NBA Playoffs 2011: Eastern Conference First Round Matchups Betting Preview
The Eastern Conference first round playoff matches are set:
(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers.
(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers.
(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks
(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks.
It is that time again.
While we most certainly enjoy these match-ups as a spectator, bettors everywhere must be aware of trends, statistics and calculated predictions. While nothing is certain, this slide show will break down the Eastern conference first round playoff matches, focusing on trends and spreads.
While we do not have any ability that can guarantee a successful postseason from a gambling standpoint, evidence can allow us to make the right picks and in turn, make a lot of money.
Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
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Prediction: The Bulls in five.
Chicago is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 games.
The Bulls are 48-30-2 against the spread throughout the season, they perform best on one day rest where they are 24-11 against the spread. They score more on the road than at home and despite shooting a poor 46 field goal percentage per game, they hold their opponents to an average of 43 percent.
They are also significantly better than the Pacers when it comes to rebounding.
Indiana are 38-41-2 against the spread. A telling stat is the fact that the Pacers are 1-5 against the spread against teams with a home winning percentage of 60 or over.
The Bulls have the number one defense in the league. The Pacers are ranked 17th in the league.
Head-to-head the Bulls lead the season series 3-1.
Take the Bulls in this one against the spread and you should win comfortably. The Pacers simply don't match-up well against the Bulls and don't have the interior presence to provide a threat.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
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Prediction: Miami Heat in six.
The Heat are red hot, winning eight of their last ten. Interesting factor: their playoff starting lineup has already been cemented with Mike Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas supporting the big three. The Heat are 3-0 with this lineup.
The Heat are 39-41-1 against the spread. Despite leading the league with a winning margin per game by 7.3 points, the Heat's spreads are usually inflated because the public loves them.
They have a great offense, which leads the league in two point field goal percentage and the big three average 71 ppg.
The Sixers simply cover spreads. Their record is 46-34-1 against the spread and are equally good at covering spreads home, as opposed to being on another floor, because they have identical records at 23-17.
On two days rest the Heat are 3-8 against the spread while the Sixers are 7-4.
The Heat won the season series between the two teams, 3-0.
While you should expect Miami to take this series outright, the Sixers are the ones who are better at covering spreads and are the team to take when looking at the spread.
Boston Celics vs. New York Knicks
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Prediction: Celtics in seven.
The Celtics simply aren't the same without Kendrick Perkins.
The Knicks are 46-32-2 against the spread, whereas the Celtics are 37-42-2. The Knicks are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against the NBA Atlantic Division. At home, the Knicks are 24-16 against the spread while the Celtics are 21-18.
The Celtics are second in defense while the Knicks rank 26th. While the series promises to be an exciting match-up between two rivals, the Knicks have a clear edge when we look at spreads. The Celtics play close games and have struggled as of late. The Knicks are starting to find their form and have consistently covered spreads throughout the season.
Head-to-head, the Knicks are losing the season series 0-3, however have covered spreads against the Celtics 2-1 this season.
Like the Miami Heat, the Boston Celtics are a favorable public team and spreads tend to be inflated. Take the Knicks when betting on spreads, but expect the Celtics to close it out in the tightest series of all first round match-ups.
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
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Prediction: Orlando Magic in six.
For gamblers, this is a match-up of the bad vs. the ugly. Orlando is 34-46-1 against the spread this season while the Hawks are 37-44. Atlanta have a terrible offense and a good defense. The Magic have a mediocre offense but have a great defense.
The Magic are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight at home, while the Hawks have lost four straight.
There is no definitive edge between these two teams from a gambling standpoint because they both are statistically unimpressive. The only positive trends between these two teams is the fact that games tend to go under.
The Magic have the better team on paper and have the better record, they should win this series.
However when it comes to betting on spreads, neither team shows a definitive edge and it's best that you avoid betting significant amounts on either team.
