2011 NFL Draft: 10 Last-Minute Thoughts on the New England Patriots
With so much information available, so many mock drafts floating around the internet, and so many draft picks at the New England Patriots disposal, it's easy to get cross-eyed just trying to think about who the team might pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
The Patriots are always one of the harder teams to predict come draft time. Of course, it doesn't help that the NFL is currently in a state of labor limbo. I'll try and help you uncross your eyes by boiling it all down to just 10 things to think about over the next 48 hours leading up to the NFL draft.
Follow Erik Frenz on Twitter @erikfrenz.
Trading
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In case there was ever any doubt, Bill Belichick absolutely loves trading. He does it just about every single year (except in 2004).
We've seen a lot of mock drafts over the past few weeks, and though most of them are done under the "no-trade policy," you can toss that policy right out the window the minute the draft starts. With six picks in the first three rounds, that phone is going to be ringing off the hook.
There are a ton of opportunities that can be created with a well-timed trade. The Patriots could end up with even more than the current nine picks they hold in this year's draft.
But there's another way to do it...
Acquiring Picks for Next Year
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Even smarter than acquiring more picks for this year would be to trade some of this year's picks for picks in higher rounds for 2012.
The Patriots only have 5 picks in 2012 at this point. Adding to that number should, and probably will be a priority.
One of the many ways in which Bill Belichick stays ahead of the curve is by having a surplus of draft picks. Had the Patriots not been caught videotaping opponent's sidelines, they would have had two first-round picks twice in the past five years. Don't think Belichick's forgotten about that, either.
Change in Philosophy?
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In the past, the New England Patriots have shied away from drafting hybrid defensive end-outside linebacker prospects that didn't project as perfect fits in their system. This philosophy has caused the Patriots to miss out on at least one elite pass rushing prospect, Clay Matthews.
There's a certain level of risk involved in making such a pick on a player whose projection is somewhat ambiguous. Why would the Patriots go after a player who doesn't fit their system? Still, the Patriots lack an elite pass rusher on their roster. Having played out of their sub package 57 percent of the time as opposed to just 40 percent of downs in the base 3-4, the case could be made almost stronger than ever to abort the earlier line of thinking.
An interesting point to observe in that regard is that the Patriots run a 3-4 front, which uses three down linemen. By being in their sub package, they are effectively running a four-man front. Therefore, some of those purebred pass rushers may be a better fit than previously thought.
Bottom line: The Patriots main goal in this draft should be one thing...
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Improve the Pass Rush
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There's just no way the New England Patriots could possibly come out of this draft without doing something to bolster their pass rush. This year has a solid crop of pass rushers, and even if they don't all project as solid 3-4 outside linebackers, they have great talents that can be maximized.
Those players will be especially useful if the Patriots are in the sub package as much next year as they were in 2010. As mentioned earlier, they played more often in a sub package (57 percent) than in their base 3-4 (40 percent).
They have accumulated an underwhelming 67 sacks in the past two years combined, 36 in 2010 and 31 in 2009. To put that in perspective, the league average for those two years was a combined 69.7. The Patriots also allowed a league-worst third-down conversion rate of 47 percent. The best way to improve that third down defense is with a talented pass rusher.
If they don't improve their pass rush, there could be hell to pay in Foxboro. Which reminds me...
Front Seven Evaluations Are Key
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Bill Belichick was on Sirius NFL Radio about a week ago, and alluded to the fact that this draft could be won or lost by how teams evaluate the prospects in the front seven. "I’m sure there’s going to be a lot of those players taken high...The teams that are able to come out with the impact players in that group relative to the teams that take players and they aren’t able to contribute for them has a lot to do with who’s able to gain the most out of this draft so that will be an interesting part of it."
In a separate interview with Tom E. Curran of Comcast SportsNet, Belichick called this year's crop of defensive linemen one of the best in any draft ever. "There is a lot of depth at the top of the draft," said Belichick. "Some good defensive front seven players [and] on the defensive front, probably more [depth] than in any draft I can remember."
