2011 NFL Draft: Cincinnati Bengals Will Find Carson Palmer's Replacement
What exactly did you expect to happen during the offseason when the NFL is in the midst of a lockout? The media has begun to churn out stories.
In the peculiar case of Carson Palmer and the Cincinnati Bengals, these stories have caused conflicting reports to emerge.
Since Palmer demanded a trade out of Cincinnati in January, Bengals owner Mike Brown has stood firm on his stance: Palmer will either honor his contract and return to the Bengals for a ninth season or he will retire.
Despite Palmer placing his $2.1 million, five-bedroom, Indian Hill home on the market, and reports emerging that he told those close to him that he has $80 million saved and is prepared to retire should the organization not grant his demand, Brown hasn't budged.
Things got interesting earlier this week when Dan Marino suggested that the Miami Dolphins send a third-round pick to the Bengals in exchange for Palmer.
At first glance, Marino's suggestion seemed like nothing more than the Hall of Famer blowing a little smoke.
Indications are that Palmer would like to be traded somewhere near the West Coast, closer to his home in California.
Also, the thought of Brown relinquishing Palmer for just a third-rounder is laughable. In all likelihood, it would probably take something more like a first-round pick or multiple draft picks, similar to what the Washington Redskins gave up for Donovan McNabb last year, for Brown to give him up.
That is, assuming the Dolphins are in the market for a 31-year-old quarterback coming off a mediocre season. Not to mention, a deal couldn't take place until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached anyway.
However, it turned out Marino wasn't the only who thought trading for Palmer would be a good idea. Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald reported earlier this week that the Dolphins seemed open to the possibility.
Salguero went a little further, claiming that the Bengals were finally warming up to the idea of trading Palmer and actually getting value out of him rather than letting him retire.
Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com, however, shot down Salguero's claim. Hobson explains that Brown, who oversees every aspect of the organization, has a deep affection for Palmer as both a player and person.
Hobson believes it would take a pretty substantial deal for a team to land Palmer, if Brown is willing to give him up at all.
In a game of chicken, Brown is not one to blink. Brown is standing firm on the issue and, Hobson says, he should not be underestimated in situations such as these.
However, Brown does realize that the Bengals must begin to prepare for life without Palmer. The Bengals have kicked the tires of every premier signal-caller available in this year's draft, including Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Andy Dalton.
Think back to the 2008 draft when wide receiver Chad Ochocinco (then known as Chad Johnson) grew tired of the constant losing and began bashing the organization in an attempt to get out of town. Brown, as he is currently doing with Palmer, made it perfectly clear that he had no interest in trading him.
Still, the Bengals took out an insurance policy when they selected wide receivers Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell in the second and third rounds, respectively.
The Bengals' quarterback of the future figures to be somewhere within the first couple rounds of April's draft, no matter what comes of the situation with Palmer.
Odds are the Bengals will need whomever they choose to lead new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's unit to start and contribute right away.
Cincinnati will draft a quarterback. The only question is who it will be and in which round they will find him.
Let's take a look at the likely candidates and how each of them may fare in stripes next season.
Cam Newton, Auburn
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We'll begin with the most polarizing figure in this year's NFL Draft.
Like virtually every other team that holds a top-ten pick, the Bengals have been evaluating Cam Newton to determine if he is indeed their future franchise quarterback.
That is, if Newton is even available when the Bengals are on the clock. Many are projecting the Carolina Panthers to select him with the first overall pick. The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills, who hold the second and third picks, respectively, have shown interest as well.
The Bengals have made it no secret that they are shopping in the quarterback aisle this offseason. So what happens if Newton is still on the board when the Bengals hold the fourth pick in the draft?
Newton's sky-high ceiling and unlimited upside certainly makes him an enticing option for the Bengals.
Also, a player like Newton could provide energy and a much-needed morale boost to an otherwise lethargic Cincinnati fan base that needs a reason to believe again.
Though Carson Palmer is better than most quarterbacks in the league, his production has steadily declined since 2006. Perhaps a fresh face at the quarterback position, especially that of 2010 Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton, and a change of scenery for Palmer could be the best thing for all parties involved.
The NFL has never seen an athlete at the quarterback position quite like Newton. At 6'6" and nearly 250 pounds, he possesses the size that Mike Vick doesn't have. Carrying that massive frame makes the fact that he posted a 4.59 40-yard-dash time at the NFL Combine absolutely astonishing.
Newton has drawn comparisons to Vince Young when he was coming out of Texas, however, those should be put to rest immediately. Sure, Newton needs to improve his mechanics, but his throwing ability is much more polished than Young's.
With that being said, Newton's accuracy is still under the radar. Newton gathered mixed reviews from his performances at the Combine and Auburn's Pro Day, largely due to his inconsistency.
