Formula One Japanese Grand Prix 2008 Preview

This weekend is Japan’s turn to host the F1 circus. It is one of the favourite events amongst the drivers and the fans.

The Japanese are fanatical about F1 racing, and the atmosphere is one of the best in the season. This weekend’s race could play a very vital role in where the championships will go.

This weekend will be the 24^th time that the Japanese GP has been staged, and the fourth time that the Toyota-owned Fuji Speedway has held the race.

The Japanese GP first took place at the Fuji circuit in 1976 in one of F1’s most historic races. It lashed down with rain, and Lauda pulled out of the race, as he considered his life more important than winning the championship.

James Hunt finished third and won the championship. The race took place again in 1977 before moving to Suzuka, where the Japanese GP has spent most of its tenure.

Suzuka is one of the world’s best and most loved tracks. It is unique in that it has a figure eight layout and is full of challenging corners. It’s very much like a giant Scalextric track.

The Dunlop and Spoon curves and the hair-raising 130r are the most well known corners. There is a giant theme park built as part of the Suzuka facility; it is part of the landscape of the track.

Suzuka has been well-known for dramatic title showdowns. It has regularly been the final race of the F1 season or thereabouts. In total, 11 Japanese GPs have settled the championship (1976, 1987-1991, 1996, 1998-2000, and 2003). On five occasions, these were final race deciders.

In 2007, the race went back to the Fuji Speedway. The verdict was that Suzuka needed a lot of upgrading, to jump up to the required standards in terms of facilities and safety.

Everyone was extremely disappointed, particularly that Fuji had now been modernized and looked on paper nowhere the near the challenge and spectacle of Suzuka. However, there was an element of surprise when the track actually got the thumbs up from F1 personnel.

The key characteristics include Mount Fuji in the background, a giant long straight at around 1.5km long.

That is a third longer than even the second longest straight on the calendar. It takes around 20 seconds to get down from the beginning of the straight to the end of it.

Although the layout looks simple, there are a lot of elevation changes, and many of the corners are blind. Turn 3, for example, is blind and taken at over 230km/h and in sixth gear.

100r is even faster at over 260 km/h. These are the highest G-Force corners on the lap at 4.26g and 4.36g, respectively.

The first two sectors overall flow very well and are quite quick. The only negative part of the layout is the twisty fiddly last sector. However, this has to be negotiated without any errors to get a decent lap time. A driver’s lap can be destroyed here.

Overall, this is a great track for overtaking. The final corner is very slow, which means the drivers can get closer to the car in front, and get a tow down the giant straight.

The first corner is also slow, so there is a chance to out-brake your rival down there. There are half chances in the hairpin, and into Turn 10 (the Dunlop corner) following 300r, if you are brave.

Japanese GP Statistics/Information

Number of laps: 67

Circuit Length: 4.563km

Lap Record: 1:28.193 (set in very wet conditions)

Last 10 winners

2007- Lewis Hamilton

2006- Fernando Alonso

2005- Kimi Räikkönen

2004- Michael Schumacher

2003- Rubens Barrichello

2002- Michael Schumacher

2001- Michael Schumacher

2000- Michael Schumacher

1999- Mika Häkkinen

1998- Mika Häkkinen

Most Wins

Michael Schumacher- 6

Gerherd Berger, Ayrton Senna, Damon Hill and Mika Häkkinen- 2

McLaren- 8

Ferrari- 7

Benetton, Williams- 3

Most Poles

Michael Schumacher- 8

Aryton Senna- 3

Mario Andretti, Gerhard Berger, Jacques Villeneuve- 2

Most Points

Michael Schumacher- 81

Mika Häkkinen- 46

Kimi Räikkönen- 35

Ayrton Senna, Gerhard Berger- 31

Most Laps led

Michael Schumacher- 306

Mika Hakkinen- 135

James Hunt- 134

Ayrton Senna- 112

Damon Hill- 83

Memorable moments

Japan has seen plenty of memorable moments. The first Japanese GP was in 1976 and as mentioned above still sticks in the mind of most F1 fans. The title was between Niki Lauda and James Hunt.

There was rain of biblical proportions on race day, which were potentially incredibly dangerous. Niki Lauda had survived a near fatal crash in Germany earlier that season. On this occasion he decided that his life wasn’t worth risking to pursue the championship.

James Hunt entered the race and only needed third place to clinch the title. He duly finished third and won the championship by a point.

There were always fireworks during Senna and Prost’s partnership together at McLaren. This feud reached its peak in the 1989 and 1990 title deciders at Suzuka. In the 1989 decider Senna had to overtake Prost to have any hope to retaining the title (which he won against Prost in 1988).

However, Prost wasn’t willing to let Senna past under any circumstance. When Senna attempted to overtake, Prost shut the door as he had planned to do before the race started.

Prost retired from the race on the spot. Senna got back onto the track but was disqualified for cutting the chicane. The Championship was Prost’s.

However, 12 months later, Senna would get his own back. Senna was starting ahead of Prost and he warned his rival that, if he attempted to pass him at turn 1, they would crash. It seemed Prost decided to ignore his rival's advice.

They ended up on a collision course and the inevitable happened. It was all over at the first corner. Senna was ahead on points going into that race, and the championship was his.

Later that decade, it would be Michael Schumacher and Mika Häkkinen deciding their championship battles at Suzuka. Michael had a great chance to be WDC in 1998, however his failure to get away off pole due to a stall ensured he had to go the back of the grid.

He fought his way through the pack at a fast rate of knots, and many thought he still had a chance. However, a tyre explosion ended his chances and Häkkinen won the title. It is speculated that loose debris may have caused the explosion.

