Fantasy Football: Week Six Preview, Part One

So it's time to make sure we review the games being played and who needs to be in the lineup. We have some stacked early games, with eight games kicking off at 1 PM. All information here is accurate as of the time we write the article. And remember, always start your studs. You drafted them for a reason. 

Let's get to it.

Baltimore at Indianapolis

Who to Start: Baltimore Defense, Anthony Gonzalez, Le'Ron McClain, Willis McGahee

Who to Sit: Marvin Harrison, Joe Flacco, Baltimore Receivers

What to Expect: As we saw against Jacksonville, Indy just cannot stop the run. That's going to be good news for anyone that owns McClain and McGahee. Both should see substantial work and be good for solid efforts on all fronts.

For McGahee, look to see 80 yards and a score, while McClain should add two touchdowns and 75 yards. These are conservative numbers as far as yards go, considering that Taylor and Jones-Drew combined for well over 200 yards against this exact same defense when they had Bob Sanders.

For Joe Flacco, the workload won't be easy. Indy has a decent pass rush and plays the intermediate routes very well. He likely won't have many lanes to throw but also won't be asked to do too much in that regard.

Not when they'll get the job done on the ground. His defense could also set them up for a couple cherry-picking touchdowns. Look for Flacco to throw for one through the air and around 170 yards. Derrick Mason gets the touchdown and most of the yards.

On the Indy side, Peyton Manning has "struggled." He normally torches the Texans but needed some last-minute magic to get the job done. Against a subpar defense, he didn't have a great day.

The Ravens are far from the Texans. He's overly reliant on Dallas Clark and has a line in shambles still. Expecting more than 225 and two touchdowns to go with two picks wouldn't be kosher. Reggie Wayne has the best day, and we'll look for 90 yards and a score from him. I feel Gonzalez gets the other this time around, to go with 60 yards.

Joseph Addai could be in for a long day at the office. The Ravens are the toughest in football against the run. Don't look for him to find the end zone and more than 70 yards is a stretch. In other words, I believe in the Ravens.

Sleeper Pickup: McClain. I can only say it so many times, but he's just 35 percent owned and is scoring on a weekly basis. Grab him while you can, this game is going to increase his value dramatically.

Detroit at Minnesota

Who to Start: Chester Taylor, Bernard Berrian, Gus Frerotte, Detroit Receivers
 
Who to Sit: Jon Kitna, Kevin Smith, Rudi Johnson
 
What to Expect: So, Detroit gave up over 200 yards to Michael Turner. Frank Gore ran for 130 yards.

I'd expect that Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor are in for some fun. Peterson shouldn't have any problems cracking 140 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor likely has 70 yards of his own to go with a score. It's going to be a lot of time spent running the football, simply because the Lions are so bad at defending it.

Usually, that would mean bad things for the passing game, but even Matt Ryan had a good game against the Lions. Frerotte should throw for 200 yards and two touchdowns, which will be more than adequate in deeper leagues to keep him active.

The question in Detroit is why would I recommend starting the Detroit receivers, but not their quarterback. Jon Kitna is having problems with his back, and it's enough to scare me away from using him. 

That said, Dan Orlovski or Drew Stanton will still be viable options. Minnesota's pass defense is abysmal, and that's where Detroit will have to live to stay in the game. Since they'll be behind regardless, this isn't a stretch.

Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson should each be good for a touchdown and over 80 yards. Shaun McDonald likely won't score, but he should bring in 60 yards as well.

Minnesota is VERY tough against the run. Avoid Johnson and Smith at all costs. They've been able to keep much better running backs in check.
 
Sleeper Pickup: In really deep leagues, you might be able to get away with calling Shaun McDonald that, especially if you're in need of a receiver for a bye week. You can do better, but you can do worse.

Oakland at New Orleans

Who to Start: Devery Henderson, Deuce McAllister, Sebastian Janikowski
 
Who to Sit: Michael Bush, Justin Fargas, JaMarcus Russell
 
What to Expect: I just don't believe that New Orleans is a 2-3 team. They should have been able to beat Minnesota, and the Oakland defense will be a much easier task.

As much as I make fun of the Minnesota pass defense, it's not like the Raiders should be patting themselves on the back. Drew Brees is going to go OFF for a big day. If he doesn't at least meet what he did last week, that will be a surprise. Look for over 300 yards and three touchdowns to go with a couple picks.