He throws a beautiful deep ball and has a great release, though he missed receivers badly on some out routes at the Combine.
Newton completed just 52 percent of his passes at the Combine, which meant he needed a flawless (or pretty close to it) Pro Day to convince scouts who are looking for a reason to take a chance on him in next month's draft to do so.
He completed 50 of 60 passes, which didn't do much to ease concerns about his accuracy. Keep in mind that Newton was in a comfortable setting, throwing to receivers he has built a good rapport with and had ample time to prepare and rehearse this performance.
Completing five out of every six passes isn't terrible, but it certainly wasn't the jaw-dropping 49-out-of-50 clinic that Sam Bradford delivered for scouts a year ago, prompting the St. Louis Rams to walk away from the workout with no doubts whatsoever.
There are also concerns about how Newton might mesh with the Bengals organization. Cincinnati is clearly in the midst of a rebuilding effort and does not have a strong support system in place for a rookie signal-caller, especially one with the unique abilities that Newton possesses.
Can the Bengals develop a game-plan that would cater to Newton's rare skills? Can Newton thrive in new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's West Coast attack after playing in a shotgun/spread attack at Auburn?
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
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Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert may be selected after Cam Newton in April's draft, but many believe that he will pan out to be the best quarterback in this year's draft class.
The Bengals will draft a signal-caller, but it remains to be seen if they will snag Newton or Gabbert with the fourth overall pick (if either of them are still available) or address another need and wait to see which quarterbacks fall to the second or third round.
Gabbert shot up all draft boards when stud Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck announced that he would return to school for his senior year. However, many critics were skeptical of Gabbert's sudden and rapid rise after Luck announced his decision.
Turns out, it could be for good reason.
Though ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay calls him the most complete quarterback prospect in this draft, he points out one major flaw in Gabbert's game: he completed just 38 percent of throws longer than 15 yards in conference games, a very concerning statistic.
McShay also describes Gabbert's pocket presence as "inconsistent," adding "he's not [Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt] Ryan or [St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam] Bradford."
The latest rumblings around the NFL indicate that the Carolina Panthers are high on Newton and will likely select him first overall.
If the Buffalo Bills, who hold the third pick and figure to be in the market for a quarterback, decide to pass on Gabbert, it would be very interesting to be a fly on the wall in the Cincinnati's draft room.
Do the Bengals feel strongly enough about Gabbert to make him their quarterback of the future? If they believe there isn't much of a drop-off between Gabbert and throwers who may be available in the second round, it would make more sense for them to draft a quality player at a different position, such as Georgia receiver A.J. Green, widely considered the best receiver prospect in the entire draft, with the fourth overall pick and get their quarterback in the next round.
Jake Locker, Washington
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Washington quarterback Jake Locker was last year's version of heralded Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck: a no-brainer, consensus first-overall pick thought to be the future of a franchise who ultimately elected to forgo the NFL and return to school for his senior season.
It has worked for some signal-callers such as Peyton Manning and Sam Bradford. It hasn't worked so well for others, such as Brian Brohm, Matt Leinart and, apparently, Locker.
With all eyes focused on Locker at the Senior Bowl, Combine and Washington's Senior Day and how he would perform after a less-than-stellar senior season, he appeared consistently...well, inconsistent.
The Bengals got a great look at Locker in January's Under Armour Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., when the club coached the North squad.
Locker continually missed receivers and didn't appear to make the throws scouts wanted to see him make. While under pressure, he seemed to panic and was inaccurate.
Locker's ball security skills during his time at Washington has probably been evaluated over the past few months as well, after he lost a couple of fumbles during practices the week before the Senior Bowl.
However, Locker does possess rare athleticism at the quarterback position, which can be rivaled only by Cam Newton in this draft class. Locker flashed his speed at the Combine, posting an impressive 4.5 40-yard-dash.
Projections regarding Locker's draft stock are all over the map. Currently, he is believed to be teetering between the first and second rounds.
However, one thing is for certain: the fourth overall pick, which the Bengals hold, is too high for Locker.
It is a possibility that he may be available when the Bengals select in the second round with the 35th overall pick, but it is not a certainty.
The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are both reported to have interest in Locker's services.
If the Bengals want Locker, they may have to trade back into the first round to get him, which is a very unlikely scenario.
Cincinnati needs help all over the place and will likely hold on to all eight of its picks. Head coach Marvin Lewis has recently stated that he would like production, in some fashion, from all eight of them.
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Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
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There seems to be no middle ground regarding Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett among scouts and fans alike: you either love him or hate him.
By many, Mallett is considered the Randy Moss of this year's draft class: a physical freak who possesses elite first-round tools, but will be taken much later than he probably should because of lingering character issues.
