NFL Draft 2011: 25 Horrible Draft Day Decisions to Brace for
We may never forget the fact that Ryan Leaf was at one time considered an option over Peyton Manning to be the No. 1 pick in the 1998 NFL Draft. Or that JaMarcus Russell was the first player chosen in 2007.
Every year the draft is full of bad decisions, some worse than others.
Which players will be part of the horrible decisions made in the 2011 NFL Draft, and which teams will be responsible for those blunders?
We have it all in our top 25 horrible draft decisions to brace for.
25. ESPN Will Again Tip off All Picks
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The NFL Draft is full of suspense, mystery and excitement. The 10 minutes between each pick are spent analyzing, arguing and betting on who the next player off the board will be, until ESPN cuts to a player crying in to his cellphone.
I love the mystery of the pick. I want to jump in the air when Roger Goodell announces the next selection. I want to hang on his every freaking word until he says: "The Carolina Panthers select..."
Stop ruining this for us, ESPN.
Please.
24. Days 2 and 3 of Draft Coverage Continue to Suck
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While this has absolutely nothing to do with bad draft picks, it has to be said.
The ESPN draft coverage on the second and third days absolutely sucks.
Mel Kiper is a fountain of knowledge, especially when talking about late-round guys who the regular fan doesn't know about. Why then do the ESPN producers let the talking heads on set keep re-hashing the same arguments over and over again?
Fans watch the second and third days of the draft to see their favorite players drafted, to find out who their teams are adding and to learn about those players.
Instead they get to hear for the one-millionth time how Tom Brady was pick No. 199.
23. Small School Players Are Overvalued
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Analysts are calling Villanova's Benjamin Ijalana a late first-round pick at left tackle after he played guard at what amounts to a Division-II school.
Eastern Washington's Taiwan Jones couldn't stay healthy in college and beat up on weak defenses, but he's being lauded as a second-round pick?
Every year analysts, writers and general managers fall in love with Cinderella. They hope they have found the next Jared Allen, when in fact they are finding average players who would have struggled to start on most Division-I football teams.
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22. Baylor's Danny Watkins Will Be Drafted Too High
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Danny Watkins is a good football player.
But at 26 years old, he should be.
For those of you in your mid-20s and older, remember back to when you were 18, 19 or 20 years old.
In your late teens and early 20s, you are strong and have energy like crazy, but by your mid 20s something changes. You become more aware of how to use your body. You get naturally stronger and more aggressive.
Danny Watkins was literally a man among boys at Baylor. NFL teams are too often caught looking at how well Watkins performed against boys and young men five-to-eight years younger than him.
In the end it will catch up with them. Watkins' shelf life in the NFL is four-to-five years shorter than every other draftee.
21. The Oakland Raiders Will Draft for Speed Again
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With no first-round pick due to the Richard Seymour trade, many people are forgetting just how bad the Oakland Raiders are at evaluating talent and using the draft.
Granted, the Raiders 2010 class was much better in terms of value, but those players have not produced enough to warrant passing grades for Al Davis and co.
In 2011, the Raiders have the No. 16 pick in Round 2, and with it they will draft one thing: speed.
The Raiders have needs for a vertical threat at wide receiver and for a cornerback who can replace Nnamdi Asomugha. Instead of drafting a quality, productive player in that spot, the Raiders will look at the 40-yard dash column, sort it by lowest time and draft whoever comes up first...guaranteed.
20. North Carolina's Greg Little Will Be the 3rd Wide Receiver Drafted
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If you are a fan of the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens or Atlanta Falcons let me apologize now.
Each of your team's have been linked to Greg Little via private workouts, combine interviews and general speculation.
Unfortunately for you and your fellow fans it looks like Greg Little will be a late first-round pick.
Little is a talented athlete, but he is not enough of a finished product to be considered as the No. 3 wide receiver in this draft class.
But he will be. Teams will be sucked in by his athletic ability, versatility and the exciting potential he possesses.