Devery Henderson should have a big day, look for over 100 yards and a touchdown. Lance Moore and David Patten should both get in on the action as well.

Bush and McAllister will both be fine plays, especially if you're using McAllister out of the flex spot and Bush from no more than an RB2. Look for both to find the end zone, with McAllister doing the damage on the ground for 65 yards. Bush will have at least four receptions, so PPR leagues make him even more valuable.

As far as Oakland is concerned, this is going to be a struggle. Darren McFadden isn't 100 percent, and now both Fargas and Bush will be around to split carries. That makes it very hard to consider any truly valuable from a fantasy stand point. Avoid all three if you can.

Russell has yet to prove that he can really throw the football, and that makes using him or any Oakland receiver a risky proposition. Zach Miller should be fine as a fill-in tight end in deeper leagues, especially for those that have Bo Scaife or Tony Gonzalez on bye this week. Ashley Lelie is the remaining target, but don't expect more than 60 yards through the air for him.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Lance Moore. We recommended him last week as a waiver-wire pickup, and he promptly rewarded us with close to a disappearing act against Minnesota. Look for him to rebound here with 70 yards and a touchdown.

Cincinnati at New York Jets

Who to Start: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Johnson, Thomas Jones
 
Who to Sit: Cedric Benson, Chris Perry, Chansi Stuckey, Carson Palmer
 
What to Expect: The Jets give up 265 yards a game through the air, good for 31st in the NFL. They only give up 75 yards a game on the ground, though. The opposite is true for the Bengals, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass, but 29th against the rush.

Avoid the Cincinnati running back situation. Already it's been hard to predict, and the yards won't come easy against this defense. My bet is that both backs are kept out of the end zone, but combine for around 130 yards. Not exactly stellar numbers. Thomas Jones, though, should crack 100 yards and a score for himself.

In addition to being sixth against the pass, the Bengals have given up just over a touchdown per game (six in five games). Brett Favre likely breaks 200 yards and two touchdowns, but it won't be more than that. He'll also make a couple throws that will make you wonder what happened, so add a pick in there as well.

Carson Palmer looked much better last week, and his elbow has held up in practice to this point. Palmer should be able to hit 250 yards and two touchdowns as well.

Update: Carson Palmer has been ruled out of Sunday's game. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start in his place. It becomes necessary to downgrade every aspect to the Cincinnati passing game as a result.

Who will catch all of these? Coles and Favre have been on the same page in recent weeks, getting better each time. Coles should grab both touchdown passes from Favre and be good for 85 yards. Cotchery is still going to be heavily involved and likely makes it a 100-yard day.

I don't see Stuckey involved much at all. Houshmandzadeh will draw No. 1 coverage, but he's likely still find the end zone and 90 yards. Look for Chad Johnson to grab the other and 85 yards as well.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Chris Henry. He may or may not play this week, depending on whom you read. If he's available, though, pick him up. He'll be valuable later on as well.

Chicago at Atlanta

Who to Start: Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Kyle Orton, Greg Olsen
 
Who to Sit: Jerious Norwood, Matt Ryan, Brandon Lloyd
 
What to Expect: Atlanta is giving up about two passing touchdowns a game, and over 220 yards as well, through the air. The Bears give up yards, but not the touchdowns, classic bend-but-don't-break philosophy here. Chicago is No. 4 in the NFL against the run, making this a tough game for the Atlanta offense.

You'll likely have to use Michael Turner, and he should still be effective. The key is knowing what to expect. Look for him to have around 80 yards and a score. That would beat the average, certainly, but not blow anyone away. Jerious Norwood will have a rough go of it, especially if they Falcons can't get Turner going.

Matt Ryan may throw for a touchdown to Roddy White, but his yardage just isn't going to be there. He'll top out around 175, making White the only decent play of anyone catching passes for Atlanta.

Kyle Orton had himself a good day last week and that should continue in this matchup. Look for Orton to break 240 yards and two touchdowns. Greg Olsen should be looked at as a decent option here, and he'll snag one of those passes. I'm concerned with Brandon Lloyd, enough that even if he were to be healthy, I'd keep him reserved if possible.

