College Football Week 6 Predictions

Week 6 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

September 29, 2008

Each Monday morning, we will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankingsand links to the pre-season preview are located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. Non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Games of the Week

No. 14 Ohio State 23 @ No. 19 Wisconsin 25

This is not only a game between two top 20 teams in our Power Rankings, it is our closest game of the week as well—and it really just boils down to homefield advantage.

The sting was taken out of this game a little after Wisconsin's deflating loss at Michigan (winning 19-0 with just over 20 minutes left to play), but the Big Ten champion could easily go to the victor of this game.

Both defenses are great, especially at forcing turnovers and stopping the pass, so expect the winning team to be the one that best establishes the running game and likely gets a big play on special teams.

The sim likes the depth of the Wisconsin backfield over a still-recovering Beanie Wells and return man David Gilreath over Ray Small and the rest of the Buckeyes' return units.

The Badgers win at home just 52.7 percent of the time and by an average score of 25-23 to set up an even bigger game in Madison the next week when No. 3 Penn State comes to town.

No. 26 Oregon 22 @  No. 12 USC 33

Oregon State provided the blueprint to beating the Trojans with its hard-nosed, between-the-tackles running and aggressive pressure from the defensive front four.

Look for more of the same when Oregon and its powerful rushing attack and mammoth defensive line go to USC. This time, however, the Trojans will be ready. USC should rip the slow-developing play-action passes and gimmick plays from the playbook and just go right after the Ducks with their superior athletes on both sides of the ball. Oregon is good, but the talent level is greater for USC. The Trojans win 76.1 percent of the time in a shootout with an average score of 33-22.

No. 20 Kentucky 7 @  No. 2 Alabama 28

Don't sleep on Kentucky; the team is No. 20 in our Power Rankings for a reason. The Wildcats have an experienced and athletic defense that is giving up less than six points a game on the season.

And while Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee State and Norfolk State are not known for prolific offenses, UK shutout a Louisville offense that should be able to put up points. That's not going to be the problem for Kentucky.

The problem is that they have a hard time moving the ball and are going to be facing one of the best defensive teams in the country in Alabama. The Crimson Tide just shut down the No. 3 team in the nation and should have no issue doing the same with Kentucky.

Because of both of the defenses, the score of this game could end up looking a lot closer than it really is. In fact, Kentucky could definitely still be in the game in the fourth quarter. Games like this are going to happen every week in SEC—usually multiple times each week—and the Crimson Tide will have to be able to get up for them if they want a legit chance at a national title. Alabama is clearly the superior team though, as it wins at home 95 percent of the time and by an average score of 28-7.

Week 6 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Western Kentucky @ Virginia Tech	95	7-35
Pittsburgh @ South Florida	95	9-36
Rutgers @ W. Virginia	95	12-33
Texas A&M @ Oklahoma State	95	13-40
Army @ Tulane	95	7-29
Rice @ Tulsa	95	27-38
San Diego State @ TCU	95	6-34
Washington @ Arizona	95	6-34
Kentucky @ Alabama	95	7-28
Hawaii @ Fresno State	95	13-40
Louisiana Tech @ Boise State	95	7-37
Oregon State @ Utah	94.5	14-30
S. Carolina @ Mississippi	90	13-29
Ohio @ W. Michigan	87.6	16-30
UTEP @ S. Miss	86.6	16-32
Indiana @ Minn.	85.6	20-35
Duke @ GA Tech	84.1	12-27
Arizona St. @ California	83.1	21-31
E. Michigan @ Bowling Green	82.6	11-22
Temple @ Miami (OH)	81.1	9-20
Stanford @ Notre Dame	80.1	17-28
Washington St. @ UCLA	80.1	12-24
Oregon @ USC	76.1	22-33
Illinois @ Michigan	75.6	15-25
Northern Illinois @ Tennessee	74.6	17-27
SMU @ UCF	70.6	15-21
Florida Atlantic @ Mid Tenn	68.7	17-24
Wyoming @ New Mexico	67.7	12-20
Iowa @ Michigan State	57.2	22-25
Ohio State @ Wisconsin	52.7	23-25
Auburn @ Vanderbilt	48.8	15-12
UNLV @ Colorado St.	46.3	25-20
Connecticut @ North Carolina	40.3	26-20
Memphis @ UAB	39.3	29-23
Akron @ Kent St.	37.8	29-21
Fla. Int. @ North Texas	36.8	32-24
Navy @ Air Force	27.9	34-24
Florida State @ Miami (FL)	26.4	24-14
LA-Laf @ LA-Monroe	26.4	30-19
Cincinnati @ Marshall	21.4	31-18
Kansas @ Iowa State	20.4	30-17
Texas Tech @ Kansas State	10.4	33-26
Missouri @ Nebraska	7.5	38-27
Ball State @ Toledo	6	40-16
Boston College @ NC St.	5	30-8
Maryland @ Virginia	5	38-7
Penn State @ Purdue	5	38-10
Oklahoma @ Baylor	5	32-14
Texas @ Colorado	5	34-10
Florida @ Arkansas	5	34-10
Brigham Young @ Utah State	5	39-9
Nevada @ Idaho	5	39-13

 

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