NCAA Tournament 2011: 10 Reasons Duke Will Win a Championship
Between blowouts, upsets and buzzer-beaters, the opening rounds of the 2011 NCAA tournament provided college basketball fans with plenty of excitement and intrigue to carry into this weekend's Sweet 16 and Elite Eight matchups.
And, to pretty much no one's surprise, top-seeded Duke survived and advanced to the Big Dance's second week.
The Blue Devils rolled over Hampton in the opener before squeaking by a scrappy Michigan team to give Mike Krzyzewski his 900th career victory and his 20th Sweet 16 berth in 26 years in Durham.
Despite having a stacked roster and the experience of winning the tourney last year, Coach K's club still has plenty of doubters and detractors who think the Devils are doomed in their title defense. Here, then, are 10 reasons the Cameron Crazies may not be so crazy after all in their repeat beliefs.
Nolan Smith: Always on Point
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The title hopes of any tournament team begin and end at the point guard position, where Duke has one of the nation's best in the person of Nolan Smith.
The 6'2" senior from Maryland has had a tremendous season thus far, leading the Blue Devils in scoring (21 points per game) and assists (5.2 per game) in a whopping 34 minutes per contest, thereby asserting himself as one of the leading candidates for national player of the year honors.
Smith showed off his efficiency and leadership ability in a nail-biting, 73-71 win over Michigan in the Round of 32, scoring 24 points on only 13 shots in 38 minutes of play.
Smith is just the kind of lead guard, with a wealth of experience and defensive ability, capable of guiding any team, including Duke, to the promised land.
Kyle Singler: Mr. Do-It-All
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As great a player as Nolan Smith is, we'd be remiss to not discuss Kyle Singler's importance to the team.
After all, it was Singler, not Smith, who took home Final Four MOP honors when the Blue Devils won it all in 2010.
The 6'8" swingman from Medford, Oregon is among the most versatile players in the nation, with the ability to play just about any position on the court. From outside shooting and perimeter ball-handling to scoring and rebounding on the interior, Singler is college basketball's version of a Swiss army knife.
As such, Singler fits perfectly into Duke's tradition of do-everything big men–a group that includes the likes of Mike Dunleavy Jr., Christian Laettner and Josh McRoberts.
Singler's numbers may be a tad bit down from last season's line, but his play will nonetheless be key to a repeat run for the Devils.
Experience Counts in Pursuit of a Repeat
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What really makes Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler valuable to Duke this tourney, however, is the fact that they've "been there, done that;" that they know how to win the national championship because they did it last year thanks to a missed three-pointer at the buzzer by Butler's Gordon Hayward.
Of course, Smith and Singler aren't the only holdovers from last year's winner. The Devils boast four other rotation players who played on that squad, including the Plumlee brothers, Ryan Kelly and Andre Dawkins.
Granted, these guys have seen their roles on the team increase this year and have performed quite well, for the most part. Whether or not the big men from this group–the Plumlees and Ryan Kelly–can replicate the run that Brian Zoubek had is anyone's best guess.
Perhaps the better question to ask is: will they need to?
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Seth Curry: Newcomer with a Good Tourney Bloodline
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As far-fetched as it may seem to suggest, one could argue that this year's Duke team is more talented than the one that left Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis with the school's fourth national title.
This may be true, in large part, because of the addition of one Seth Curry.
That's right, folks: the rich got richer when Coach K poached from Liberty the younger brother of former Davidson star and tourney sensation Stephen Curry.
Now, Seth doesn't yet have a feather in his cap quite like the one Steph picked up in 2008, when he nearly led Davidson to the Final Four, nor is it known whether or not Seth would be fully capable of sparking such a run.
However, unlike Steph's Davidson teams, the Blue Devils don't need Seth to carry them or be a savior, but instead serve as a sharp-shooting role player—a task for which the younger Curry is more than game.
Kyrie Irving: A Truly Game-Changing Talent
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No newcomer will have a greater effect on Duke's spring success than Kyrie Irving.
