2011 NBA Playoff Predictions: Why the San Antonio Spurs Will Win the Wild West
One of the first things hammered into the minds of journalism majors is the KISS acronym.
Keep It Simple Stupid.
In other words, don't try to out-think yourself. Be creative, but not to the point where you confuse the audience.
When trying to decipher the NBA's Western Conference playoff picture, KISS is quite handy. There are a few teams that give fans and analysts reason to get creative with their predictions, but as we have seen over the past 12 years, this is a two-horse race.
Sorry, Oklahoma City. Maybe next year, Denver. Dallas, well, let's be honest, your window is shut tight despite another gaudy win total.
It's going to come down to the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers, the conference's No. 1 and No. 2 seeds.
Since the 1998-99 season, the Spurs and Lakers have accounted for nine of the last 12 NBA Champions banners. The finals have been absent one of these super powers just once during that span—in 2006, when the Miami Heat knocked off the Dallas Mavericks. From 1999-2004, they met in the postseason five times, and each time the series winner went on to represent the West in the NBA Finals.
Don't expect anything different this spring. Don't try to create any other outrageous scenarios. Keep it simple. The Spurs and Lakers are on a collision course to meet in the conference finals, and it's there that we will witness a changing of the guard.
After three years of showtime, glitz and pizzazz, the old sheriff has returned to reclaim his territory. The San Antonio Spurs will beat the Lakers to once again be the West's best.
There are four obvious reasons to like the Spurs, and their names are Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Gregg Popovich. That hasn't changed, but what has is the way they go about winning games.
San Antonio is still one of the league's better defensive teams. But one of the reasons they lost to the Lakers in the '04 and '08 playoffs was because they couldn't keep up offensively if L.A. was able to speed up the tempo. That isn't the case today, as the Spurs are actually a better offensive team across the board.
The Spurs finished the season ranked sixth in scoring, Los Angeles ninth. San Antonio was fifth in field goal percentage, the Lakers 11th. The most significant difference between the two is at the most important line on the hardwood—the three-point arc. The Spurs led the league by hitting just under 40 percent of their threes, whereas the Lakers shot just 35 percent, good enough for 18th.
What all this says is the Lakers aren't going to simply run away from Duncan and Co. in times they are able to play at a breakneck pace. In fact, these numbers show San Antonio is quite comfortable and efficient at that speed.
Depth is another area that favors San Antonio. The Lakers undoubtedly have the league's top sixth man in Lamar Odom, but that edge is withered if the oft-injured Andrew Bynum's knee sprain is more than just that. If Bynum is out, Odom becomes a starter and Shannon Brown becomes L.A.'s top bench player.
Rotations shorten a bit in the postseason, so for now let's assume Bynum plays and Odom comes off the bench. Under that scenario, the Lakers quartet of Odom, Brown, Matt Barnes and Steve Blake combine to average 33.8 points a night.
The Spurs second unit of George Hill, Matt Bonner, Antonio McDyess and Gary Neal combine for 34.
Two-tenths of a point hardly tips the scale, but now let's go with reality and assume Bynum is out for an extended period, if not the entire postseason. Shave off Odom's 14.4 points per game average, and suddenly the Lakers are playing eight men and getting around 19 points from the bench.
That means Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom absolutely have to bring their "A" games and hope Ron Artest can average double figures during his extended minutes.
Speaking of Bryant, what is the best way to beat Los Angeles?
Easy. By taming the Black Mamba.
While that is much easier said than done, the Spurs actually had success in the team's four meetings this season.
In four games against the Spurs, Kobe averaged 22.5 points, five assists, 6.8 rebounds and three turnovers per game. Not too bad other than the points being three less than his season average. Where it gets ugly is when you look at his shooting percentages.
Bryant converted on just 36 percent of his shots and 31 percent of his threes in those four contests.
Gasol is an All-Star and Odom is great, but the Lakers are very ordinary when Bryant struggles.
At its peak, the NBA has seen few rivalries as great as San Antonio and Los Angeles' has been over the past decade. In a few weeks, it will be renewed with a spot in the finals on the line, one that will be taken by the old sheriff.
