Mitch's College Football Picks 2008 Week Seven: Part Four

Normally I reserve today for the games I'm not touching, but I just felt like making more picks.

In case you haven't noticed, it's that time in the season when I have enough current data to really crunch the numbers and make my picks as opposed to relying on trends and limited data.

I think we saw this really work to our advantage in both the Clemson-Wake Forest game and the Troy-FAU game, where many of the cappers and bettors were on the other side, especially with all of that late action on Clemson last night.

In less than a few hours, Clemson went from a 2 1/2-point underdog to a two-point favorite, but we weren't even close to being sucked in to that disaster. In any event, I have said all along that my second half of the season is always my strongest half, and the current data is the main reason why. So far, so good.

If you haven't seen me post a pick and it isn't in my newsletter late tonight, I'm either not touching it or it flew past my radar, so feel free to ask in the meantime. The forum is a great spot for this, and with all of the people on this site now and really the quality of handicappers, we could probably have a great forum in no time.

In the FREE newsletter this week, I'll be adding some actual site news and start to talk about some contests that will be happening—with prizes. I have sponsors (who I haven't given a lot of love to) so we can either play for cool stuff or my favorite prize—cash. Maybe we'll do both.

You will need to be a subscriber to be eligible, and since it's free and quick (you don't see any complaints in the comments or forum) there's really no reason not to. It will be free for subscribers to enter any contest; it should be a lot of fun.

Back to this week, I'm at 2-1 so far after the blowing of the spread by UAB, which just got plain tuckered out in the track meet at Houston. For those who watched my video yesterday, it was almost like I scripted the Wake-Clemson game myself, as it was exactly how we called it but included some squandered chances by Wake, or else it would have been an even easier win for us.

Let's get on to what the rest of the weekend has in store.

Memphis +6 1/2 Vs. Louisville (10/10/08, 8 EST) 3 out of 10

Here's another one of those games I'm only picking because it's the only game in town on Friday night. This is where our new rating system comes into play and, while the ratings won't make a difference in the win loss column, we'll be able to look at W/L percentages within each rating.

Back to the game: This one looks pretty even, and when it's even we go with the team getting the points, especially if it's a night game. Memphis comes in having won three in a row straight up, and Louisville comes in after a bye week following a home loss to Connecticut. Louisville has been a model of inconsistency the past few years.

The trends in this game all favor a Memphis cover, as the Tigers are 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings, the underdog is 8-1 in the last nine meetings, and the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings.

While Louisville is actually stronger running the football, quarterback Hunter Cantwell was injured last game and, while he's scheduled to start, there are still some reported issues. This one looks like it should be a pick, so we'll gladly take the points with Memphis.

See the rest of this article and all of Mitch's College Football Picks at The College Football Place.