Atlanta, despite the record, allows teams to move the football. Matt Forte should find enough daylight to break 100 yards and a touchdown as well. It's a good matchup for him.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Greg Olsen. Given that there are some good tight ends on bye this week, Olsen should be thought of as a decent play in this circumstance.

Carolina at Tampa

Who to Start: DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Earnest Graham, Warrick Dunn
 
Who to Sit: Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Jeff Garcia
 
What to Expect: The Panthers had a great time against the Chiefs last week, but Tampa proved they can hang with the best of them, giving Denver a run for their money.

Where the Chiefs are almost dead last against the run, the Bucs give up just under 100 yards per game on the ground. The odds are good that Williams and Stewart will split those. Williams will be given the first crack, based on his week last week, but look for Stewart to steal the one touchdown scored on the ground. Neither is more than a flex play because of this split.

The same is true in Tampa, where Graham and Dunn are becoming a dual-back situation as well. I think Carolina's defense is softer, and their stats are boosted by the solid performance last week. The Tampa backs should combine for 130 yards, with Graham getting the touchdown on the ground. Again, they have to remain flex options.

I don't like Delhomme or Garcia throwing the football this week. You likely have to start Steve Smith in Carolina, and he should still grab a touchdown pass. Just don't look for much more than that from the Panthers offense.

Garcia has a better arm than Griese, which likely mitigates the tight end pass that Griese had developed. I just don't see this being a huge game for him coming back. 
 
Sleeper Pickup: I'd avoid anyone in this game that you don't absolutely have to play.

St. Louis at Washington

Who to Start: All your Redskins
 
Who to Sit: All your Rams
 
What to Expect: This one is almost too much of a gimmie, and that makes me nervous from a gambling perspective. From a fantasy perspective though, this should be a field day for the Redskins. It has to be. There is no other way around it.

The Rams give up 166 yards per game on the ground, so make sure Clinton Portis is in your lineups. Look for 150 yards and two touchdowns from him.

The Redskins, though, give up under 90, which could mean tough running for Steven Jackson. You have to start him, but just don't be surprised when he ends up with 75 yards and a score. He'll see a lot of eight-man fronts, especially with only one truly threatening Rams receiver in the passing game.

Jason Campbell shouldn't be held under 275 yards with three touchdowns. The Rams aren't good against the pass either, having given up nearly 250 yards per game there. Santana Moss should have a big day. Look for 120 yards and a touchdown coming from him. Chris Cooley and Antwaan Randle El should each be good for a score as well.

Just because Marc Bulger is under center doesn't mean the Rams are going to be better. They still have just one truly healthy receiver in Holt, and Dane Looker will be out of the lineup. Holt should be good for Bulger's only touchdown pass of the day, but that's probably all you can hope for from this matchup.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Randle El. He's available in many formats

Miami at Houston

Who to Start: Ricky Williams, Kevin Walter, Matt Schaub
 
Who to Sit: Sage Rosenfels, Owen Daniels, Ahman Green

What to Expect: I think you should expect to see a lot more of the Wildcat formation. The Dolphins continue to say that they haven't used everything that they have put into the package, and to me that means they'll pull a bit out of the hat every week. 

Yes, Ronnie Brown will be the main beneficiary, and look for him to top 100 yards with a couple scores. I think that the one thing they do this week is help Williams find the end zone. 60 yards and a touchdown for him as well.

Steve Slaton needs to be started in every format. Miami is tough against the run, but Slaton has surprised many people. He should still crack 80 yards and find his way into the end zone for a score.

Miami is weak in the secondary, but San Diego and New England haven't been able to take advantage of that fact. Maybe they're better than we think? I think it's two fold. They're better, but they haven't been exposed.

Matt Schaub shouldn't exactly be fighting for his job here anymore after last week and will play looser. I say he's good for 230 and two scores, one to Johnson and one to Walter. Miami doesn't give up points to tight ends, so if you can avoid Owen Daniels, that would be the wise play.

Chad Pennington is being asked to simply manage the game. He's done that very well to this point. Houston is still looking for secondary help, bringing in corners every week for tryouts. He won't set the world on fire, but he could very well throw for 210 yards and a touchdown this week. Look for Greg Camarillo to catch that and go for 85 yards. Anthony Fasano should be solid for another 60.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Camarillo. He's a Wes Welker-type receiver and has become Pennington's primary target if only because he's very sure-handed.

Back tomorrow to preview the late games!