houston, of course, has been notified that he failed the drug test at the scouting combine, so his stock will no doubt drop as a result.
The Bucs also have to find a replacement for Aqib Talib. They might be able to do that in the second round with their pick at 51 if Ras-I Dowling (Virginia) is still on the board, although they might be interested in Mason Foster (Washington linebacker) as well.
It does appear that the Bucs are looking to go pure defense in the first two rounds for now.
Tennessee Titans
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This appears to be a year for sweeping changes to be made with the Tennessee Titans. Long-time coach Jeff Fisher is gone. Quarterback Vince Young also appears to be gone. Even short-time wide receiver Randy Moss will be gone.
So what does the new regime do to restore order? The Titans finished 2010 with an offense that was ranked 27th and a defense that was ranked 26th. Ugh. That means there are plenty of directions they can go with their pick at No. 8 overall.
They could ideally hope that a quarterback like Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert would fall in their lap. That may not happen though, so the next tier would be Andy Dalton or Jake Locker. If the Titans aren't comfortable going there, they might want to pounce on Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who figures to still be there at No. 8.
With their second-round pick at 39, the Titans could always take their chances that Ryan Mallett (Arkansas), Christian Ponder (Florida State) or Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) could be there on the big board.
This year appears to be the start of a rebuilding effort in Tennessee, so the Titans are looking for some solid building blocks to add.
Washington Redskins
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The Washington Redskins finished the 2010 NFL season with the 18th-ranked offense and the 31st-ranked defense. They have ruined the one-year relationship they had with quarterback Donovan McNabb and have a mess on their hands trying to figure out what to do with Albert Haynesworth.
At least they have Mike Shanahan to figure out how to lead the troops.
The Redskins don't have many draft picks to work with because of all the trades that owner Daniel Snyder endorsed. They still might have to wheel and deal to try to get the guy they covet. There is considerable rumor mill gossip going around now that the Redskins will trade up to the second spot in the draft with Denver to make sure they secure Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert before the Buffalo Bills can draft him.
If that happens, the Redskins would probably have to surrender the rest of their top choices to Denver to pull that deal off. Looking at the NFL draft pick evaluation chart, it appears that even if the Redskins surrendered their top three picks at 10, 41 and 144, that would still not come close to the value of the Broncos pick at No. 2 overall, so we are probably looking at throwing in some key 2012 picks.
Just a thought, but why does Daniel Snyder even employ scouts? They work all year, and then he trades the picks away?
There is the possibility that the Redskins sit tight and hope that Jake Locker (Washington quarterback) or Julio Jones (Alabama wide receiver) are still on the board. That is a distinct possibility as well.
The Redskins situation will be one of the more interesting story lines as the draft unfolds.
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