2011 NFL Draft: Mocking the New England Patriots' Picks, Version 2.0

Coming off of a 14-2 regular season, the New England Patriots are poised to contend for years to come.

However, as their playoff loss to the division rival Jets showed, the team still needs upgrades at several spots. The Patriots are considered stronger on the offensive side of the ball, as they are led by quarterback and reigning MVP Tom Brady, but in their last few playoff losses, they’ve actually struggled to score while their defense has held up fairly well. Clearly, both sides need to be addressed.

Luckily, coach Bill Belichick has stuck to his trademark strategy of stockpiling draft picks and building his team from the ground up. The Patriots possess nine picks in the upcoming draft, including two in each of the first three rounds.

Here are their positions of need and the players they could target to help fill them.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

In my mind, this is the single biggest need for the Patriots.

Despite having two Pro Bowlers in the secondary, their pass defense in 2010 ranked among the league’s worst in terms of yardage. The culprit was the pass rush, which generated a mediocre 36 sacks on the year, and even that figure is skewed because they played twice against the horrendous Bills offensive line. In fairness to the pass rushers, Belichick runs a very conservative 3-4 scheme which rarely lets them cut loose. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that New England’s top three OLBs are a journeyman (Rob Ninkovich), a situational pass rusher (Tully Banta-Cain) and a rookie who shows some potential, but only generated a single sack (Jermaine Cunningham). Something must be done.

Barring a trade up (unlikely, if history is any indication), the Patriots’ top picks will be at numbers 17, 28, and 33. The two top players who could fall down this far are Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson) and Aldon Smith (Missouri).

Bowers is a terrific talent and could certainly wind up being a steal for someone, but the health of his knee is a huge concern, and Belichick would most likely pass on him.

Smith, on the other hand, has the prototypical pass rushing build (6’4”, 263 lbs) and athleticism (4.74-second 40-yard dash at the combine) that the Patriots have lacked since the Willie McGinest days.

Two other early targets could be Brooks Reed (Arizona), who showed tremendous short range explosiveness at the combine, and Akeem Ayers, who has the versatility that Belichick loves. If they prefer to wait for the middle rounds, they could grab a rawer prospect like Sam Acho (Texas), Chris Carter (Fresno State) or Dontay Moch (Nevada).

DEFENSIVE END

While nose tackle Vince Wilfork is among the game’s best, he is flanked by journeyman Gerard Warren and a revolving door of underwhelming youngsters like Ron Brace and Brandon Deaderick. Mike Wright is a solid situational player (he actually led the team with 5.5 sacks) and Ty Warren will be returning from the hip injury that cost him his 2010 season, but it remains to be seen if he can return to the outstanding player he used to be.

The Patriots will be looking for a long term answer at the DE position, and luckily, this year’s class is absolutely stacked at the position.

J.J. Watt (Wisconsin) is arguably the top option who could fall to No. 17, but the Patriots reportedly refuse to deal with his agent, Tom Condon, after an incident involving former tight end Ben Watson. Another outstanding prospect is Cameron Jordan (California), who has experience in the 3-4—a relatively rare quality in a college player. Cameron Heyward (Ohio State) is a smart player who excels against the run.

Other possibilities include Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple), Marvin Austin (North Carolina), Corey Liuget (Illinois), Stephen Paea (Oregon State), Drake Nevis (LSU) and Adrian Clayborn (Iowa). With so many excellent options, the Patriots have some terrific draft flexibility. They are almost sure to trade down at some point and acquire future picks.

CORNERBACK

This is the other reason for New England’s woes in pass defense. The Patriots hit a home run when they took Devin McCourty in the first round last year. Unfortunately, the other CB spot was manned in 2010 by Darius Butler, who struggled, while Kyle Arrington, was relegated to nickelback. They do have Leigh Bodden returning, but he’s an injury prone player who will turn 30 later this year.

The best CB prospects in this draft will either be gone by the time the Patriots pick (Patrick Peterson of LSU and Prince Amukamara of Nebraska) or have serious character concerns (Jimmy Smith of Colorado).

That means that Belichick will probably wait until the late second or middle rounds to take a corner.

There are some intriguing options here, such as Curtis Brown (Texas), a reliable starter throughout college. Kendric Burney (North Carolina) is undersized, but makes up for it with his ballhawking skills. If he has a clean bill of health, Ras-I Dowling (Virginia) could be a steal. Johnny Patrick (Louisville), Davon House (New Mexico State) and Brandon Burton (Utah) are some other possible considerations.

FREE SAFETY

Despite making the Pro Bowl, current FS Brandon Meriweather is a mixed bag. On the one hand, he’s a very gifted athlete and a tenacious player. On the other, his instincts in coverage are questionable, he misses some tackles and often makes dirty plays, such as his fine-inducing helmet to helmet hit on Baltimore tight end Todd Heap. But the real kicker for Meriweather was an offseason incident in which he allegedly shot a couple of men in his Florida hometown. Regardless of the legal outcome, it is concerning that Meriweather’s name comes up in such incidents (he was also involved in a firearm related altercation in college), and Belichick is sure to be unhappy.

