UFC 129: Complete Breakdown of Every Fight

One of the biggest events in UFC history is less than three weeks away.

UFC 129 sold out faster than any event in UFC history, and with good reason.

With dual title fights featuring two of the three best fighters in the world and a light heavyweight super fight with 'Captain America' involved, this card is one of the best of the year.

Let's break it down.

Yves Jabouin vs Pablo Garza

Fight Analysis: Both guys have shown they can finish fights in impressive fashion, as each has plenty of stoppages on their resumes. Expect a high-energy fight in the featherweight division.

Keys to Victory:

Jabouin: Keep the fight on the feet. While Jabouin has only lost one fight due to submission, Garza's ground game is underrated and his striking is probably a bit overrated due to his brutal flying-knee KO of Fredson Paixão on The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. 

Garza: Finish the fight quickly. If Garza can get the fight to the ground early in the fight, he has a great chance to walk away with a victory. Of his 10 wins, six are by submission and four of those have come in the first round.

Prediction: Jabouin is just too strong for Garza. He will keep the fight upright and deliver a knockout in the second round.

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson

Fight Analysis: A classic "striker vs grappler" matchup, this fight comes down to whether Makdessi can shut down Watson's takedowns and stay away from his world class jiu-jitsu.

Keys to Victory:

Makdessi: Takedown defense. Makdessi showed an excellent sprawl in his UFC debut back at UFC 124. He also has a huge advantage on the feet, where he uses a variety of kicks to keep his opponents guessing. His six first-round stoppages show he can finish fights when given the opportunity.

Watson: Get the fight to the mat. Watson is the head jiu-jitsu coach for Matt Hughes and has an impressive grappling record, but if he stays on the feet against Makdessi, it could be a quick night for him.

Prediction: Watson didn't show that his wrestling was good enough to take guys down at will during his run on The Ultimate Fighter 12. Makdessi should be able to keep the fight on the feet and score an impressive first-round knockout.

Jason MacDonald vs Ryan Jensen

Fight Analysis: Two UFC veterans fighting for their jobs. Both have good ground games and the ability to finish the fight whenever it hits the mat.

Keys to Victory:

MacDonald: Survive the early onslaught. Jensen always comes out strong, but if MacDonald can keep his composure and stay out of trouble, he can use Jensen's aggression against him by catching him in a submission. If the fight hits the later rounds, MacDonald's advantage grows even further, given Jensen's questionable cardio.

Jensen: If he can pace himself and not use up all of his energy in the first round, Jensen might be the favorite here. Jensen can use his wrestling and top control to neutralize the submissions of 'The Athlete' and win a lopsided decision.

Prediction: MacDonald is the obvious pick here. Jensen has been caught in numerous submissions during his UFC career and MacDonald's jiu-jitsu is outstanding. Expect a wrestling-oriented game plan to win Jensen rounds one and two, but MacDonald will end the fight in the third with a well-timed triangle choke.

Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia

Fight Analysis: An early favorite for Fight of the Night honors, this 135lb fight features Menjivar's first fight in the Octagon since 2004, and Valencia looking to avoid dropping two straight for the third time in his career.

Keys to Victory:

Menjivar: Force Valencia to stand and bang. While Valencia isn't Demian Maia on the ground, most of his stoppage wins have come there, and Menjivar has an advantage on the feet. Menjivar has the power to leave Valencia lying face down on the mat. 

Valencia: Take the fight to the ground. Menjivar might have a better ground game, but if Valencia can get on top and work some ground-and-pound, he could squeak by with a split-decision victory. 

Prediction: Menjivar has the advantage everywhere the fight goes, and should dominate throughout, earning his first UFC victory by unanimous decision.

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts

Fight Analysis: Two good newcomers in the 170lb division square off, as Patrick will hope his wrestling is good enough to stifle Roberts' jiu-jitsu.

Keys to Victory:

Patrick: Stay focused. It seems like a simple thing to do, but in the heat of the moment it's easy to slip up and get caught. Expect Patrick to take the fight down and work top control as much as possible. If Roberts leaves his head out there, he could end up being the seventh victim to Patrick's lethal guillotine choke.

Roberts: Just scrap, baby! The Cesar Gracie Fight Team member needs to use his jiu-jitsu game to keep Patrick working and eventually lock onto a limb and look to finish the fight.

Prediction: This is an extremely close fight and anything from a first-round stoppage or a split decision from either guy is possible. The pick is Roberts by split decision, but it could go either way.

Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald

Fight Analysis: MacDonald is one of the top prospects in the welterweight division and had Carlos Condit in serious trouble last June at UFC 115. Diaz is coming off a decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 125, his first loss since dropping to 170lbs.

