NFL Draft 2011: Which 10 Teams Would Blaine Gabbert Start for from Day One?
Missouri's Blaine Gabbert has been called the most NFL-ready QB in the 2011 NFL Draft class. Time will tell if this is a reflection of Gabbert's abilities, or a referendum on the quality of this year's QB class.
Unless Gabbert is able to turn his production around from his junior year, it could be a long season for him and his new team if he is called into starting duty.
After posting respectable numbers as a sophomore, he regressed in almost every meaningful category as a junior. His stats were well of the pace of the numbers Chase Daniel posted under the same offense.
There are no fewer than 12 teams that are in need of QB help heading into the 2011 season. Some will sign one of the few available free agents, while others are working on trades.
Of these teams, five are in a position to draft Gabbert to run the offense in 2011, while he might be able to win a starting job on 10 squads based on their current rosters.
Where Gabbert Wouldn't Start
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Buffalo Bills—There are rumblings that the Bills might also look to take a QB in 2011. Even if they take Gabbert, he'd have a difficult time taking the reigns from Ryan Fitzpatrick. The six-year veteran played well last year despite a lack of talent on their offense. It is unlikely that a rookie would replace his 3,000 yards or 25 TDs.
Jacksonville Jaguars—David Garrard is the only QB under contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Given that coach Jack Del Rio doesn't feel he is an elite NFL QB, speculation is that the Jaguars will look to draft a player to be a backup and eventually take over as QB.
Gabbert would have very little chance to win an open competition with the nine-year veteran but could possibly see time as an injury replacement. Garrard has been fairly durable in his career, though having started 44 straight games for the Jaguars prior to missing time at the end of last season with a broken finger that required surgery.
Look for Jacksonville to take a mid-round prospect to come in as a clear backup QB that will learn the system.
10. Denver Broncos
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It is hard for players to feel comfortable with their jobs given what is happening in Denver. John Elway and John Fox are taking over the leadership of the team and there are rumblings concerning the futures of Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton.
Denver is in position to grab one of the top QBs in the draft this season and Gabbert could be their guy. This would likely signal the end of Tebow's time in Denver, but Orton might be retained to provide a little experience at the position.
If Gabbert showed enough maturity, it is possible that Fox would have him starting out of the gate.
9. Seattle Seahawks
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The simple fact is Seattle doesn't have the draft capital to make a play for Gabbert. Even if they did, why make the move in 2011? The expectation is they would take a chance and move up to grab Pete Carroll's old signal caller at USC, Matt Barkley, or attempt to get into position to draft Andrew Luck.
If Seattle did snag Gabbert, he might be stuck behind Matt Hasselbeck as re-signing the former Pro Bowl QB would become a priority for Seattle so they would have a mentor for Gabbert. In the absence of Hasselbeck, there would be competition with Charlie Whitehurst, and it would take a lot for Gabbert to win that battle.
Still, Gabbert's skill set would be well suited for a dink and dunk west coast offense. He has a good release and gets the ball to short range targets quickly.
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8. Minnesota Vikings
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The Vikings are in a position to move up to grab Gabbert, but this isn't a likely choice for them. The Vikings still see themselves as a contender and handing the ball to a rookie would be paramount to throwing in the towel on getting back to the playoffs in 2011.
Expect Minnesota to take a QB in the first two rounds, while working on a trade or signing a free agent QB to lead the team for the next year or two.
7. Carolina Panthers
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Gabbert may be tempting, but the Panthers need to pass on the spread QB. They already have a young project at the position and it is too early to give up on Jimmy Clausen. In addition, the Panthers are still a few years away from being able to compete. They will likely end up in position to draft a QB in 2012.
By giving Clausen a sophomore season to test his arm, the Panthers will have a better idea if they take a new franchise QB next year or stockpile the draft picks that would be available by trading out of a high spot.
But if Carolina wants to win four games instead of two in 2011, Gabbert might help them get there. He would give Clausen a good battle for the starting job, but with the top pick in the draft, you'd anticipate someone that would dominate the competition similar to what Bradford did in St. Louis last season.
6. Arizona Cardinals
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While certainly in position to draft Gabbert, he just isn't a good fit for Arizona.
Many NFL experts disagree, as Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr. and Rob Rang all claim he would be a logical choice as the next Cardinal QB. However, they also see him as the most NFL-ready QB in this draft and as close to a can't-miss talent as there is this year.
I don't share their optimism. Gabbert was proficient in a short passing game in a spread offense, hitting short passes with regularity. However, he struggled when throwing more than 10 yards down the field and he used his TE as a crutch.
Neither of these fit well with what will be expected of him in an Arizona offense. The passing game starts and ends with getting the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, and Gabbert was hesitant to throw the ball up the field when he could throw to a target closer to the line of scrimmage. This is a big part of why Matt Leinart didn't make the opening day roster in 2010; don't expect the Cardinals to be too excited about a QB that thrives on short yardage throws.