19. 1st Round Teams Forget About Martez Wilson
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The stat line on Illinois inside linebacker Martez Wilson is shockingly good. So why aren't NFL teams considering him as a first-round pick?
Wilson posted a mind-blowing 4.42 in the 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, he has excellent size for the position and he looked fully recovered from a herniated disk in his neck during the 2010 season.
Wilson checked out medically, he has had zero trouble off the field and he is the type of athlete you can build your entire defense around.
Unfortunately for him, NFL teams will forget about him in Round 1—making one team in Round 2 incredibly lucky.
18. Late 1st-Round Picks Will Be Traded in Excess
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The 2011 draft will be unique in the fact that many people, myself included, like the second tier of quarterbacks much better than the top-tiered guys.
Taking that one step further, I would rather have two late first-round picks than a top five pick this year.
General managers know that the 2011 class is full of talented players at the end of Round 1 and beginning of Round 2. Expect a flurry of trades from teams moving up into the late first round.
So where is the bad decision here? Teams drafting at the end of the first round are close to competing for a Super Bowl win or repeat. Why pass on a talented player who could put your team over the top in exchange for a mid or late-round pick?
17. Notre Dame Tight End Kyle Rudolph Will Fall to Round 2
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How is it that the best tight end in the draft, who just so happens to be a top-notch athlete, will fall to the second round?
Rudolph's college career has been plagued with freak injuries which have limited his production and time on the field. A clean bill of health was given to him during the NFL Scouting Combine and again during the medical re-check last week in Indianapolis.
Rudolph is healthy and ready to roll, but NFL teams are not sold on him.
This is a mistake.
Any team drafting from pick No. 20 on should seriously consider Rudolph if they are in search of a tight end.
16. The Indianapolis Colts Reach for an Offensive Tackle
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The Indianpolis Colts passed on offensive tackle Rodger Saffold in the 2010 NFL Draft and instead selected defensive end Jerry Hughes.
Saffold went on to play at a Pro Bowl level in 2010. Hughes didn't crack the starting lineup.
In 2011, Bill Polian's focus is clearly on drafting a left tackle to protect Peyton Manning. And he will do so even if they must reach for a player who does not deserve the No. 22 slot.
15. Da'Quan Bowers Will Be Drafted in Round 1
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Depending on who you believe, Da'Quan Bowers knee is either perfectly fine or completely shot.
What we can say for sure is that someone will make the colossal mistake of drafting Da'Quan Bowers in the first round.
It may be Minnesota, Detroit or even Tampa Bay, but it will happen. We promise.
Smart teams are removing Bowers from their draft boards altogether. The not-so-smart teams are keying in on the one-year wonder from Clemson.
14. Arkansas' Ryan Mallett Will Be Drafted Too High
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Much has been made about the alleged drug use and addiction of Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett. Until those rumors become debunked or substantiated, we can't do much about them.
What we can look at are the facts regarding Ryan Mallett as a quarterback and as a person.
Mallett transferred from Michigan after one season, when head coach Lloyd Carr was fired.
On March 1, 2009, he was arrested on charges of public intoxication. Mallett pled guilty.
In February 2010, Mallett had surgery on his left foot, with a follow-up surgery in June.
At the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine Mallett was questioned about drug use and addiction. He refused to answer questions regarding this.
Mallett's demeanor and off-field record are enough to cause NFL teams to pause when looking at him as a first-round pick.
Unfortunately, in the NFL talent wins out over character every time.
13. Mark Ingram Will Be Drafted Over Mikel Leshoure
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Peter King recently reported something that we have thought all year.
"Leshoure gaining on Mark Ingram in race to be first RB taken" was the headline.
The problem is that too many NFL teams are already in love with Ingram. They have their sights set on the Heisman winner and won't even consider another back in front of him.
They are wrong.
Ingram is not the dynamic runner that Leshoure is, but this will not keep one NFL team from making the mistake of drafting Mark Ingram over Mikel Leshoure.
