College Football: Week Seven Picks ATS

By Nostradamus

Last week was a bit of scrum. Against the numbers, I came out ahead at 9-7-1, but I missed badly on some contests.

For the year, that makes my ATS number 40-26-3—still a pretty decent 60.6 percent clip.

But now, it is midseason, and if you aren't ahead now, you might as well pack it in for the year. These are the weeks that separate the Pros from Joe Lunchpail. 

These are the weeks where Vegas makes its real coin in the Sports Books.

It is also the season of the underdogs, especially in rivalry games when the general public thinks the "dog" has no chance.  I'll keep to the task and only put out opinions on the toughest of games.

So what do we have in store for Week Seven?

Thursday

Clemson @ Wake Forest (-2 1/2)

Another great Thursday night matchup: What many consider the two best teams in the ACC clash heads in Winston-Salem, NC. This game should go a long way in determining the Atlantic Division representative in the ACC Championship game. Both teams are off the traditional BYE week before a Thursday night clash, so they should be focused.

Clemson has rallied, somewhat, from their early season meltdown against Alabama. Right now, that loss doesn't look quite as bad, does it? They are also coming off an upset loss at the hands of Maryland.

Wake is trying to recover from a disappointing loss to Navy at home.  When you consider how much Wake struggled against Navy's ground game, you immediately believe that...

Clemson should be able to take advantage.  But...Navy was a trap game after a big win over Florida State and conference rival Clemson on the slate next.

In a game as tightly contested as this one looks to be, you have to look at special teams and defensive play to rule the roost.

Veteran place-kicker Sam Swank is a bit banged up and questionable for the Deacons.  It's a tough play, and I'm going against what I feel is the better coach at home, but I'll take the road dogs and look for the Thursday night underdog streak to remain alive.

Clemson 23, Wake Forest 16

Saturday

Minnesota @ Illinois (-12 1/2)

The Gophers are riding high at 5-1 with their only defeat at the hands of Ohio State.  Illinois has run a rugged schedule with losses to Missouri and Penn State. Thus this game has some serious bowl game considerations for both teams.

Illinois needs a win.  Minnesota is looking to continue their rise from the ranks and prove that they belong. One could easily look at Illinois' run to the Rose Bowl last year as being a fluke as well.  With Rashard Mendenhall gone, they aren't near the team they were last year.

I called for the rise of Minnesota before the season started and the fall of Illinois back to obscurity.  I can't say I disagree thus far.  I'll call for the outright upset in this one and take the very generous money line.  One year does not a team make.

Minnesota 34, Illinois 27

Michigan State @ Northwestern (+1 1/2)

In case you haven't noticed, Northwestern is undefeated, and Michigan State is 5-1.  Sparty has played a very much tougher schedule than Northwestern to date, but the Wildcats have that "darling" status hanging around them right now.

Will they achieve the greatness of their underdog coach's history at the same school? Hard to believe even Hollywood could dream that one up.

I won't doubt the Wildcats much, but I just believe that the Spartans defense and rushing attack from Javon Ringer will be too much.  Take Sparty to cover.

Michigan State 31, Northwestern 24

South Carolina @ Kentucky (+1)

Kentucky is fresh off of a hard-fought loss to Alabama on the road.  South Carolina just beat Gator hater Ole Miss.  These are two solid defenses without any indication that they have any offense.

Last week, I was absolutely atrocious on my Over/Under plays, so you might want to skip on to the next one. I should stay away, but I'm a glutton for punishment. With these two teams I have to take the right play and go with the UNDER of 38 1/2.  I'll side with Succop 5-4 over Seiber...I mean...

South Carolina 15, Kentucky 12

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State (-2 1/2)

I have to play it. It is a must. Vandy is 5-0 ATS this year, and MSU can't beat anybody.  MSU will have 400 yards of offense compared to 185 from Vandy but somehow still lose.  Chalk it up, as Vandy keeps the dream season alive...

Vanderbilt 17, MSU 13

How about the Oklahoma-Texas game and others?

Find them all here...