Chuck Liddell: Can he climb his Mount Everest?

A recent comment by a fellow B/R member caused me to ask myself, "What would have to happen for Chuck Liddell to get one more title shot?"

The future UFC hall-of-famer has remained adamant about wanting one more "hands-down stance" crack at the LHW belt. This seemed all but impossible after we watched Liddell lay lifeless via the punch felt 'round the MMA world.

But time has a way of healing all wounds. The wound to Liddell's chin will mend first. This should be followed by the bruise to his ego. And finally, the gash to his image will recover, and we will be reminiscing about the Iceman of old.

Fans and pundits will debate about how Liddell should adjust his game plan. Whether he should learn how to utilize the Muay Thai clinch better or conjure up the wrestler of old are legitimate and debatable points.

I would like to throw my thoughts from a different angle and look at the light heavyweight division to see who has to win, who has to lose, and who Chuck Liddell will have to conquer to get one last shot at gold & glory.

We haven't heard much from Chuck since his crushing loss. He is likely laying low and reinventing his jaw. Liddell has a sense of timing, or so we thought, and a sense of his place in MMA history.

The next move he makes, and the next fight he takes, will be the most important one of his career. His legendary status hangs in the balance, and if he is too unorthodox, it could be left lying on the blood-stained canvas of the octagon.

So in order to figure out how Liddell will climb his Mt. Everest we have to take a look at the current divisional landscape.

Here is what we know to be as fact (with some opinion mixed in):

Forrest Griffin will defend his title for the first time against Rashad Evans at UFC 92. Also at UFC 92 Rampage Jackson will be taking on Wanderlei Silva. The winner of this fight will most likely fight the winner of Griffin/Evans for the title, most likely between May and July of 2009.

Never before has one night been so important to one division.

Lyoto Machida will be fighting Thiago Silva at UFC 94. While many people think the Dragon deserves his title shot he will most likely have to keep waiting. The momentum coming out of UFC 92, for the winner of Rampage/Wanderlei, will be hard to stop.

Chuck Liddell will need another fight soon. It doesn’t look like he will be fighting at either UFC 92 or 93, so UFC 94 would be the perfect occasion, both from a marketing and timing perspective. With most of the top light heavyweights busy who will be available for the Iceman?

The winner of Keith Jardine/Brandon Vera or Sokoudjou/Cane seems to be logical choice; also they are the only Top 12 fighters who would be available. They all fight at UFC 89 and the winners will be looking for a step up in competition and ready to fight by then.

A rematch with Jardine may be the most attractive option. He is currently the highest ranked of the four UFC 89 fighters and currently the most marketable. Avenging a loss to The Dean of Mean would look good under Chuck's title-less belt.

Assuming Jardine wins. If Vera has his way he may bore us to a three round decision.

A fight with the Sokoudjou/Cane winner may be a little riskier stylistically and would be a less flashy win. A fight with upstart Tim Boetsch could be fun, but the same "less flashy" logic applies.

The farthest Chuck could drop, in terms of competition, would be James Irvin or Houston Alexander. Both men are tailor made for a Liddell knockout. The only problem is that they also have the ability to knock out Chuck just as bad or worse then Rashad did.

A loss to any of these men could spell the beginning of the end for Liddell. After that he will be fighting someone like Antonio Mendes or Reese Andy. Please say it aint so, Joe Silva.

So assuming Liddell wins this fight who will he fight next? It seems logical that he would fight one of the losers from Griffin/Evans or Jackson/Silva. The winners and losers of those fights could be important in determining who the UFC will want to market in Liddell's last stand.

So let's start with Griffin vs. Evans

The UFC could market a potential fight with Chuck vs. the loser regardless. However, everyone was expecting to see a Griffin/Liddell title fight. They wanted to see a Griffin/Liddell fight. These two men would stand and bang and Forrest would only take this fight to the ground if he was absorbing too much punishment. The fight would be a classic and, of the four men, Forrest is the only one he hasn't faced.

While the UFC could market Liddell/Evans 2, it's unlikely they would want that fight to happen so soon. And it’s the least marketable of the four possible fights. So Forrest losing the title could actually help Liddell get back in contention quicker. The UFC would immediately schedule this fight and a win by Chuck would have him right back in title contention.

Next, let's look at Rampage/Wanderlei 3

The UFC could easily market either as an opponent for Liddell. As a threesome, they have lots of history together. Silva would definitely take a rematch with Chuck and Liddell would love nothing more then to avenge his losses to Jackson.

A win over either would get him right back in the thick of things. It seems likely that the UFC would use Chuck as a landing spot for either fighter, no matter who lost.

It would probably be better for Chuck if Wanderlei lost. Wanderlei, based on history, is a better matchup for Chuck. So a fight against Silva would allow him to get back to a title fight easier, at least easier then him trying to figure out Rampage Jackson.

Chuck would only fight the loser of this Jackson/Silva if Forrest beats Rashad. If Evans wins, it's Liddell/Griffin.

Enter the Dragon

So the major wrinkle in Chuck's face lift is the man everyone wants to fade away: One Lyoto Machida.

Timing is another issue. Liddell needs two wins to get back in title contention. If Chuck fights at UFC 94 he won’t be able to fight one of the losers from UFC 92 until probably May or June.

However he might be fine. This is also around the same time the UFC 92 winners would be fighting for the title.

So what will Lyoto do in the meantime? Assuming he gets through Thiago, he will need another fight to bridge to a title fight. He will likely need to fight again around the same time as Liddell. So who could he fight? Either Rashad Evans, if he loses to Forrest, or Shogun Rua.

At that point the UFC will have to pick one fighter over another. Liddell or Machida, assuming they both win once their respective post UFC 94 fights.

The UFC would love to douse The Dragon's flame and put their aging poster boy in line to fight the winner of a theoretical rematch between Forrest Griffin and Rampage Jackson. But would they do that? More importantly, could they get away with that?

To recap

The most likely scenario for Chuck seems like a fight against one of the light heavyweight winners of UFC 89 (like Keith Jardine). If he gets through that fight he will get the one of the losers at UFC 92 (like Wanderlei Silva).

Would consecutive wins over Jardine and Silva be enough for the UFC to leapfrog him over Machida and leave the Dragon out of the title picture until 2010?

While looking this far ahead, with all these what-if’s seems extreme I have to imagine its exactly what Dana White and Joe Silva do to have a sense of how their business will shake out.

Only time will tell if the Iceman can climb his Mt. Everest or gets frozen out of one last title fight forever. If he can accomplish the first he will only add to the lore of his storied career.