12. Mike Pouncey Will Be Drafted Over Rodney Hudson
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Mike Pouncey is living off the name of his brother, Maurkice.
Take a look at the one season Mike had to play without his brother next to him on the Florida offensive line.
At center, Pouncey was a liability in replacing his brother. The Gators were plagued with bad snaps, missed snap counts and overall bad play from No. 55.
At guard, Pouncey shows more promise, but he has already proclaimed that he sees himself as a center in the NFL.
Rodney Hudson on the other hand is the picture of consistency. He is able to play guard or center equally well and was, in our eyes, the best overall blocker at the 2011 Senior Bowl.
11. Five Players Who Won't Be Drafted in Round 1 That Should Be
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5. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
The powerful Ohio State defensive end has been forgotten in the pre-draft buzz. He is a good fit as a right end or a 5-technique lineman in a 3-4 defense.
4. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
Freak injuries be damned. Rudolph is the 2011 version of Patriots' tight end Rob Gronkowski.
3. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (FL)
Athletic covermen with Harris' size and speed are rare. Pittsburgh and Baltimore should take notice at the end of Round 1.
2. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
Dalton's name is getting hotter as the draft nears. He's the draft's best fit as a West Coast offense quarterback. Can you say "San Francisco?"
1. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
As mentioned before, Leshoure is the best running back in this class. It's scary how few people are recognizing this.
10. Five Players Who Will Be Drafted in Round 1 That Shouldn't Be
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5. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
Some analysts have Solder as their No. 1 overall tackle. We have him as our fifth. Buyer beware.
4. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
Or as I like to call him, "Aqib Talib 2." Smith's off-the-field and attitude problems are enough to keep smart NFL teams away.
3. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
Many are on the fence about Mallett, but we have a feeling that a team will trade back in to Round 1 and grab him. They shouldn't.
2. Jake Locker, QB, Washington
The No. 1 requirement for a quarterback to succeed in the NFL is accuracy. Locker's is bad.
1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Knee injuries, questionable speed and limited potential are all reasons Ingram should be a second-round pick.
9. Jake Locker Will Be Drafted Too High
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We would be willing to bet that Jake Locker will be drafted in the first round. And he really shouldn't be.
Locker is nowhere near a finished product and will struggle if pushed in to a starting role early on.
We do like Jake Locker, but as a developmental prospect. Seattle would be a good fit, where he can learn behind Matt Hasselbeck for a few seasons. New Orleans, Indianapolis or New England would be even better fits...in the second round.
Locker has his good qualities, but he should not be a first-round pick.
8. Gabe Carimi Will Not Be the 1st Tackle Drafted
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During the 2010 season, Gabe Carimi faced three defensive ends who will likely be drafted in the first round this year. How did he do?
Versus Adrian Clayborn (Iowa): one solo tackle, one sack
Versus Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue): two solo tackles
Versus Cameron Heyward (Ohio State): two solo tackles
Carimi is no joke.
On most boards, he is ranked as the fourth or fifth best offensive tackle. We have him No. 1 overall.
Carimi will not be drafted first, that honor will likely go to USC's Tyron Smith, but he should be.
7. Cameron Jordan Will Fall out of the Top 10
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When Warren Sapp fell to the No. 12 overall pick in the 1995 NFL Draft, it went down as one of the biggest mistakes of the last 20 years in the NFL Draft.
The teams who pass on Cal's Cameron Jordan will be making a similar mistake.
Jordan is, by far, the best defensive end in this draft. He can play end, defensive tackle and has even lined up at outside linebacker in workouts.
No player at defensive end has more ability right now, or more potential, than Jordan.
6. Dallas Cowboys Pass on Prince Amukamara for Tyron Smith
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The Dallas Cowboys need a cornerback in the worst way. With the No. 9 pick overall they are likely to see stud corner Prince Amukamara on the board.
And they will pass on him for a right tackle.
