The Florida Derby Is Arguably the Deepest Field of Any Kentucky Derby Prep Race

The 60th running of the Florida Derby on Sunday afternoon will either legitimize potential Kentucky Derby contenders or make pretenders out of some.

The One Million Dollar, 1 1/8 mile grade 1 stakes race at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, has arguably the deepest field of any Kentucky Derby prep race.

Soldat is the current 9-5 favorite. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Soldat will be looking to duplicate his last two recent performances at Gulfstream. In wire-to-wire fashion, Soldat has won two in row at Gulfstream Park.

On a sloppy track in January, he was challenged in the middle of the final turn and then pulled away to win by nine lengths. In The Fountain of Youth Stakes in late February, with stiffer completion and on a fast and dry track, Soldat once again led wire-to-wire. He was again challenged during the middle of the last turn and again pulled away to win by two lengths.

Soldat has arguably outrun his pedigree. The son of War Front has proven that although pops was a sprinter who won races ranging in distances from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, he can handle the extra distance and stretch it out if forced to do so.

His mother was an unraced horse by the name of Le Relais, but she is also half-sisters to sprinters Silvery Bay and Mulrainy.

On Thursday, the race dynamics changed when Flashpoint was entered into the equation. Originally scheduled to run in the Swale (GR II) on the same card, Flashpoint is seen as the early speed in the race.

Rick Dutrow Jr., who trains Flashpoint, also trained Big Brown, the last Florida Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown also went on to win the Preakness but finished last in the Belmont Stakes as Da Tara, the longest shot on the board (38-1), won the race. Ironically, Soldat’s jockey, Alan Garcia, rode Da Tara that day.

It will be an interesting and entertaining first half mile. Flashpoint will most assuredly force Soldat to be quicker than the 24.1-quarter and 47 4/5 half mile he ran during the F.O.Y Stakes.

In fact, many believe that Garcia may have to be three to five lengths quicker over the first half in order to be in position to win the race. The horse most likely to benefit if Soldat decides to run with Flashpoint is Dialed In.

Trained by Hall of Famer Nick Zito, Dialed In is perhaps the best closing horse in the all of the Kentucky Derby prep races. The second choice on the board this morning is the horse that stands to benefit the most from Flashpoints late entry and early speed in the race.

Currently at 6-5 odds, Dialed In possesses a major winning bloodline. Sired by the 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, Dialed In’s family tree can be traced through AP Indy, Horse of the Year in 1992 and the 1977 Triple Crown winner, Seattle Slew.

Do not be fooled by Dialed In’s loss in a 1-1/8-mile allowance race against older horses back on March 3rd.

Nick Zito in an interview with Ed Gray of Gulfstream Park said the following about the early March race. “It was no easy race. He ran against 4-year-olds, and if you look at it, it’s hard for 3-year-olds to beat 4-year-olds this time of year,” Zito said. “The main thing is… he went the last eighth in the race in 12-and-change at a mile and an eighth. What’s the odds he won’t do well if he goes 12-and-change in the Florida Derby? None.”

In the Holy Bull Stakes back in January, Dialed In came from last to first and pulled away for the win. The first quarter mile was run at a hot 23.4 and equaled by a 46.5 half mile, so what Flashpoint and Soldat do in terms of getting out early on Sunday at Gulfstream may not matter to the promising three-year-old.

To Honor and Serve began the year, as the horse many experts thought was Kentucky Derby’s favorite Uncle Mo’s biggest challenger.

Running in the F.O.Y stakes race in February TH&S finished third and was no match for Soldat. Trained by a Hall of Fame Trainer Bill Mott, TH&S began his career with a second place finish in a seven-furlong race last September at Aqueduct.

He then reeled off three straight wins including a wire-to-wire win in the Grade II Remsen at Aqueduct. Following the victory, Mott rested his horse giving him a lighter training schedule in preparation for the Kentucky Derby schedule that was ahead.  

This as Mott explains is the reason for the Fountain of Youth showing that caused many to back away from the horse.

“If the Fountain of Youth was our main objective, if that's what we had in mind as the final race for this horse's career or something, we would've never taken him out of training,” Mott told a Gulfstream Park writer “We would've kept him in training and probably have a prep race in him before the Fountain of Youth. But we wanted to give him a little time.”

To Honor and Serve was sired by three-year-old champion and 2006 Preakness winner, Bernardini.

Bernardini also shares AP Indy as his sire and, of course, that would mean Seattle Slew as well. The pedigree is there for this horse to improve from his last showing and he could rebound in a big way.

Jockey Garrett Gomez will be aboard TH&S for the first time, as his regular rider, John Velazquez committed to early Kentucky Derby favorite and two-year-old champion Uncle Mo for the opening leg of the Triple Crown.

Flashpoint is not the only horse in the field with early speed, Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford could be running up front early, further complicating the issue for the favorites in the latter stages of the race.

It is highly doubtful that any of the three will be there at the end. However, upsets have been known to occur in Derby prep races. If any of the three 20-1 long-shots can pull the upset or factor in the exacta or triple, it may be Arch Traveler.

Shackle Ford did run against Soldat in the F.O.Y but like To Honor and Serve was no factor and finished fifth.

Arch Traveler made big strides on the same card as Soldat back on Feb. 26. He won in his first attempt around two turns against a solid field of 3-year-olds in an allowance race prior to the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream.

If you are looking for a horse that could steal this race or finish second then you may want to consider the 8-1 Todd Pletcher trained, Stay Thirsty.

Stay Thirsty is also sired by Bernardini making this year’s Gotham Stakes winner the half brother of To Honor and Serve.

Besides pedigree, Stay Thirsty also has plenty of talent. He is one of the four horses that won their time out and is the stable mate of current Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo.

He came from fourth place early in the Gotham Stakes and is now sporting blinkers. This could help him stay a little sharper earlier in the race and while he is not expected to track the early speed, he could remain close enough to pass the field down the stretch.

His last race, the pedigree and all of the early speed says 8-1 could be worth the chance on Sunday.

One thing is for sure, regardless of the hype that surrounds Uncle Mo heading into this year’s run for the Roses, Sundays race has a good chance of producing the 22nd Kentucky Derby winner from The Florida Derby and first since 2008 when Big Brown won two thirds of the Triple Crown races back in 08.

My selections:

1. Dialed In—Zito's horse could close this out nicely (6-5).
2. Soldat—Worried he may get into early duel (3-2).
3. Stay Thirsty—Stable mate to Uncle Mo could steal the show (8-1)
4. To Honor and Serve—May not have what it takes (4-1).
5. Flashpoint—Dutrow knows what he is doing, preparation equals opportunity (6-1).