Ohio State Football 2011: Schedule Analysis and Predictions for the Buckeyes
Spring practice is in full swing in Columbus after the first of the Buckeyes' scrimmages Saturday.
The spring provides a great deal of optimism, as well as competition for the many starting jobs that are left vacant by graduations and suspensions.
And the 2011 season is just five short months away as Ohio State will try to make another run at a Big Ten championship.
Here is a game-by-game look at the OSU 2011 schedule, as well as predictions for the season.
1. September 3 vs. Akron
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For an Ohio State team that is losing a lot of experience, the one-win Akron Zips are a great prescription to the start of the season.
Rob Ianello's Zips finished 2010 with the third-worst scoring offense and were 106th in scoring defense, but they will return QB Patrick Nicely for his junior season.
Though the Buckeyes do have to find a new starting QB and replace holes all over the defense, the running game alone should pace the Bucks to a big blowout win in the home opener.
Interim coach Luke Fickell's first game could be a very easy one for Ohio State.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 38-7.
2. September 10 vs Toledo
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The 2011 Rockets do present a slightly better challenge than the Zips, but Ohio State should have a very decided advantage against a MAC team that they defeated in 2009 38-0 at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
In essence, this game could be another game for the offense to find a rhythm, but the defense could be tested slightly against Tim Beckman's Rocket offense.
Toledo brings back WR Eric Page, who has 1,000-yard seasons in each of his past two seasons, as well as both of their starting QBs, Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens.
Even despite the slightly-greater challenge, this game might end the same way most games against MAC teams do: Ohio State wins big.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 41-10.
3. September 17 at Miami (FL)
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The Buckeyes first true test of the season, especially with the Suspended Five out of the picture early on, comes against the Hurricanes and new coach Al Golden.
Jacory Harris returns for his senior season despite having major problems with turning the football over last season.
The Canes do lose quite a lot of talent, including WR Leonard Hankerson, DB Brandon Harris and DE Allen Bailey among others.
But playing on the road for the first time with an inexperienced QB starting presents some challenges that might be tough for Ohio State to overcome.
And if the Hurricanes can shut down the running game and force Ohio State to pass, it might be a long night for the Ohio State defense, no matter how good the defense is.
Prediction: Miami wins 21-17
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4. September 24 vs Colorado
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If Ohio State falls to Miami as predicted, new coach Jon Embree and the Buffaloes may be in for a long afternoon in Columbus.
One of the new members of the Pac-12, Colorado has some rebuilding to do after the Dan Hawkins era left the program very bare in the cupboard.
QB Tyler Hansen will most likely be the starter and has some solid weapons to throw the ball to in WRs Paul Richardson and Toney Clemons.
But there might not be much Colorado can do against an Ohio State team that will be very motivated should they lose at Miami the week before.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 31-10.
5. October 1 vs Michigan State
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The last game before Terrelle Pryor and company return could be the most meaningful game on the schedule at this point.
Michigan State had a big season by winning 11 games in 2010, and they are returning starting QB Kirk Cousins, both their top RBs, and WR D.J. Cunningham among others.
Although the defense has to account for some huge losses, especially that of LB Greg Jones, the offense will be the toughest OSU has faced up to this point in the season.
This matchup might be very high-scoring, especially since the offense by now will have been accustomed to playing with whoever starts at QB, and settling on which RB is playing the best at the time.
If neither team cracks the 30s, it would be quite a surprise.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 35-24.
6. October 8 at Nebraska
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For Big Ten fans, this is the game that is being circled on millions of calendars.
Not only is this the game the Suspended Five and coach Jim Tressel return to action, but this is the first Big Ten meeting between the flagship program of the conference, Ohio State, and Nebraska, the new kid on the block.
However, returning the five suspended players could be a chemistry problem, at least early on.
And going up against a Nebraska defense led by DT Jared Crick, LB Lavonte David and DB Alfonzo Dennard, they can't afford to make too many mistakes offensively.
The Buckeye defense will have to account for Nebraska's running attack, led by QB Taylor Martinez and RB Rex Burkhead, but don't be surprised to see blue-chip RB Aaron Green, a true freshman from San Antonio, getting some playing time in the game.
Conversely to the Michigan State game, if either team scores 30 points, it will be a surprise.
Prediction: Nebraska wins 20-17.