Keys to Victory:

Diaz: Stay Standing. The Stockton native is almost unbeatable if he isn't held down and controlled. Diaz will look to use his boxing to land punches in bunches and fluster MacDonald. If MacDonald does take the fight to the ground, he'll have to worry about Diaz's tricky guard, as Diaz has one of the best triangle chokes in the sport.

MacDonald: Mix it up. MacDonald earned a lot of fans in his gutsy performance against Condit, where he dominated the former WEC champion for two rounds with effective striking and takedowns. If he can establish an advantage on the feet and keep Diaz guessing with takedowns, the fight should be his to lose.

Prediction: Diaz is impossible to finish, but I think MacDonald has a chance to be the next star in the welterweight division. I see him winning a split decision.

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson

Fight Analysis: Two great grapplers with very different strengths, this fight could be a show stealer. Henderson's wrestling and good top jiu-jitsu game should be fun to watch against Bocek's even better jiu-jitsu skills.

Keys to Victory:

Bocek: Get on the mat. Henderson's wrestling is good enough that he can force Bocek to stand and trade if he wants to—an advantage that Bocek lacks. If the Canadian can find a way to get it to the mat, he always has a chance to win via submission.

Henderson: Stay in control. Henderson's striking is always improving, but after suffering a loss in his last fight, expect him to go back to basic and use his wrestling. As long as he stays out of trouble, Henderson should win this fight.

Prediction: The problem is that Bocek creates problems for everyone on the ground. Most people thought Bocek should have won a controversial decision against top contender Jim Miller back at UFC 111, and now that he has a chance to jump back into the title mix I don't see him losing again. Bocek wins, second-round submission.

Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida

Fight Analysis: Two former light heavyweight champions battle to become relevant in the division again in an interesting clash of styles.

Keys to Victory:

Couture: Fight your fight, Randy. Couture is the king of game plans, but everyone knows what he'll look to do in this one. Couture will look to grab Machida, put him against the cage and use his trademark dirty boxing to win.

Machida: Fight your fight, Lyoto. Machida is the polar opposite of Couture, preferring to stay on the outside and move in to land strikes before getting back out of harm's way. Expect Machida to dance around the Octagon as he usually does and try to catch Couture with combinations.

Prediction: Machida will be able to stay away from Couture and hurt him multiple times on the feet, scoring several knockdowns and dominating. In the first round. Couture survives and roughs up Machida inside for the next two rounds. In the end, two judges score the bout 28-28 and we have the fourth draw at a major event this year.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Jason Brilz

Fight Analysis: A lot of people are complaining that this fight is on the main card of the event. Nevertheless, this might be the most truly even fight of the night. Two fighters who both have great wrestling, good jiu-jitsu and average striking should make this a war both on the feet and on the ground.

Keys to Victory:

Matyushenko: Gain top control and stay there. If Matyushenko can score the first takedown and keep Brilz on his back, he has a good chance of taking the fight on points. Brilz will constantly make him work, though, and he needs to be careful that he isn't submitted.

Brilz: Stuff the first takedown. If Brilz can make Matyushenko doubt his wrestling even a little, he can make this a fight to remember. A stand-up battle between the two would likely be a little sloppy, but the end result would please the fans.

Prediction: Matyushenko is more experienced and Brilz is coming off an almost year-long layoff, so the Janitor is the pick in the Fight of the Night.

Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick for UFC Featherweight Title

Fight Analysis: One of the top three fighters in the world defends his title against a striker who needs to finish the fight early to win.

Keys to Victory:

Aldo: Just keep doing what he's always done: dominate. Aldo can beat anyone on the feet. There will likely be a round of leg kicks and landed punches before he goes for the kill in the second.

Hominick: Honestly, Hominick needs to hope he can channel his inner Matt Serra and land a few punches inside to knock Aldo out quickly. He has the striking skills to hang with almost anybody in the division, but Aldo might be the exception.

Prediction: Aldo. Quickly. He will leave little doubt in the minds of the fans that he is one of the best in the world, and will give UFC fans a reason to want to watch the little guys.

Georges St-Pierre vs Jake Shields for UFC Welterweight Title

Fight Analysis: One of the best fighters in the history of the sport defends his title for the sixth time against a former Strikeforce champion that hasn't lost in six years. Wow.

Keys to Victory:

St-Pierre: Takedown defense. It seems silly to say that GSP has to worry about being taken down, but if Shields has any shot at winning, it's on the ground. St-Pierre will look to keep it standing and mix in the occasional takedown to keep Shields guessing.

Shields: Top control. If Shields can get GSP down and keep him there, he has a legitimate shot at winning this fight. He's been training with two of the top wrestlers in the sport, Chael Sonnen and Phil Davis, to prepare for the fight and will need all of the help he can get to try and upset the champion.

Prediction: I hate to go chalk for both title fights, but I'm going to act like picking a draw makes it forgivable. Expect St-Pierre to keep the fight on the feet and earn a (GASP) third-round stoppage win.