2011 NFL Mock Draft: Definitive First-Round Projections and Predictions
One key rule that I’ve learned from being an avid NFL draft follower over the last few years is that you should take everything you hear in the days leading up to the draft with a big grain of salt.
This is prime rumor time right now, and there are so many different reports of this team liking that player and that team liking this player that it will have your head spinning if you try to keep up with it all.
The only thing we can be assured of is that this year’s mock drafts will probably rival this year’s March Madness brackets in terms of inaccuracy.
The first round is shaping up to be a wild and unpredictable event that should keep us all on our toes with each and every pick.
To give you a good indication of how crazy things could get, we’re only two days away from draft night, and no one even knows for sure who the first pick will be.
Carolina will start the fun on Thursday night, and then, the rest of the teams will take it from there.
Even though this year’s draft is a tough one to handicap, I figured I would get in the mock drafting spirit and give it my best shot.
Here's a look at how the first round could play out.
1. Carolina Panthers: QB Cam Newton
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There are three options for the Panthers here: Cam Newton, Marcell Dareus or trade down.
Current starter Jimmy Clausen doesn’t look to be the face of the future, and Newton is one of the most naturally gifted prospects we've seen in years,.
With that in mind, it would seem that QB would be the way to go.
If Carolina is willing to overlook a few over exaggerated red flags, they will most likely select Newton, an elite talent, who could turn out to be a franchise saver.
2. Denver Broncos: DT Marcell Dareus
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The Broncos are going to see their phones light up once the Panthers announce their pick.
At least two of the three consensus elite defensive prospects, OLB Von Miller, DT Marcell Dareus and CB Patrick Peterson, will still be on the board, and there will be plenty of teams inquiring about the possibility of moving up to secure one of them.
If Denver stays at No. 2, the team is likely to take either DT Marcell Dareus or OLB Von Miller.
Considering Dareus, the best defensive linemen in this draft, is better suited for Denvers’s new 4-3 defense, he's probably the best choice for John Elway and the Broncos.
3. Buffalo Bills: OLB Von Miller
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The Bills front seven is in dire need of an impact player such as Texas A&M OLB Von Miller.
Miller is the type of player who could come in and become an early defensive leader.
The 6'2'' 245 lb. speedster is a terror off the edge, and he would give the underrated Buffalo secondary some help with a much needed pass rush.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals: CB Patrick Peterson
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When you take into account that franchise stalwarts, QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco, likely won’t be back in Cincinnati in 2011, the two obvious options here would be QB Blaine Gabbert and WR A.J. Green.
Stop for a second though and realize what’s available to the Bengals here.
It’s LSU CB Patrick Peterson, a prospect who is likely sitting atop the majority of team’s draft boards.
If that type of player is up for grabs and available with the fourth pick, you would have to imagine he will get some strong consideration.
The logic says Georgia WR A.J. Green should be the pick here, but Peterson might be too good to pass up.
5. Arizona Cardinals: WR A.J. Green
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The worst case scenario for the Cardinals is if all three top defensive prospects, Dareus, Miller and Peterson, come off the board before the fifth pick.
If any are still available, Arizona would snatch them up in a second.
It sounds like the Cardinals would rather go the veteran quarterback rout instead of taking Missouri's Blaine Gabbert.
Georgia WR A.J. Green could be an option here if things don’t fall favorably for Arizona.
Quick question: Could you imagine how lethal the Cardinals would be if they had Kevin Kolb throwing to Larry Fitzerald and A.J. Green?
Every Cardinals fan reading this just got a tingle.
6. Cleveland Browns: DE Robert Quinn
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Cleveland proved back in the 2010 draft that you don’t have to overthink their pick. The Browns were lacking a top-notch cornerback, so they selected the best one available in Florida’s Joe Haden.
This year, the defensive line is in need of a major boost, so it would make sense if the Browns took one of the highly rated defensive linemen here.
North Carolina’s Robert Quinn has looked far from rusty in postseason workouts after sitting out this past season due to suspension.