Mallett's uncanny arm strength and accuracy are each a thing of beauty that general managers see only once every several years.
When throwing the ball at the Combine, Mallett was far and away the most impressive quarterback there. When he took the podium, however, that was a different story.
When taking questions, Mallett seemed indifferent, as if he were doing teams a favor by his mere presence. He came off as overly defensive and easily angered when asked about sensitive topics.
When asked to comment on allegations of drug usage, which emerged just days before the Combine, Mallett refused to address (or deny) the issue.
Other concerns with Mallett include an infamous tale that began circulating around the University of Arkansas involving Mallett and a scantron (or lack thereof) that eventually went viral and a perceived sense of cockiness and/or entitlement that bothers some scouts.
However, even the most casual of NFL fans will tell you that character concerns hold no bearing when it comes to the Cincinnati Bengals, especially in the second round. The Bengals selected linebacker Rey Maualuga and defensive end Carlos Dunlap in the second round of the 2009 and 2010 drafts, respectively.
Mallett, who was the first quarterback to visit Cincinnati when the Bengals opened up Paul Brown Stadium for team visits, is a possibility for the Bengals in the second round.
After transferring to Arkansas from the University of Michigan when Rich Rodriguez arrived and implemented his spread offense, Mallett was 18-7 as a starter during his tenure with the Razorbacks.
Throwing for 7,943 yards and 62 touchdowns compared to just 19 interceptions, Mallett made a name for himself with his passing ability, ideal NFL size and outstanding physical tools. His 158.1 career passing efficiency is third best in SEC history.
So, character issues aside, what is not to like about Mallett? He appears to crumble under pressure.
Many still recall meltdowns from Mallett in a couple of key situations in 2010. Against Alabama and most notably on a possible game-winning drive in the Sugar Bowl against Ohio State, Mallett made poor decisions and threw late, costly interceptions.
Nonetheless, Mallett claims that his time spent with the Bengals went well, adding that he believed he impressed some of the coaches.
Also, Mallett pointed out that Bobby Petrino's offense at Arkansas contained many aspects of the West Coast scheme that new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden plans to install.
It's likely that Mallett will still be on the board when the Bengals select in the second round with the 35th overall pick.
Should Cincinnati not draft a quarterback fourth overall, it will be interesting to see if they will opt for Mallett or one of the other quarterbacks who will be available at that point.
Come Day 2 of the NFL Draft, we will find out if the Bengals feel Mallet's visit to Cincinnati went as well as he thought it did.
Andy Dalton, TCU
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ESPN draftniks Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay don't agree on much these days, but both have similar views regarding the Bengals' draft needs.
Both Kiper and McShay have the Bengals selecting Georgia receiver A.J. Green with the fourth overall pick in their latest three-round mock drafts.
Both also have the Bengals taking Texas Christian quarterback Andy Dalton in the second (Kiper and McShay both have the Bengals drafting a running back in the third, Kiper likes Ryan Williams of Virginia Tech and McShay says Kendall Hunter of Oklahoma State).
Dalton is a prospect who is climbing up the draft boards.
Dalton, who many teams are believed to be targeting in the second round, had an outstanding Pro Day, completing 49-out-of-52 passes with two drops.
Dalton's accuracy could make him a good fit in new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's West Coast attack, but he lacks an ideal NFL frame.
Standing just 6'2", Dalton has had some balls batted down at the line of scrimmage. Also, he does not have outstanding mobility in the pocket.
However, since Dalton showcased his accuracy at Texas Christian's Pro Day, his stock has been on the rise.
Combine that with his knowledge of the game, experience as a starter with a proven track record at the college level, and good decision-making, and Dalton could make sense for the Bengals at the 35th overall pick.
Christian Ponder, Florida State
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Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder's draft stock has been on the upswing since January's Under Armour Senior Bowl.
Not only did Ponder's confidence seem to sky-rocket during Senior Bowl week; his accuracy, timing and poise were all noticeable as well.
In the Senior Bowl, Ponder seemed comfortable in the pocket and appeared to see the field well. Though no quarterback was overly impressive, Ponder clearly had the best day of all six signal-callers in the game. He finished the game 7-13 for 132 yards and two touchdowns and was named MVP.
Ponder continued to gain momentum with a solid showing at the Combine. It's unlikely he will be taken in the first round, but Ponder has solidified himself as a early second-day prospect in April's draft.
At 6'2", Ponder has less-than-ideal size for an NFL quarterback, but has quick, excellent feet in the pocket and great mobility.
Ponder will soon be visiting the Bengals and is presumed to be on the their radar. Accurate and mobile in the pocket, Ponder is a West Coast quarterback prospect and could be an ideal fit in new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's scheme.
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