Fantasy Football: Week Five Preview, Part One

It's amazing how injuries play a part in football more than any other sport. Sure, there are issues in baseball when you try to decide who to play, but generally, those decisions are easier to understand because of the disabled list process.

Football becomes an exercise in mental gymnastics. You have to guess what coaches are thinking and attempt to interpret practice notes that often make no sense at all. I mean, if you were burned by Carson Palmer last week, you aren't alone. That's sort of where we are today.

We're going to go over the early games, but we have to stress that this information is only as accurate as the reports we can find on team sites and gather from Internet sources (as well as a carefully placed mole or two).

Let's get to it.

Seattle at New York Giants

Who to Start: John Carlson, Matt Hasselbeck, Julius Jones, Eli Manning

Who to Sit: Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Plaxico Burress (suspended)

What to Expect: Seattle is actually going to get some receivers back this week! Branch and Engram are both expected to play, and that can only help Seattle's offense. So why do we say to start Hasselbeck, but bench his two primary targets?

It comes down to a matter of these guys getting back into the flow. They're going to be targeted, and Branch could find the end zone, but I'm not an advocate of starting guys right after a few weeks out of action, in the same way we've talked about this with pitchers.

Branch and Engram both probably come in around 50-70 yards. John Carlson will likely still see a lot of balls his way, and he comes in around 60 yards and a touchdown. Look for Hasselbeck to throw for 220 and two touchdowns.

Julius Jones is the strength of this team, and he will be over 100 yards with a touchdown. Jones has proven he can handle the load, even in circumstances where the defense knows Seattle has to run the ball.

Manning will be without Burress this week, but he should still be able to use Steve Smith for 80 yards and a touchdown. The day will be tougher for Amani Toomer, who will likely be opposite Marcus Trufant all day.

While Trufant hasn't recorded an interception, he also hasn't been beaten this year. Manning should still be able to throw against this secondary, but will be reliant on second and third (so really third and fourth) options.

I like Hixon and Smith to both find the end zone. Smith will do it on 80 yards, Hixon on 50. Toomer will still get his, but it will be tough to get into the end zone against Trufant. Toomer still puts up 70 yards. Brandon Jacobs will be the horse he is, and there should be no problems in using him.

Sleeper Pickup: Steve Smith. With Burress out, he'll need to shine. I mean it this time.

Washington at Philadelphia

Who to Start: Jason Campbell, Reggie Brown, Correll Buckhalter (if no Westbrook), Antwaan Randle El

Who to Sit: Hank Baskett, Greg Lewis, both Defenses
 
What to Expect: The Eagles are one of the top-five toughest defenses to run on, so the game will need to be played in the air for the Redskins to win.

Campbell should be expected to throw for 250 yards in this one, with two touchdown passes. He'll likely add a pick, because he seems to make that kind of throw once a game.

The Eagles' defense can be thrown on, and Moss should be the biggest beneficiary. He finds the end zone and should almost always be played, regardless. Randle El makes a return to our starting lineup this week because of the lack of a second solid corner. He'll put up 90 and a touchdown as well. Chris Cooley isn't the best option, but you aren't likely going to find better ones right now.

Clinton Portis could struggle, as Philly is strong against the run. They allow just 54 yards per game on the ground. Portis won't get much above that. He'll go for around 60, but be held scoreless.

McNabb can certainly throw on Washington. The Redskins are allowing 225 yards per game, and McNabb is a better-than-average quarterback. I like him for 275 and three scores if Westbrook is in the game—two if not.

Reggie Brown gets them both to go with 65 yards. DeSean Jackson should still be played and will probably get the most yardage. I'm looking at 125 for him.

The wild card is Westbrook.

He was a last-minute decision last week and has been participating in practice this week. He'll combine for 100 yards and a touchdown if he's in. If not, Buckhalter will still get some action on the ground, going for about 65 yards total, but don't look for him to score.
 
Sleeper Pickup: L.J. Smith has been healthy for the Eagles in practice this week, and the Redskins were awful in defending Jason Witten.