In 2000, they would do battle again. Häkkinen had to win the race to keep his hopes alive. Häkkinen raced ahead of Schumacher at the start, and the pair had their own private battle miles ahead of anyone else including their teammates.

A small mid-race shower favoured Michael Schumacher, as he loved damp conditions. This allowed Michael to jump Häkkinen at the final stops and victory was his, along with his first Ferrari championship, and his third in his career overall.

In 2003 it was Raikkonen vs. Schumacher. This one was a longshot, however. Räikkönen had to win hoping Schumacher failed to score to be crowned champion. Rain at the wrong moment in qualifying, which put Schumacher down in 14th, gave Räikkönen some hope.

Barrichello held of Kimi and won the race. This was just as well, as Schumacher made very heavy work of gaining the point he needed. Along the way, he broke his front wing whilst trying to overtake Sato in the BAR and a fierce battle with his brother.

2005 wasn’t a title-deciding race but was one of the best Japanese GPs of all time. A mixed weather qualifying made a surprise grid. Räikkönen, Schumacher and Alonso had to fight through the pack. Alonso amazed fans by overtaking Schumacher around the outside in 130r. Räikkönen blasted past Fisichella on the last lap, in the one of the most amazing finishes to a race ever.

2006 didn’t conclude the championship but ensured it was all but over. Alonso fought back from fifth on the grid and was chasing Schumacher down for the lead of the race. However, Schumacher’s engine gave up on him and he lost the chance to become an eight-time world champion.

At the last race in 2007 (the first back at Fuji since 1977) Hamilton won in absolutely appalling conditions. Alonso, suffering from damage in an earlier collision, aqua-laned and crashed heavily. Hamilton left Fuji with a 12-point lead, which he went on to throw away in the final two races.

What is likely to happen this weekend?

Ferrari had an absolute nightmare in Singapore. In a race where they should have come away with a 1-2 and 18 points, they came away with nothing. They could have come to Fuji comfortably clear in the Constructors Championship.

Massa, on the other hand could have been three points clear in the Drivers Championship. One small error by one of the Ferrari mechanics means that instead, McLaren have overtaken Ferrari in the Constructors, and Hamilton is now leading Massa by seven points.

Small errors can cost championships.

However disappointed Ferrari may be feeling, they have to pick themselves up, as their chances are still very strong. Another twist could fall their way as opposed to against them.

The drivers championship is more or less certainly a two-horse battle between Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa now. It has been for quite some time now in all honesty.

Kimi Räikkönen is now 26 points behind and has to play the role of wingman. Heikki Kovalainen hasn’t been a feature of the championship fight, so he too is also playing the part of wingman.

The wingman who performs best for their team leader could give a huge bearing on the final outcome of this championship.

McLaren and Ferrari have been neck-and-neck all season long. Since the end of last season, the two car designs have continued to converge. They have been neck-and-neck at many of this season’s races.

However at the moment pace wise, Ferrari does seem to have the edge over McLaren, no matter what the track layout. The Ferrari still looks after its tyres a little bit better than the McLaren does. One of the most important variables in this weekend’s battle will undoubtedly be the weather.

In the wet conditions, Ferrari is no match for the McLaren. The Ferrari struggles to warm the tyres in these conditions, whereas McLaren have mastered this art.

In terms of wet weather drivers, Hamilton is on a different planet to Massa, who simply isn’t as well adjusted to these conditions.

Ferrari will be praying that they don’t fall victim to Fuji’s stubborn micro-climate. If is dry, then the track temperature will play an important role. A hot track temperature makes life harder for the tyres. Therefore this would suit Ferrari.

In the dry conditions, McLaren need a cool track temperature in order to compete with Ferrari evenly.

Overall, I think Ferrari and Massa will have the edge around Fuji. McLaren need to get both their drivers on the front row in order for the best chance of winning (Or a downpour of course).

If Massa can get pole position then he has a great chance of walking away with this race. Hamilton’s job then would be to finish second ahead of Raikkonen to minimize the damage.

Finishing third with Massa winning would be a disappointment for Hamilton, as his lead would drop to three points.

With Brazil being the last race where surely Ferrari will be stronger, Hamilton doesn’t want to need a big result going in the grand finale.

He is right to be cautious rather than throw the championship away like he did last year, but at the same time, he can’t afford too cautious an approach.

Being cool under pressure is very important in the business end of the season. Both Hamilton and Massa have fallen victim to pressure this season at one point or another.

Of course the championship battle isn’t the only thing of importance at Fuji. The midfield is still as intense as it has been all season.

Fernando Alonso provided a shock victory at Singapore. However, it will be extremely difficult for him to repeat that feat. The Renault has definitely improved over the last month or so, and Alonso could very well be best of the rest this weekend.

Let's remember that this Toyota’s home circuit and they will have been working very hard behind the scenes. They have a special department that focuses on the preparation for their home event, so that they can show off in front of the corporates.

Ralf Schumacher got pole position for the 2005 Japanese GP, and Toyota locked out the second row in 2006. They could well spring a shock this weekend and get right back at Renault in the hunt for fourth place in the Constructors Championship.

Toro Rosso should also be very strong again. The Ferrari engine in the back of their car should purr down the straight and in the quick first two sectors.

Toro Rosso should have another strong weekend, and Vettel could well finish fifth or sixth again. They are likely to outpace sisters Red Bull again who are still struggling to regain the form they had up to Silverstone.

Rosberg got a great result at Singapore (partly down to the stewards' incompetence). However, a repeat result is very unlikely at Fuji.

Overall, it could be a very tense weekend, and in a season where we have had twists and turns aplenty, who knows what could happen to surprise us this weekend?

Top 3 Prediction

1. Massa
2. Hamilton       
3. Raikkonen