Quinn would be a great fit in the new look 4-3 defense in Cleveland.
7. San Francisco 49ers: QB Blaine Gabbert
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If Blaine Gabbert falls this far, it would seem logical that San Francisco would be interested.
Patrick Peterson is the team's No. 1 target, but Gabbert would definitely be a nice consolation prize.
If the 49ers do actually select Gabbert, it will be interesting to see how he'll handle the adjustment to playing in a West Coast offense.
8. Tennessee Titans: WR Julio Jones
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Tennessee’s No. 1 WR Kenny Britt is testing the organization’s patience with his off-the-field troubles, and the front office may decide to give him some new competition in order to motivate him.
Julio Jones is the type of game-changer that adds a new dimension to an offense. Jones would be a major boost for a unit that ranked 25th in the league in passing last season.
If they don’t trade down, the Titans could also take a strong look at Washington QB Jake Locker or one of the top defensive line prospects.
9. Dallas Cowboys: DE J.J. Watt
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USC OT Tyron Smith seems to pretty much be the mock drafting militia's consensus choice for the Cowboys. But don’t forget that Jerry Jones always has a couple of tricks up his sleeve.
Dallas needs an upgrade for RT Marc Colombo, and they could reach for Tyron Smith or Anthony Castonzo to fill that need. But don’t be surprised if Jones goes in a different direction.
The Cowboys could also use quality help in the defensive front seven and prospects such as Wisconsin DE J.J. Watt and Missouri DE/OLB Aldon Smith could be on the team’s radar.
10. Washington Redskins: DE Cameron Jordan
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The Redskins will have to draft a QB at some point in the early rounds. But if Blaine Gabbert is off the board, Washington could decide to strengthen their defensive front and hold off on taking a signal-caller.
Cal’s Cameron Jordan is the type of strong, athletic prototypical 3-4 defensive end that would flourish in Washington’s defense.
11. Houston Texans: CB Jimmy Smith
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There’s speculation that the Houston Texans could try to trade up and land either OLB Von Miller or CB Patrick Peterson, however, they would have to put a lot of ammunition in a picks package to get up that high.
If Houston fails to work out a trade to move up, they could become prime candidates to trade back. But if the Texans stay at 11, they will probably look to add some type of key defensive piece.
Colorado’s Jimmy Smith might be an even more talented prospect than Peterson, and he represents a better value at this pick.
12. Minnesota Vikings: DT Nick Fairley
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The dominating DT duo of Kevin Williams and Pat Williams is no more, and it’s now time for the Vikings to get younger at the position.
Auburn’s Nick Fairley put together one of the most dominating college seasons we’ve seen from a DT since Warren Sapp, and he’s the type of havoc causer that could alter Minnesota’s defensive temperament.
13. Detroit Lions: DE Aldon Smith
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Most people are thinking CB with this pick, but I have feeling coach Jim Schwartz is intrigued by some of the dominating pass rushers available this year.
Sticking a player like Missouri DE Aldon Smith next to budding star DT Ndamukong Suh, last year’s No. 2 pick, would give the Detroit defense an intimidating identity for years to come.
14. St. Louis Rams: DE Ryan Kerrigan
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St. Louis is likely hoping that a scenario unfolds that allows the team to somehow get their hands on Alabama WR Julio Jones. But that’s unlikely.
If the Rams are unable to move up to land Jones, they will probably look to bolster their defensive line with the 14th pick.
Purdue DE Ryan Kerrigan would be the best option, but Illinois DT Corey Liuget could receive some consideration as well.
15. Miami Dolphins: QB Jake Locker
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QB Jake Locker is sure to be one of the main stories of draft night. Nearly every football fan is interested to see where the onetime No. 1 pick favorite will ultimately end up.
The Dolphins already have Chad Henne under center, but he didn’t inspire much optimism this past season.
Locker would be a terrific fit in Miami’s offense, and he could end up being just the medicine to cure the organization’s Dan Marino hangover.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Da’Quan Bowers
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We know Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers will slide on draft night. What we don’t know is how far.