Tyron Smith has caught the eye of Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones, much like Felix Jones did before the 2008 draft. Jerry is locked in to believing Smith is the missing piece on an overrated roster.
The Cowboys will make the unfortunate mistake of passing on a Pro Bowl cornerback for an offensive tackle with more potential than productivity.
5. Wide Receiver Julio Jones Will Be Drafted Before A.J. Green
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Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones brings a lot to the table, but he's not A.J. Green.
Jones has been injured throughout his career at Alabama, he looks slow on film while being sprinter fast on a track and really excels only when catching and running—against college defensive backs.
This isn't to say Jones will not be a very good NFL receiver.
The issue is that A.J. Green is a once-in-five-years talent. He's better than every receiver in the 2010 draft, and would win some arguments as to if he is a better prospect than Michael Crabtree was in 2009.
Green is, simply put, better. But we still think Jones is drafted before him.
4. Patrick Peterson Will Fall out of the Top 5 Picks
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The fact that Patrick Peterson is not a lock to go No. 1 overall confuses us.
No college cornerback has been as dominating or as electric since Charles Woodson won the Heisman trophy at Michigan. And look how well that turned out for the Packers.
Peterson, unlike Cam Newton, will make an immediate impact in the NFL.There is no wait time, no developing. It's immediate.
But there is a stigma that cornerbacks should not be drafted No. 1 overall, so Carolina will miss out on the best cornerback in the last 10 years.
As will Denver, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Arizona in their haste to draft defensive tackles and quarterbacks.
3. The Bengals Pass on Nick Fairley at No. 4 Overall
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While we chided the top five teams for passing on our No. 1 player, Patrick Peterson, it actually makes sense for the Bengals to pass on him.
What doesn't make sense is for Cincinnati to draft a quarterback, wide receiver or defensive end.
Here's why:
The Bengals have Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph at cornerback right now, since there is no free agency. Even if a new CBA is signed, it is very unlikely the Bengals would lose Joseph.
The Bengals also have Carson Palmer, who they can trade for additional draft picks. As we said earlier in this article, we wouldn't draft a quarterback high in this class any way. Cincinnati should resist the urge to draft Blaine Gabbert here.
At defensive end we like Carlos Dunlap, a lot. Cincinnati will be tempted by Robert Quinn at No. 4, but they should wait until Round 2 and pick up a player like Jabaal Sheard.
Why?
Nick Fairley is the answer, Bengals fans. He's big, nasty and the type of penetrating presence on the interior defensive line Cincinnati needs to win right now.
2. Tennessee Will Trade the Farm to Denver for No. 2 Overall
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The Tennessee Titans are desperate for a quarterback to replace Vince Young, who is expected to be cut. Blaine Gabbert has caught their eye, but they know the chances of drafting him at No. 8 overall are slim.
So what will Tennessee do?
Instead of drafting a defensive lineman in Round 1 and grabbing the best quarterback available in the second round, they will trade pick No. 8 overall plus 2012 first and fourth round picks to Denver in exchange for the second pick in the first round.
1. Cam Newton Will Be Drafted No. 1 Overall
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When will NFL teams learn that you do not draft quarterbacks No. 1 overall?
Let's look at the last few quarterbacks drafted first overall.
2010: Sam Bradford
Bradford played well as a rookie and looks like a franchise quarterback.
2009: Matthew Stafford
Injured first two seasons and has not produced. Future is questionable.
2007: JaMarcus Russell
Perhaps the biggest draft bust of all-time.
2005: Alex Smith
Perhaps the second biggest draft bust of all-time.
2004: Eli Manning
If his last name were "Smith," he would be a backup. He won a Super Bowl with a great defense and one lucky deep throw.
2003: Carson Palmer
One of the most overrated quarterbacks of the last 10 years.
2002: David Carr
Failure
Newton is simply next in a long line of bad decisions at quarterback.
And for those wondering, Cam Newton is not Sam Bradford. Period.
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