Still, in a competition with John Skelton and Max Hall, it isn't hard to fathom that Gabbert could win the position battle. He has the work ethic and the mental approach to start for a team without a solid option.
5. Miami Dolphins
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The biggest stumbling block to Gabbert being the starter in Miami is draft position. The Dolphins fared well enough behind Chad Henne to get a middle draft pick, but now well enough to be a good team. Henne threw more INTs than TDs, and Chad Pennington and Tyler Thigpen aren't exactly ready to jump in and lead the offense.
Miami needs a lot of work on the offense this offseason. Aside from QB, they need to address the RB position. Gabbert could very well win a position battle in Miami, but there doesn't appear to be a way for them to get into position to draft him.
4. Washington Redskins
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The Redskins simply don't have a desirable option at QB right now. Donovan McNabb will likely be too costly to keep, never mind being disenfranchised following the end of last season. He needs a last start somewhere else.
Rex Grossman (yes, he is still on a roster somewhere) isn't the answer, either.
The problem for Washington is they don't have the extra draft capital to move up to draft a QB. They have several holes on both sides of the ball that need attention, so surrendering picks would hurt the team overall. They would be better served trading down in the first round to get additional picks and not reach for the third QB of round one at pick 10.
Gabbert would be a good fit for Mike Shanahan's offense, though, and would win the starting job almost by default. He would be able to set up in the pocket and deliver swing passes to the Redskin RB committee and take advantage of Chris Cooley's talents.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
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In an unfortunate turn of events for the Bengals, Carson Palmer has said he would rather retire than play another down for Cincinnati. He has asked to be traded, as he feels he has something left to give...just not for Mike Brown.
The Bengals are in an interesting position. Can they afford to gamble that Palmer will be back, as they have no real option behind him on the bench? Regardless, they need a backup and a transition plan for the eight-year veteran with a bad knee and surgically repaired shoulder.
Cam Newton might be an option, but Gabbert would certainly step in and start for them next season unless Palmer has a change of heart.
Cincinnati has several young WRs to go along with Chad Ochocinco. The team isn't expected to be competitive next season, so dropping Gabbert into their offense to develop a rapport with his new targets could help get the team ahead of the curve for 2012.
2. Tennessee Titans
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The Titans could be the best possible landing point for Gabbert. Not so much because of Gabbert's capabilities, but because of what the Titans need from the QB position to have success.
Tennessee has a good offensive line and a potent rushing attack. They ask their QB to be a consistent game manager, and Vince Young and Kerry Collins were effective at avoiding interceptions. However, their completion percentages were a little shy of the mark.
Gabbert may not take a lot of risks, but neither does he make many mistakes.
He's perfectly happy throwing short bubble screens, swing passes to his RB and quick hitting passes, making him an ideal candidate to take over the QB position in Tennessee. After all, Chris Johnson had the most receptions for the Titans last season, which is a great fit for Gabbert.
Gabbert does have the arm strength to allow Kenny Britt and Nate Washington to stretch the field. With time from his offensive line, he certainly has the ability to set up in the pocket and look to throw a deep ball.
Gabbert also likes to use his TE, completing 90 passes to Michael Egnew last season. Bo Scaife would be a likely recipient of Gabbert's attention, coming off one of his worst seasons in six years with the Titans.
Gabbert's rookie season may not provide a marked improvement from what the Titans received from the QB position in '10, but he would provide more continuity to the position, which certainly wouldn't be a step back.
1. San Francisco 49ers
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The fanbase of the San Francisco 49ers are tired of losing. They are frustrated with the lack of production at the QB position, and dumbfounded by the decisions that have been made with the coaching staff since the York family took over operations of the team.
At least they were until three months ago.
The hiring of Jim Harbaugh has invigorated 49ers fans, despite his lack of NFL coaching experience. Fans expect him to buck the trend of collegiate coaches that simply couldn't find success in the NFL and see Harbaugh as the man that can bring the franchise back to relevance.
There is only one problem: Harbaugh doesn't have a QB.
Alex Smith is a free agent and was mired in mediocrity over the course of his career. He has a history of interceptions and injury, both of which are attributable, in part, to a poor offensive line and a lack of receiving options.
Gabbert would be a solid fit in San Francisco's west coast offense. He won't be asked to send the ball deep too often, and instead can focus on handing the ball off to Frank Gore and parlaying the ground game into a play action pass offense.
He would have Michael Crabtree to hit on quick slants and an occasional bubble screen, and he can repeat a pattern from Missouri...hit the TE. He had an excellent one in college and Vernon Davis is one of the best in the NFC.
If Gabbert is still on the board at pick seven, he will very likely be the starting QB for the 49ers in 2011.
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