San Diego at Miami

Who to Start: Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Ronnie Brown, Anthony Fasano, Greg Camarillo (deep leagues - 12 or more teams), even Ricky Williams and Chad Pennington won't hurt you
 
Who to Sit: Ted Ginn, Darren Sproles
 
What to Expect: The Miami secondary isn't very good, but San Diego's defense hasn't been very good either. Offensively, this is a game that should produce some points.

Rivers is going to be good for three touchdowns, spreading the love to Chambers, Jackson, and Tomlinson. Gates is a solid starter, but I don't think he'll end up in the end zone.

Miami's linebackers are stronger than their corners and safeties. Gates won't be able to work the middle of the field as effectively in this case. Jackson should end up with around 65 yards. Chambers should go for 105 and Gates for 70.

Tomlinson should find some easy work through the air. The Dolphins can stuff out the ground game, but they won't be able to limit Tomlinson strictly because of how he's used. He may be held under 100 yards on the ground, but will make up for it with another 60 through the air and two touchdowns.

Chad Pennington isn't going to hurt you this week. He probably ends up around 230 yards with a couple touchdowns and an interception. It won't win you a league, but there are worse bye-week fill-ins if you need the body.

Greg Camarillo will be the only wide receiver with a touchdown, and he'll pull in 85 yards. Anthony Fasano gets 45 yards and the other score. Ginn is on the sit list more because he won't find the end zone; he could still account for 75 yards.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will both find the end zone in one way or another. The two should be able to combine for 135 yards rushing, another 70 through the air, and two touchdowns (one for each).
 
Sleeper Pickup: Greg Camarillo. He's emerged as Pennington's favorite target outside of Fasano. You could definitely do worse here.

Kansas City at Carolina

Who to Start: Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Jonathan Stewart, Larry Johnson
 
Who to Sit: DeAngelo Williams, Damon Huard
 
What to Expect: So the question is what you believe. Do you believe that the Denver defense is that bad, or that the Chiefs remembered how to run the ball? I think the truth is somewhere in between.

Larry Johnson is the best offensive weapon for Kansas City, and he likely cracks 100 yards against Kansas City, simply because it will be big for them to control the clock. He'll find the end zone as well. I just don't like much else about Kansas City in this game. If you have options for guys like Dwayne Bowe, I'd use them.

Yes, Huard is a better quarterback than Thigpen or Croyle, but this doesn't seem like the right fit. Not when the goal will be to keep Carolina off the field. Tony Gonzalez will be the best bet through the air.

With Carolina, Jonathan Stewart continues to be my favorite back. He got the score last week, even though the yards were split. Stewart should find the end zone this week as well, with around 90 yards. Williams should get yardage, but won't be doing the scoring.

Jake Delhomme may not be as solid as Cutler in some respects, but his weapons are just as good. Delhomme goes off for 260 yards and two touchdowns. One to Smith, one to Muhammad. Smith will crack 100 yards, and Muhammad should be around 70 or so.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Rosario. He's going to get more attention at some point. This week seems like the ample opportunity to look to him for that.

Tennessee at Baltimore

Who to Start: Both Defenses, Le'Ron McClain
 
Who to Sit: Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins, Justin Gage, Derrick Mason, Willis McGahee, Bo Scaife
 
What to Expect: Expecting defense might be the best thing here. The Ravens allow just under 70 yards per game on the ground, while the Titans give up 88. Both are in the top-10 in that category. The Titans give up 175 yards a game through the air, the Ravens give up 120. Again, both are in the top-10 in those categories.

I'm not convinced McGahee is going to play, nor do I think that if he does play that he'll be able to complete the game. McClain has been the most effective back on the Baltimore roster, likely because he's been the most healthy.

He should be a decent play in that regard, and should be able to find the end zone to go with 70 yards. Reduce that to 40 if McGahee is available.

I like nothing about the Baltimore or Tennessee passing games this week. Nothing.

The Titans should be able to run the ball as well as they have. Both Johnson and White should find the end zone. Johnson will still be the yardage guy, totaling 85 with a score. White could get two scores, but top out at 40 yards.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Really, do you want to play around in this game?

