Masters 2011: Rory or Not, Here We Go

Three rounds of the Masters are complete and Rory McIlroy has led after each one.

Going into Sunday, he has a good cushion.

If Rory plays well on Sunday, the tournament is his. But if not, there is a strong field of players sitting four, five and six shots back. 

There are about a dozen players with a shot at the Green Jacket tomorrow.

Here, I'll look at the pairings and see who will be hanging around on the back nine to challenge the young McIlroy. 

12. Matt Kuchar and Y.E. Yang

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 08: Matt Kuchar waves to the crowd on the second green during the second round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 8, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Matt Kuchar, minus-four; Y.E. Yang, minus-four

These two players are very alike: They are solid, quiet and respectful on the course, and have very consistent games.

At eight strokes back, it would be a minor miracle if either of them sneak into contention. I don't expect it to happen, but you never know. 

Chance of Contending: 20

Chance of Winning: Five

Score: 71, 73

11. The Field: Bo Van Pelt, Ross Fisher, Geoff Ogilvy

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Bo Van Pelt watches his tee shot on the 17th hole during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

Bo Van Pelt, minus-six; Ross Fisher, minus-five; Geoff Ogilvy, minus-five

These guys all have an outside chance if they can post a very good score before the leaders get to the final holes, but I just don't see it happening.

Just because I know how this game works, I am sure one of these guys will have a good round and finish in the top five.

Otherwise, I don't expect to hear much noise from them on Sunday. 

Chance of Contending: 20 (Each)

Chance of Winning: Five (Each)

Score: 71, 73, 77 (in no order)

10. Jason Day: The Young Australian

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Jason Day of Australia hits his approach shot on the fifth hole during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

Jason Day, minus-eight

This is Jason Day's first Masters Tournament, and the young Australian has played admirably.

Day has had the luxury of playing with Rory McIlroy all three days, but will paired with fellow countryman Adam Scott on Sunday.

Day has the ability to go low, but I just don't see it happening this time around. 

Chance of Contending: 30

Chance of Winning: 10

Score: 75

Finish: -3

9. Charl Schwartzel: Ernie's Boy

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Charl Schwartzel of South Africa watches his tee shot on the second hole during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty I

Charl Schwartzel, minus-eight

Charl Schwartzel has been mentored by Ernie Els, so it's no surprise that he is a great player.

But he hasn't been on this kind of a stage yet, so there's no way to know how he's going to handle the limelight.

My gut feeling is he plays decent, but not enough to get in contention. 

Chance of Contending: 30

Chance of Winning: 10

Score: 73

Finish: Minus-six

8. Phil Mickelson: A Long Shot

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Phil Mickelson chats with his caddie Jim Mackay on the second hole during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Phil Mickelson, minus-three

After winning his third Master title last year, Phil is back trying to sneak into elite company by earning his fourth Green Jacket.

He stands nine strokes back, and that is a lot of ground to make up.

I don't think there are any miracles in store for Phil this year, but I do see him having a good Sunday. 

Chance of Contending: 15

Chance of Winning: Five

Score: 69

Finish: Minus-six

7. Fred Couples: Senior Power

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Fred Couples (R) and Rickie Fowler walk off the second tee with their caddies during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty

Fred Couples, minus-five

Fred Couples has played great so far this week and I expect a steady Sunday from him, coming in at around par.

But if Freddy were to get into contention, it would make for an epic Sunday.

Doubtful, but can you just imagine...? 

Chance of Contending: 35

Chance of Winning: 10

Score: 71

Finish: Minus-six

6. Adam Scott

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 07: Adam Scott of Australia and Nick Watney (R) walk with their caddies on the first hole during the first round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 7, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Andrew Redi

Adam Scott, minus-seven

Adam Scott played very well on Saturday and gave himself a real chance at winning this tournament.

Does he have another low round in him on Sunday?

If he does, he also has to hope that Rory comes back to the field. Good tournament for Scott, but I don't think he gets his first major. 

Chance of Contending: 40

Chance of Winning: 15

Score: 72

Finish: Minus-seven

5. Luke Donald: Par-3 Champion

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Luke Donald of England (R) and caddie John McLaren line up a putt on the 17th green during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by David Cannon/

Luke Donald, minus-eight

No player has ever won the Par-3 Tournament on Wednesday, and come back to win the Masters, and no other player has ever worn Masters Green and Azalea Pink and won the tournament.

Despite what's going against him, I feel he may be the dark horse on Sunday.

Let's hope he has a wardrobe change. 

Chance of Contending: 45

Chance of Winning: 15

Score: 71

Finish: Minus-seven

4. Angel Cabrera: The Final Pairing

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Angel Cabrera of Argentina watches a putt on the 17th green during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

Angel Cabrera, minus-eight

Angel Cabrera snuck into the final group on Sunday, and I think that is the best thing that could have happened for the field in this one.

Cabrera has only two wins on the PGA Tour, but both of them came in a major.

If Angel plays well and gets excited early, then it might throw Rory of his game.

Chance of Contending: 45

Chance of Winning: 25

Score: 67 or 76

Finish: Minus-13 or minus-two

3. KJ Choi: The Fighter

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: K.J. Choi of South Korea celebrates a birdie putt on the ninth green during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

KJ Choi, minus-eight

KJ Choi was once a boxer, and has the body to prove it.

However, it is not KJ's body that is the driving force behind his game, but his steady nerves.

KJ is a player built for a major. Although I don't expect him to go low, if Rory slips up, KJ should be right in the mix with a solid round. 

Chance of Contending: 50

Chance of Winning: 25

Score: 69

Finish: Minus-11

2. Tiger Woods: If Only...

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Tiger Woods looks on during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Tiger Woods, minus-five

I know, it's crazy putting him here—especially after a mundane Saturday—but this is more of a hope than a prediction.

I think Tiger will have a good day. I hope he can have a great round and throw up a low score and give Rory something to think about on the back nine—if it does, then this will be big.

Very big. 

Chance of Contending: 25

Chance of Winning: 10

Score: 68

Finish: -10 

1. Rory McIlroy: The Kid

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AUGUSTA, GA - APRIL 09: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland hits his tee shot on the 18th hole during the third round of the 2011 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 9, 2011 in Augusta, Georgia. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)

Rory McIlroy, minus-12 

Tiger got his first Masters win at the age of 21 in breathtaking fashion. If Rory gets the win, then at 20, he could be anointed "the Next Big Thing."

But if a few people make some birdies early and Rory starts to feel the nerves, the strong field may catch up before we even get to the back nine. 

Chance of Contending: 85

Chance of Winning: 55

Score: 70

Finish: Minus-14