Bowers, who was initially favored to be the No. 1 pick when he first declared, has had a rough offseason, and his stock certainly can’t be characterized as stable right now.
The Jaguars drafted defensive linemen with their top four picks in last year’s draft, but the team still needs an edge rusher on the outside.
17. New England Patriots: OT Tyron Smith
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As always seems to be the case, the Patriots once again have multiple first-round picks, which could allow them to move up and land a high-caliber player if that's what they desire.
New England will be looking to fix some holes in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and one lineman they could consider is USC OT Tyron Smith.
LT Matt Light might be on his way out the door, and the team could be in search of his replacement.
18. San Diego Chargers: DE Muhammad Wilkerson
18 of 34The Chargers lost coordinator Ron Rivera to Carolina, but the team will still employ a 3-4 philosophy again.
San Diego needs help at the defensive end position, and one prospect who really looks the part is Temple’s Muhammad Wilkerson. The end/tackle tweener had a breakout junior campaign and demonstrated he has the potential to be a dominating defender in the NFL.
19. New York Giants: DT Corey Liuget
19 of 34There’s no doubt that the Giants need to get younger all along the offensive line, but there’s a chance the team will wait until day two to fill those needs.
New York might have to find a replacement for Barry Coefield if he leaves, and they could look at one of the biggest risers of this class, DT Corey Liuget out of Illinois.
Liuget showed flashes of dominance during his junior season, and he could be an enticing option if he’s available at the No. 19 pick.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Mark Ingram
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Defensive End is a glaring hole for the Tampa Bay Bucs. But it’s also the deepest position in this year’s draft.
The Bucs want to surround rising star QB Josh Freeman with as many offensive weapons as possible, and they may pass on taking a DE at No. 20 in order to get Freeman some more help.
RB LeGarrette Blount was a rookie revelation last season, rushing for over 1,000 yards. But there’s no guarantee he can repeat that feat again.
Tampa Bay might consider adding Alabama RB Mark Ingram to solidify the backfield behind Freeman.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: DE Christian Ballard
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The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the hottest emerging teams in the NFL right now. But if they really want to take the step to that next level, the Chiefs are going to have to match their star power on offense with a little more star power on defense.
There’s quality pieces in place already, but there’s also work that needs to be done to the defensive front seven, especially if DE Shaun Smith leaves.
Iowa’s Christian Ballard would be a perfect fit in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 system, and he has a chance to develop into the type of player the Chiefs thought they were getting when they drafted Tyson Jackson a few years ago.
22. Indianapolis Colts: OG Mike Pouncey
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The Colts realized they made a major mistake taking DE Jerry Hughes over OT Rodger Saffold a year ago.
Peyton Manning faced an unusual amount of pressure this past season, as the Colts offensive line failed to give him proper protection all season long.
Mike Pouncey’s stock has been helped by his twin brother Maurkice’s early success as a rookie last year.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Prince Amukamara
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Don’t be shocked if you see Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara slide a bit on draft night.
Analysts and experts sometimes have a tendency to overvalue the stock of some prospects, and that could be the case with Amukamara.
The Eagles would love it if the talented 6’0’’ senior fell all the way down to them at No. 23.
24. New Orleans Saints: OT James Carpenter
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There’s going to be a surprise offensive tackle that joins the party in the late first round, and right now, I’m putting my money on Alabama’s James Carpenter.
The Saints have shown an interest in Carpenter, a prospect who has slowly but surely been climbing his way up draft boards these past few months.
The team has to prepare for potentially losing LT Jermon Bushrod, who will be an unrestricted free agent once the lockout ends.
25. Seattle Seahawks: OLB Akeem Ayers
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The Seahawks are in a bit of a tricky spot at No. 25.
The team could be looking to take their QB of the future, but there’s no guarantee that the player their targeting will be available.
What Seattle could use is a young, athletic pass rusher and Pete Carroll knows exactly what UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers brings to the table.
