College Football Picks 2008: Week Seven, Part Three—Mitch’s Predictions

I've decided to change my strength of play indicator as I think it will give a better look as to how I feel about a particular pick.

While in the end all we look at are wins and losses, there are certain games I feel better about than others. While I tried to use a 1-3 unit system for the first time this year, it hasn't worked out as I had planned, as it was just confusing to the majority of my readers.

While I could say next year we'll try something different, I think it makes more sense to change up right now.

What led me to change now was that something I felt as strongly about as the Troy play on Tuesday night still only counts as one in the win/loss column, the same as a game I just pick because it's the only game on TV on a particular night.

At least we can look at exactly how strong or weak we felt the play was. I think this gives us more flexibility while at the same time giving everyone a closer idea as to how I feel about the overall pick. We'll try it out and see how it goes.

Since we are changing this midstream this week, I'll re-post a recap in the newsletter this and every week of the rankings of the picks, and I'll also post if it was a change in rank in the same game. While this may sound confusing, it isn't—it's as simple as listing the games, winners, and values and an asterisk (*) if there has been a change.

If you haven't signed up for the Newsletter, it's quick, easy, and free.

Now that I've thoroughly confused all of my loyal readers and any newcomers, I'll get back to doing what I do: picking games and talking college football.

Wake Forest -2 1/2 Vs. Clemson (Thursday, Oct. 9, 7:30 EST): 5 out of 10

I have been avoiding picking or even looking at this game because I know Clemson has a great offensive backfield, and I know Wake lost to Navy, who is a running team. Looking at the team stats for both of these teams, Clemson has a decided edge there as well. In the Coaching department, it's all Wake.

While all of these statements are true, it leaves out some major points that have led me to side with Wake. The Demon Deacons turned the ball over six times against Navy, which would make it tough to beat anyone.

When looking at the statistical disparity, it has to be pointed out the Clemson has played two teams of the former I-AA division of college football, while Wake has only played Division I teams.

Clemson hasn't covered all season, and Wake is 2-2 against the number. To make matters worse, Clemson has some of the worst trends of any team in the nation, while Wake has some very decent trends to work with.

The most important and most relevant trends are those which relate directly to this series, and those are that the home team is 5-1-2 against the spread in the eight meetings of these two teams and Wake is 4-1 against the spread in the series in the last five.

I think Clemson has a good chance if Wake turns the ball over six times again this week. I just think the chance of that happening is slim.

For the rest of Part Three of Mitch's picks, visit The College Football Place.