NBA Playoff Predictions: 5 Things Dallas Mavs Must Do To Beat Portland
The Dallas Mavericks finished the season tied record-wise for the second seed in the Western Conference. A tie-breaker with the Los Angeles Lakers dropped them to No. 3, setting up a meeting with the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round.
Forget about the 57 wins or the playoff standings, the Mavericks seem to be considered underdogs even in the first round of the playoffs.
It would be a challenge to find a good amount NBA analysts picking Dallas to win this series. Everyone seems to be sinking the boat for the Mavericks before it sails.
In reality, the teams match up well, with clear advantages on both sides. It will be extremely tough for both teams to muster four wins.
The Mavericks have a realistic shot at avoiding an upset against the Trail Blazers, but they need to find a way to do the following five things to ensure they don’t go home with another disappointing early playoff exit
Manage Substitutions Wisely
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This one is entirely on Coach Rick Carlisle. He was widely criticized last season in the playoffs for not playing Rodrigue Beaubois enough.
The criticisms were warranted since Beaubois provided the right mix of speed, dribble penetration, and jump shooting the Mavericks desperately needed at the time against a good but slow defensive team.
Against the Portland Trail Blazers, several situations will be critical as far substitutions are concerned. For example, neither Barea nor Beaubois are able to contain Andre Miller, Wesley Mathews, or Brandon Roy.
Their minutes would have to be limited at the shooting guard position, with DeShawn Stevenson playing more than the usual amount for defensive purposes. Beaubois and Barea should be able to be much more effective against a line-up that features Rudy Fernandez and Patty Mills.
As far as the backcourt goes, Carlisle should find a way to have Tyson Chandler in the game for most of the time Aldridge is taking the court. There is no reason why Tyson should be risking cheap fouls when there is no other inside player in Portland’s roster. This brings us to our next point.
Keep Tyson Chandler On The Floor
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The Dallas Mavericks are a much better defensive (and offensive) team with Tyson Chandler on the floor. He is relatively quick for a center, and is able to guard big power forwards like LaMarcus Aldridge.
In the two Mavericks victories against Portland, Tyson Chandler had a double-double in each. In the two losses, he only managed five rebounds in one, and missed the other with an injury.
Chandler’s defensive ability is not the only benefit. Tyson’s ability to catch the ball and finish forces the opposing team to keep an eye on him at all times, which creates more space for Dirk Nowitzki to operate.
Chandler will be the X-factor in this series and his defensive presence, especially against LaMarcus Aldridge, will be vital for the success of the Mavericks.
Play Good Defense on LaMarcus Aldridge
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As mentioned before, Tyson Chandler’s presence should help in the team’s defensive approach against LaMarcus Aldridge. Even with Tyson Chandler’s defensive expertise, Dallas will need a team approach to contain Aldridge.
LaMarcus Aldridge has absolutely destroyed Dirk Nowitzki repeatedly on the block. Because of this, Dallas needs to be ready to double-team Aldridge as soon as he touches the ball down low.
Although Aldridge is able to finish above most NBA power forwards, bigger, stronger centers do give him a harder time.
Because of this, Dallas needs a big man like Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood on the floor at all times. Any line-ups featuring Dirk Nowitzki at center should be completely dismissed.
Take Care of the Ball
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The Mavericks cannot afford to turn the ball over against the Blazers. With Wesley Mathews, Rudy Fernandez, Gerald Wallace, and even big man Aldridge running the break, a turnover is a sure Portland bucket.
Turnovers has not been the Mavericks' biggest struggle, but faults in this department would only make the game that much harder for the Mavericks.
By taking care of the ball and limiting easy opportunities for Portland, the Mavericks would avoid energetic runs that could cost them games easily.
Make the Three-Ball
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This will be the Mavericks' sole category that will ensure them a victory over Portland. They have not been shooting the three-ball well, and their performances against Portland have not been an exception.
Every meeting between these teams has been close. A few three-balls here and there could give either team a huge advantage at the end of games.
Three-pointers are not only scores, but they are also mental weapons. They can change the momentum in the game easily.
If the Mavericks find their touch from three like they did in their last regular season game, they will have a significant advantage against Portland.
Conclusion
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The Mavericks have the experience and determination to make the correct decisions on both ends of the court to get past Portland in the first round.
At the end of the day, the Mavericks are a better team, even if they do not have a clear talent advantage against Portland specifically.
If the Mavericks are able to successfully do these five things in the playoffs against the Trail Blazers, they should be able to finish the series in five or six games.
Even if the series is extended to game seven, homecourt advantage should again be an aid for them to come out victorious.