Carroll offered Ayers a scholarship back when he was coaching at USC.
26. Baltimore Ravens: OT Anthony Castonzo
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It will be interesting to see where Boston College OT Anthony Castonzo comes off the board.
Castonzo, who is widely believed to be one of the safest tackle prospects in this class, could go as high as No. 9 to the Dallas Cowboys.
One team that could be in the market for Castonzo’s services is the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens could need a replacement at right tackle if Jared Gaither doesn’t come back.
27. Atlanta Falcons: WR Jerrel Jernigan
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The Falcons need to find a complement to WR Roddy White, and they could end up reaching a bit in the first round to get their guy.
There are only two guaranteed first-round receivers this year, Georgia’a A.J. Green and Alabama’s Julio Jones, but one prospect that could sneak up the board is Troy’s Jerrel Jernigan.
Jernigan lacks the desired size you would want in a No. 2 target, but he more than makes up for it with his field-stretching speed.
28. New England Patriots: WR Jonathan Baldwin
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Let’s see, a big, highly-athletic WR who possesses remarkable natural ability but also has a few attitude questions.
Where have we heard that before?
The Patriots parted ways with talented yet distracting star WR Randy Moss last season, and now, the team will have to find Tom Brady a true No. 1 receiver.
Like Moss, Pittsburgh’s Jonathan Baldwin may come with some baggage, but his film doesn’t lie. Baldwin’s got the goods to be a top target in the NFL.
29. Chicago Bears: OT Gabe Carimi
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Bears offensive line coach Mike Tice was able to make magic out of mediocrity last season, as he somehow found a way to turn Chicago’s line into a decent unit.
There’s still help needed up front though, and the Bears could be looking to take an offensive linemen early on in this draft.
What Wisconsin’s Gabe Carmi lacks in athleticism, he makes up for with his toughness.
Carimi’s the type of gritty player that Tice would love.
30. New York Jets: OLB Brooks Reed
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Rex Ryan knows that the success of a defense is predicated on the type of pressure they’re able to come up with consistently, so you would have to believe that the Jets will be looking to take a pass rusher at this spot.
Justin Houston, Brooks Reed and Akeem Ayers could be the three biggest targets.
Arizona's Brooks Reed is a fast-rising prospect who topped off a strong senior season with solid workouts.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB/S Aaron Williams
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The Steelers could use some offensive line help after a grueling season claimed numerous casualties up front.
The team will also have to look for help on defense as well, most notably at the line of scrimmage and in the secondary.
Texas CB Aaron Williams is versatile enough to play either cornerback or safety in the NFL, and he would be a valued addition to a Pittsburgh secondary that started to show its age last season.
32. Green Bay Packers: DE Adrian Clayborn
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The Green Bay Packers may be picking last in the first round, but there’s a strong chance that a useful prospect will drop to them at No. 32.
Iowa DE Adrian Clayborn would be a great value pick if he fell that far, and he would help strengthen a defensive line that was plagued by injuries in 2010.
The 6’2’’ 280 lb. Clayborn didn’t have the senior season he was hoping for, but he still showed that he has the talent to be a difference maker in the NFL.
Solving the QB Puzzle
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Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick are four of the most intriguing names to keep an eye on draft night.
Depending on how many teams decide to trade back into the first round, the supposed second-tier QB prospects could have a major impact on how the back end of Round 1 shakes out.
Washington’s Jake Locker will probably be the third QB off the board, but after him, nobody is quite sure how the rest will fall.
All four prospects have obvious upside, but they also have issues of concern.
It should be interesting to see how picks 20-32 play out.
Some Other Prospects Who Could Sneak in
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RB Mikel Leshoure, Illinois
WR Titus Young, Boise State
TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame
OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
OT Nate Solder, Colorado
OG Danny Watkins, Baylor
DT Phil Taylor, Baylor
DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State
OLB Justin Houston, Georgia
CB Brandon Harris, Miami
CB Ras-I Dowling, Virginia
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