7. October 15 at Illinois
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The good news for Illinois is they found a good coach in Ron Zook, and they enjoyed a very strong 2010 season ending in a blowout win over Baylor in the Texas Bowl.
The bad news is that the Buckeyes might be coming to town after a loss, and they're not the type of team that anyone wants to face after a loss.
To make matters worse, the Illini lose three potential first and second rounders in the NFL draft in RB Mikel Leshoure, DT Corey Liuget and LB Martez Wilson.
However, the Illini have historically played Ohio State tough, including the 2007 upset win in Columbus and making Buckeye fans sweat a tough one in Champaign in 2010.
This one has the potential to be another scare, but if the Buckeyes are coming off a loss, the chances of a close game happening might be very slim.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 35-14.
8. October 29 vs Wisconsin
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In hindsight, this matchup has everything in Ohio State's favor: revenge game for an upset loss, possible night game, two weeks to prepare, and their opponents starting a new QB.
It's hard to find a good reason for Wisconsin to go into Ohio Stadium, especially if it's a night game, and being able to derail the Buckeyes once again as they did last year 31-18.
The Badgers lost both OT Gabe Carimi and DE J.J. Watt, both first-round talents on the lines.
And while they always reload up front, playing against an angry Ohio State team that has a lot of motivation is nothing anyone wants to see.
The ultimate difference in this match up from a year ago is that Wisconsin away from Camp Randall Stadium is not even close to the Badgers inside Camp Randall Stadium.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 38-17.
9. November 5 vs Indiana
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Former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson will have his hands full trying to replace big-time offensive threat Ben Chappell at QB and put the Hoosiers into annual bowl contention.
It doesn't help them this year having to make a return trip to Ohio Stadium after getting blown out 38-10 a year ago when Terrelle Pryor had his first 300-yard passing game.
The Hoosiers don't have much of a chance in this game, especially since the chemistry of the Buckeyes will be much improved from game-to-game with Pryor and Co. returning to the lineup in midseason.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 41-7.
10. November 12 at Purdue
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Although Ohio State dominated the Boilermakers last year 49-0, this year's contest could be a trap game considering their two biggest rivals follow this game.
If QB Robert Marve and RB Ralph Bolden are healthy for this game, they have the potential to give the Ohio State defense the type of fits it had two years ago when Purdue pulled off the 26-18 upset victory.
The defense will lose its heart and soul in DE Ryan Kerrigan, but Gerard Gooden is good enough to make the opposing offense have to worry about something in protection.
If the weather is very cold and windy, the closer the game will be, which might favor Purdue.
But considering Jim Tressel's stellar record in November, that experience should propel Ohio State to a tough, gritty victory.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 27-17.
11. November 19 vs Penn State
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Last season, Penn State came into Ohio Stadium and stunned the home crowd by taking a 14-3 halftime lead.
All that happened next was Ohio State scoring 35 unanswered points to stun the Nittany Lions, including two pick-sixes to win 38-14.
RB Evan Royster is gone from the Nittany Lions, but Silas Redd showed plenty of skill last season and should have little trouble replacing his production.
The battle at QB between Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin will be very interesting to see, as McGloin took control of the starting job after Bolden was inconsistent to start the year.
Penn State and Ohio State always play gritty, physical games that are very entertaining and have become quite an interesting match up to watch.
But Ohio State has just a little more skill, which should help them go 5-0 in their division in 2011.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 28-17.
12. November 26 at Michigan (The Game)
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If nothing else, Brady Hoke should have Michigan fans excited for football after three tough years under Rich Rodriguez.
The new Wolverines might not be elite right away, but AD Dave Brandon made a great hire in getting a guy who understands what it means to coach at Michigan, much like Brian Kelly at Notre Dame.
He knows what The Game means, and should have his guys fired up in a way that Rodriguez could not do in his tenure in Ann Arbor.
While the Wolverines may not be very good defensively, the offense led by QB Denard Robinson and WR Roy Roundtree should be good enough to keep them in many of their games.
But if Michigan's defense can't stop Ohio State's offense, the Buckeyes may make it eight straight against the school Buckeye fans call That School Up North.
The rivalry may be a long way from becoming a rivalry once again, but this game should still be very close and competitive.
Prediction: Ohio State wins 24-17.
Final Record: 10-2, 7-1 in conference, 5-0 in Leaders Division
For more college football news and information, visit The BCS Blitz and follow me on Twitter @bielik_tim.
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