That is the closest you will ever get to hearing Bill Belichick tip his hand on what he plans on doing draft day. And when you read closely, you'll notice that he says a lot without saying much at all.
We can be fairly certain he will take someone in the front seven, be it a defensive end, an outside linebacker, or some "hybrid" combination of the two. Where he takes that player, and what he expects them to do, are things we have absolutely no insight on.
This Year Is Different Than Any Other
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With the uncertainty of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, this year's draft is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in history. Teams will be drafting more for need than ever before.
The Patriots have never been one of those teams in the past, and they probably won't turn into one of those teams now. The league will return to normal eventually, and it just wouldn't make sense for the Patriots to follow the trends of teams that are simply reacting to the uncertain labor situation.
Offensive Depth Is Needed
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The New England Patriots scored 518 points on their way to ranking as the league's No. 1 scoring offense in 2010. Those numbers would seem to indicate that the offense is set.
If you ask anyone who watched the Jets game, though, they'd tell you a very dissimilar story. There were some weaknesses exposed in that game, but I think too much is made of the idea that the "blueprint" for beating the Patriots has been laid out.
One thing that's always overlooked in making that statement is this: You can have the blueprint to build the Taj Mahal, but it's worthless unless you have the right parts. Having the appropriate personnel is key to running a "blueprint," and most teams don't have the level of talent or the right personnel to effectively shut down the Patriots offense.
So the Patriots don't need to drastically overhaul their offense. With some aging prospects at wide receiver and on the offensive line, and with only two really productive running backs, the Patriots could stand to add depth at those positions. Adding dynamic game changers, though, shouldn't be too high on Belichick's draft day to-do list.
Weak Positions in Draft Are Strong Positions on Patriots Roster
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The three weakest positions in this year's draft, especially at the top, are safety, inside linebacker, and tight end. That also happens to be three positions the Patriots have drafted particularly well over the past few years.
Makes the Patriots look awful smart, doesn't it?
It makes you wonder whether teams look ahead to future drafts in determining who they should draft this year. Of course, they don't know about the juniors that will declare.
Trench in Focus
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One of the most overused clichés in sports could be that football teams are built in the trenches. Overused doesn't mean not true, though.
This year especially, the Patriots will look to add some talent in the trenches.
John Madden's "Most Valuable Protectors" of last year are surrounded by a fog of uncertainty headed into 2011. Steve Neal has retired. Matt Light could be a free agent. Logan Mankins is unhappy. Dan Koppen enters the final year of his contract. Sebastian Vollmer is the only lock beyond 2011 on the offensive line.
Names like Gerard Warren, Brandon Deaderick, Ron Brace, Mike Wright and Kyle Love may not light up the stat sheet, but they make for some solid depth along the defensive line. Although they are solid depth guys, none of them are three-down starters in the Patriots defense. There are also questions about how rusty and/or motivated Ty Warren will be after a year off with a hip injury.
The Patriots need to come out of this draft with at least one or two players on each line, both defense and offense.
In Belichick We Trust
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A good friend of mine, Mike Dussault of Pats Propaganda, told me these great words in regards to the Patriots draft: "When in doubt, don't doubt."
Patriots fans have visions of sack masters dancing through their heads. With so many great prospects to choose from at those defensive end and outside linebacker spots, conventional wisdom would say that the Patriots will head that direction.
When it comes to the draft, though, the Patriots aren't conventional.
Mock drafts have made the "sexy" picks for the Patriots, targeting guys like Brooks Reed and Robert Quinn.
Again, when it comes to the draft, the Patriots don't do "sexy". They just do sound.
At Mike Reiss' draft talk at Patriots Place on Thursday, April 21, he mentioned four points that are listed on the wall as the players leave the field at Gillette Stadium. The first on the list: "Don't believe the hype." Fans should apply that line of thinking to the NFL draft.
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