The Patriots might not cut or trade Meriweather (at the moment, they can’t do either because of the lockout), but they may let him walk as a free agent when his contract runs out. In that case, they’ll need to think about a successor.

This position is a lesser priority, and there are no overly impressive prospects in the vein of last year’s Eric Berry, so the Patriots will probably grab someone in the middle rounds. Quinton Carter (Oklahoma), Deunta Williams (North Carolina) and Shiloh Keo (Idaho) could all appeal to Bill Belichick.

GUARD

Both guard spots are question marks for the Patriots at the moment. Stephen Neal just retired and the incumbent in his place is Dan Connolly, who is a solid backup, but less than ideal as a starting option, especially after being abused by Jets DE Shaun Ellis in the playoff loss.

Logan Mankins is one of the best in the business, but he has had an ongoing contract dispute with the team. The Patriots just slapped the franchise tag on him to keep him in town for one more year, but if a long-term extension cannot be reached, they may look to deal him and get some kind of value in return.

If Mankins is traded, he would presumably fetch a high draft pick in return, so for the moment, I will assume that the Patriots only need to find one guard with their current picks. Quality interior linemen are plentiful in the middle rounds, but the Patriots showed a willingness to grab an exceptional one in the first round with Mankins, so they could take a hard look at Mike Pouncey (Florida). Pouncey is easily the best interior lineman in this draft class, and his game compares to that of his twin brother Maurkice, who made the Pro Bowl last year as a rookie with the Steelers. The Patriots should be able to grab him with the No. 17 or possibly the No. 28 pick.

If they pass on Pouncey, they will still have some good options in Marcus Cannon (TCU), Rodney Hudson (Florida State), Danny Watkins (Baylor) or Orlando Franklin (Miami).

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

The Patriots have an outstanding young right tackle in Sebastian Vollmer, but longtime left tackle Matt Light is an impending free agent. Given Light’s decline and likely price tag, Belichick will probably let him walk and find a replacement. While LT is generally considered one of the most vital positions, the Patriots have some leverage because they can simply move Vollmer over and find a new RT. They also have an excellent offensive line coach in Dante Scarnecchia, who can make the most of the talent he’s given.

While New England could explore some early options like Anthony Castonzo (BC) or Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State), they’ll probably wait because they have bigger needs at outside linebacker, defensive end and guard. Benjamin Ijalana (Villanova) or Nate Solder (Colorado) could slip to them in the second, or they could nab someone like Joseph Barksdale (LSU) or James Brewer (Indiana) in the third.

WIDE RECEIVER

For the moment, New England is all set with Deion Branch and Wes Welker as the starters, but there are some concerns with age and injuries to merit injecting some youth at the position.

They do have a few young WRs waiting in the wings, but Julian Edelman is strictly a slot receiver, Brandon Tate struggles with drops and Taylor Price didn’t show much as a rookie.

They could also use a deep option to replace the production of Randy Moss.

Randall Cobb (Kentucky) is generating a lot of buzz at the moment and could be available in the second round. Titus Young (Boise State) is a tremendous vertical threat. Torrey Smith (Maryland) and Leonard Hankerson (Miami) could also be available early, while Austin Pettis (Boise State), Tandon Doss (Indiana) and Edmund Gates (Abilene Christian) should be there in rounds three to five.

RUNNING BACK

Many mock draft authors have predicted that the Patriots will take either Mark Ingram (Alabama) or Mikel Leshoure (Illinois) in the first. I don’t see his happening, as they have much more pressing needs. Moreover, they use a committee approach to running the ball and have an excellent run blocking line. Nevertheless, they could use another body to complement BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead.

There are some good middle round choices available, like DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma), Shane Vereen (California), Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech) and Daniel Thomas (Kansas State). New England will likely pick up someone here.

I believe the Patriots are set at all the other positions. While they could certainly pursue some depth in the later rounds, their early and middle picks should be devoted to filling the aforementioned holes.

Mock drafts are always difficult, and the Patriots are especially unpredictable because of their propensity for trading around, but it’s fun to take a stab at it anyway. So putting it all together, an ideal draft for them might look something like this:

First Round (No. 17): OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri

First Round (No. 28): G Mike Pouncey, Florida

Second Round (No. 33): DE Cameron Heyward, Ohio State

Second Round (No. 60): WR Titus Young, Boise State

Third Round (No. 74): OT Joseph Barksdale, LSU

Third Round (No. 92): CB Kendric Burney, North Carolina

Fourth Round (No. 124): RB Shane Vereen, California

Fifth Round (No. 156): S Shiloh Keo, Idaho

Sixth Round (No. 184): OL/DL depth

While 2010 came to a very disappointing end for the Patriots, they should be able to add some serious ammunition in the draft and contend for many years to come.