Who Will Lose First: Giants or Titans?

By Derek Lofland.

With the Buffalo Bills being destroyed in "The Desert" by the Cardinals, 41-17, there are now only two teams that remain unbeaten in the 2008 NFL season.

The 5-0 Tennessee Titans and the 4-0 New York Giants have established themselves as the early-season powerhouses in the NFL.

Last year, we had a New England vs. Dallas game early in the season to gauge where the two teams stood.

This year, the Giants and Titans do not meet up to stumble one another’s perfect record. Therefore, we are left to speculate as to which team will lose first.
 
Predicting the future is always difficult, but I feel it never hurts to look back toward the past and see if any trends can be found. Here are all the seasons from this decade and the last team to lose a game.

The first number is the team's scoring offense rank. The second number is the team's defensive rank.

2007 Patriots (16-0), 1st, 4th,
2006 Colts (9-0), 1st, 23rd
2005 Colts (13-0), 2nd, 2nd,
2004 Eagles (7-0), 8th, 2nd
2003 Chiefs (9-0), 1st, 19th
2002 Raiders (4-0), 2nd, 6th
2001 St Louis (6-0), 1st, 7th,
2000 St Louis (6-0), 1st, 31st

Now, here are the stats for the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans:

 
2008           Giants                 4-0                                 1st                                       2nd

2008           Titans                 5-0                                 13th(t)                                  1st
 
Here are the factors I think those past teams had in common:
 
1) Offense is King: While defense does win championships, the NFL is still a quarterbacks’ league. Seven of those eight offenses were in the top two in the NFL. If you look at these starts, you have Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, and Kurt Warner on the list.

That is a lot of MVP hardware and a considerable amount of Pro Bowl appearances. Furthermore, Trent Green and Rich Gannon are not bad quarterbacks. Gannon won the MVP award in 2002, and Green had four seasons where he surpassed 20 touchdown passes, and three seasons where he surpassed 4,000 yards passing. He made the Pro Bowl in the 2003 season.
 
I think weather is a big reason for that. Offenses tend to flourish in September, October, and early November, when the weather is still nice in many parts of the country. Then, when the weather starts to turn bad and cold, the defenses take on an even more important role.
 
When you look at it from that standpoint, the Giants would seem to have the clear edge. Eli Manning has never made a Pro Bowl, but that should change this year. He helped lead the Giants to a Super Bowl win in 2007. He is on pace for 336 completions in 528 attempts, 63.6 completion percentage, 4,128 yards passing, 24 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a QB rating of 99.7. Those numbers will get him to Hawaii. He is starting to get respect as a top NFL signal caller.
 
Kerry Collins has also been a successful quarterback in the NFL. He helped lead the Carolina Panthers to the NFC Championship Game in just his second year. It was also Carolina's second year in the NFL. Collins' best year both individually and team wise was when he led the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000.

However, his best years, in terms of individual production are behind him. He was supposed to be holding a clipboard for Vince Young, not starting for a playoff team. Vince was playing badly, injured, and Collins took the starting job in Tennessee.

At this point in his career, he is nowhere in the league of guys on the above list; in fact, he isn't even Pro Bowl material. He has three touchdown passes, three interceptions, and a 73.1 QB rating. Collins could lose his job if he plays poorly in a couple of games.
 

2) Weak Divisions: Most of these teams did not play in particularly strong divisions. The 2007 Patriots were the only team in the AFC East with a record above .500 in 2007. The same could be said about the NFC East in 2004 when the Eagles started 7-0. The 2006 Colts had to contend with the .500 Jags and Titans. The 2003 Chiefs had a 10-win Denver team in the division, with a 4-12 Raiders and Chargers squads behind that.
 
That isn't to say teams can't start hot with good teams in the division. The 2005 Colts started 13-0, despite having a 12-4 Jags team in the division. The 2001 Rams had to deal with a 12-4 San Francisco 49ers team. However, as common sense suggests, it is easier to beat bad teams than good teams. Playing in a weak division can really help a team draw fairly easier matchups and put off any early-season loss.
 
