Masters 2011: What Tiger Woods Has to Do to Win

If you had cornered a PGA Tour pro last January and told him that by early April Tiger Woods would have only one eagle during competition, you would have been laughed off the practice range.

Yet it’s true, and that more than anything suggests why Tiger Woods has fallen below his standards and ours.

Here he is at Augusta, and three of the four par-5s should be gimmes for him. The eighth hole, about 560 yards uphill with a sharp turn at the green, is a beast. But Nos. 2, 13 and 15 should be not much more than a good drive and a low- to mid-iron approach to reach in two.

In 2009, when his average score was nearly 68.05 (four strokes under the standard par of 72), he dominated on the par-5s. 56 percent of the time in ’09 he scored birdie or better on these holes. Right now he’s at 37.5 and that’s with only one eagle.

And that stat tells us many things about what Tiger Woods has to do to win his fifth Masters title.

Avoiding the Big Miss

The “high right” fade has been his downfall of late, and even new teacher Sean Foley has not been all that successful in correcting the downward move that gets Tiger “stuck” as his clubhead approaches impact.

Stuck, in this case, means his arms are way behind his body as the swing arcs through impact, forcing him to fire his hands much faster. The result is rarely a good shot and usually ends up as a snap to the left or a deep block right. Either result can put him in Bambi’s den.

Poor driving statistics don’t hurt the most on the par-5s, but they do reduce one’s chances for eagle. In 2009, Woods hit the fairway 64 percent of the time; this year it’s been 42 percent. That right there accounts for his 70.65 scoring average, about 2.6 strokes per round over his ’09 standard. In over four days, that’s 10 shots. Put another way, instead of first place it’s about 10^th or worse.

Proper Position

When he’s on, Tiger might be the best at shaping approach shots to get at even the most treacherous pins. The low draws, the high fades—that’s what he lives for. Note last year’s 40-yard controlled hook to get to the ninth hole. No one else pulls off that shot—even Mickelson the Magician.

Tiger’s iron play will be the key. Good iron shots produce good chances for birdies, which, if converted, build confidence. And that’s what so surprising to see the 2011 Tiger, he’s lacking confidence. So far this year his final-round scoring is 71, compared to 68.4 in ’09. That’s not the Tiger we know.

That confidence will show in the iron game. “The greens are so large,” said two-time Master’s champion Tom Watson during his chat at The Golf Channel. “But the targets are so small.”

Alistair MacKenzie’s design has been altered more than any course in America, yet one thing remains constant about Augusta National: The large, canted greens create the threat of disaster.

“You can hit good shots and still end up putting defensively,” Watson continued. “It’s a good round if you set yourself up to have five or six good, aggressive runs at birdie.”

Woods added that a good putting performance is essential. “I need good putting. Not just for 18 holes, or one nine-hole streak. I need good putting all week,” he said during his appearance before the Masters press on Tuesday.

His putting in 2011 hasn’t been that bad. He’s averaging 29.17 so far, up a little from the 28.44 in ’09.

Knowledge

Tiger is credited with having an amazing short game. And few if any in the field have his ability to hit the nipped wedge shots from off the greens, necessary due to the slopes and the speed of the putting surfaces. Backspin is the only way players can control the ball’s pace as it heads towards the hole.

Mickelson is nearly as good as Tiger, but Phil also hasn’t putted as well as Tiger in major championships. In Tiger’s case at Augusta, his saves have come from largely knowing where to miss on the approach shots. Mickelson proved it last year when errant drives during the final round on Nos. 10 and 11 left him in position to save par on both, critical in his winning the Green Jacket.

Calm, Please

A large storm blew through Augusta on Tuesday, but the weather for the rest of the week calls for temperatures in the 80s with a threat of isolated thunderstorm. That means the course will play firm and fast. That favors Tiger, who—when on—can shape any shot off the tee or towards the green.

“But no course is as hard to figure out the wind as Augusta National,” Watson said. And it’s true, the winds swirl. On one hole it is in the player’s face, so they figure on another hole that same wind helps the shot. “And sometimes the ball will just come back right at you. I need a meteorologist to figure it out,” Watson said.

That said, Tiger’s high ball flight can be affected by the wind. The last two British Opens, at Turnberry and St. Andrews, were played in high winds and Tiger didn’t contend.

Therefore

A good-but-not-great tee game is all Tiger needs. He just has to avoid those shots that end up deep in the woods. In turn, more fairways will mean more greens in regulation, and that will make him comfortable.

Comfort, it follows, will lead to confidence, giving him the will to hit shots that fit the hole, even in the riskiest situations. And could reincarnate the beast that has dominated pro golf the last 10 years.

That’s how Tiger’s going to win.