Indianapolis at Houston

Who to Start: Anthony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton
 
Who to Sit: Owen Daniels
 
What to Expect: Peyton Manning has averaged over 275 yards against the Texans over his career. Houston was trying out cornerbacks all week to help a depleted secondary. The Colts have been sluggish, but they have owned the Texans. I like this matchup for them.

Manning is going to light them up. I'm calling 300 with three scores. Anthony Gonzalez and Harrison should be solid plays to complement Wayne. I don't think Clark is 100 percent yet, but he'll be good enough to make the defense honest and haul in 50 yards or so.

It could very well be a complete field day for this offense. We haven't seen it yet, but they've had two weeks to prepare for them.

No worries on Joseph Addai; he should be active and find the end zone.

With Houston, they will likely look to exploit the run the way every team has against the Colts. Remember what Jacksonville did against them. Bob Sanders won't be there to support the run for Indy, so I like Slaton to go off for 130 and two scores. He's been good against teams that are better against the run than Indy.

Matt Schaub likely won't be looking to do much because of how poor the Colts are against the run. He should still come close to 200 yards, but don't expect Kevin Walter to have the same type of day he did last week. Johnson is the only safe bet in the passing game.
 
Sleeper Pickup: We're going kicker here. Gotta love the potential of Kris Brown against the Colts to do some serious scoring against a bend-but-don't-break defense.

Chicago at Detroit

Who to Start: Rudi Johnson, Jon Kitna if you must
 
Who to Sit: Kevin Smith, Kyle Orton, Chicago receivers
 
What to Expect: So why would we say to sit Orton after he played so well against Philly last week? The rumor is that both Booker and Lloyd are going to be out. If that's the case, there is no one to throw to. If it isn't, Orton is a decent play, because everyone can throw on the Lions. Of course, everyone can run on the Lions, too.

That's where Matt Forte comes in. The Lions are giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground. Seriously, you have to love Forte's potential to get 140 yards and two scores this week.

If you need a running back, even Kevin Jones could be a good play. Jerious Norwood was fine against the Lions even with Turner going for over 200 yards. Jones likely gets 60 and a score for himself as well.

The Lions will use Rudi Johnson to at least start the game. Johnson was solid in his performance against the 49ers, but chances are you have to think the Lions will need to throw in this one. 

The Bears have given up nearly 250 yards per game through the air, so there could be some room for him to do that. He should go for two scores and 230 yards. Both Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson should see enough action to be started.

Sleeper Pickup: Devin Hester will be the primary target for Orton. Any touchdown through the air will likely go to him.

Atlanta at Green Bay

Who to Start: Ryan Grant, Roddy White, Donald Lee, Jordy Nelson (deep leagues)
 
Who to Sit: Matt Ryan
 
What to Expect: Expect to be waiting until at least tomorrow or Saturday to find out the status of Aaron Rodgers. He's listed as having a sprain, but will do no throwing until Friday.

If Rodgers starts, all the guys on Green Bay will be decent plays. Greg Jennings should have no issues in torturing a defense that is bad against the pass when a team has a quarterback that can hurt them.

Rodgers is just that. Jordy Nelson is seeing the work with James Jones out of the lineup, and in deeper leagues could merit attention on the byes. Rodgers goes for 260 and two touchdowns if he starts. Lee and Jennings grab them.

Ryan Grant looked bad against a good Tampa run defense last week, but he has to be considered a start unless you have some very solid options to replace him. The Falcons have been ok in terms of rush defense, but nothing spectacular.

Michael Turner is going to be the guy that makes the team go, and is a must-start. Matt Ryan, however, is not. Roddy White is still a decent play, but he's the only option in the Atlanta passing game. Ryan found last week that the going isn't always easy in the NFL. Expect that message will be delivered again.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Jordy Nelson. Fellow B/R writer Jacob Sloan has been all over this one for a while. I'm falling in line behind him. Give him a decent look.

Back tomorrow to review the late games!