That would seem to favor the Titans over the Giants in our case. The NFC East is brutal this year. The division is a combined 14-5. Despite the Giants' 4-0 start, they have a one-half game lead over Dallas and Washington. Philadelphia is 2-3 in large part to narrow losses at Dallas and against Washington.
 
Tennessee has a little bit easier of a road to haul. The Houston Texans are playing poorly right now and stand at 0-4. The Colts have injury and performance issues and are 2-2. They needed miracle comebacks against Houston and Minnesota to get their two wins.

Jacksonville sits at 2-3. They have lost close games to Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, all of whom are in first place in their respective divisions. The AFC South is by no means a cakewalk division. Jacksonville and Indianapolis should be in the playoff hunt the entire season. However, the Giants play in the NFC East, which is the toughest division in football.
 
3) Good balance: Most of the teams on this list had great balance. The 2000 Rams, 2003 Chiefs, and 2006 Colts did lack good defenses. However, they were very potent on the offensive side of the ball.

As I said earlier, seven of the eight offenses on this list finished either first or second in the NFL in scoring. The Eagles had a very good scoring offense that slipped at the end of the year when they rested all their starters, including Donovan McNabb and the injured Terrell Owens.
 
When you look at these two teams and try to decide who has the best balance, it isn't even close. The Giants are playing the best football in the NFL. If you average out their season totals, they are first in scoring offense, first in yards gained, first in rushing yards, and sixth in passing yards.

On the defensive side of the ball, they are second in scoring defense, third in yards allowed, second in passing yards allowed, and sixth in rushing yards allowed, crippling any opponents’ ability to penetrate them.

They have given up only one rushing touchdown this season and are tied for third in the NFL in sacks with 15. It doesn't get much better than that. That is the reason they have such a good point differential. They are at plus 78, which currently leads the NFL.
 
The Titans, on the other hand, do not have as good of a balance. While they are second in point differential at plus 58, it is mainly because of the defensive side of the football. They are first in points allowed per game, fifth in yards allowed, seventh in passing yards allowed, and 11th in rushing yards allowed.

They are also tied for the third most sacks in the NFL with 15. It is arguably one of the most impermeable defenses in the NFL.
 
However, on offense, they are not nearly as consistent. Even though the Titans rank 13th in points scored, they only rank 25th in offensive yards gained. Even though they are thought of as a dominant running team, they rank only 13th in yards gained on the ground.

The Chris Johnson-LenDale White duo is a good running back combo, but they lack a dominant receiver in the passing game. That puts a lot of pressure on the Titans’ defense to win games. If the Titans' defense has a bad game, they will probably lose. If the Giants have a bad day on the defensive side of the ball, the offense could still bail them out.

Therefore, I would say the Giants have the better team and should have a better chance to compete for the Super Bowl.
 

However, the question we are dealing with is not who we would rank first in the Power Rankings. Our argument is about who will stay unbeaten the longest.

While it is important to look at the teams’ strengths and weaknesses, you also have to look at the schedule. An inferior team can have a better record if the schedule puts that team in a better position to win games. We see that play out in the playoffs year after year, as teams with 9-7 or 10-6 records travel and defeat 12-4 or better teams.   

Sometimes that isn't the case. If we were debating between the '07 Patriots and this year's Titans squad, I wouldn't even bother to look at the schedule. The Patriots were vastly superior to every team in the NFL. No matter whom they played, they were the favorite.

Neither the Titans nor the Giants have that type of dominance at this point. While the Giants look good in the overall rankings, they also won a home game in OT against the (0-5) Bengals.

To stay unbeaten, a team must have great consistency. A few mistakes can turn a sure victory into defeat. Therefore the schedule will probably play a huge role in who loses first...

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