The phenomenal freshman from West Orange, New Jersey was arguably the Blue Devils' best player before suffering a toe injury against Butler in early December.
The ailment forced Irving to sit out the rest of the regular season, but he was able to rehab quickly enough to return for the NCAA tournament.
Since then, Irving has reestablished himself as a key cog in Duke's championship machinery, scoring in double figures in each of the Blue Devils' two tourney wins, thereby prompting Coach K to state publicly that, while he won't start just yet, Irving will play "significant minutes" in the Blue Devils' Sweet 16 game against Arizona.
Not bad for a guy with all of 10 collegiate games under his belt.
A Sweeter 16 vs. Arizona
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Speaking of Arizona, the Blue Devils shouldn't find the Wildcats to be too much of an impediment on their road back to the Final Four.
No offense to Sean Miller's team, but the 'Cats are largely a one-man team and, as sensational as that one man (sophomore forward Derrick Williams) may be, it will require a Fredette-like performance from Williams for Arizona to overcome a Duke roster that's stacked at just about every position.
That being said, it's not as though Williams isn't capable of such an effort, especially after putting up a combined 39 points and 17 rebounds in the first two games of the tournament. The task of containing the Pac-10 Player of the Year will likely fall between Kyle Singler and the Plumlee brothers who, combined, are themselves willing and able to take on a player of Williams' caliber successfully.
Not to mention the fact that Coach K probably wouldn't mind adding insult to injury 10 years after Duke's victory over U of A in the 2001 National Championship Game.
From Sweet to Elite Against UConn
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Assuming Connecticut gets by scrappy San Diego State in the Sweet 16, the Huskies will have a date with Duke to look forward to before they can even think of advancing to the Final Four.
UConn coach Jim Calhoun and Coach K are quite familiar with one another after matching wits in the 1999 National Championship Game, wherein Calhoun's Huskies edged the Blue Devils, 77-74.
Calhoun may not have Richard Hamilton to rely on this time around, but he'll probably be comfortable enough handing the ball over to Kemba Walker, the sensational junior who has carried UConn all season long and may very well be the National Player of the Year.
Walker more than proved himself worthy during the Huskies' two tourney wins, following up his line of 18 points, eight rebounds and 12 assists against Hampton with a whopping 33 points, six rebounds and five assists against fellow Big East member Cincinnati.
The hard-nosed Walker figures to be a tough guy for the Devils to slow down, and they'll have to if they're to march on to the Final Four. But if anybody can pull it off, it's Nolan Smith.
Reliving the Tobacco Road Rivalry in the Final Four
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Now, this may be looking just a bit far ahead, but it's entirely possible that Duke will run into North Carolina at the Final Four in Houston.
On the court, that is.
The second-seeded Tar Heels should be able to steal the slipper from 11th-seeded-Cinderella Marquette in the Sweet 16 before suiting up against either Kentucky or Ohio State in the Elite Eight. Either of those opponents would be a tough out for Roy Williams and company, though far from impossible to knock out.
Should the dominoes fall UNC's way, they'll likely have an even tougher time hanging with the hated Blue Devils, who trounced the Heels for the ACC tournament championship, 75-58.
Without Kyrie Irving.
So, as exciting as the buildup would be to this game, it could turn out to be quite a stinker in Duke's favor.
Talent Wins...Period
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Regardless of the opponent, Duke will always have a chance to win because of its wealth of top-tier talent.
The Blue Devils currently boast five McDonald's High School All-Americans–Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and Kyrie Irving–along with another player, Andre Dawkins, who likely would've been selected if not for the fact that he left high school a year early to play for Coach K.
That's more than half of the team's regular rotation that came from the nation's most elite pool of prep talent.
Granted, there are plenty of cases of McDonald's All-Americans who've been busts; the Cameron Crazies know all about them, with the likes of Shavlik Randolph, Eric Boateng and Taylor King having come to Durham by way of Mickey D's.
However, it's safe to say that Coach K's stockpile of talent has panned out well enough to put the team in perfect position to be the last team standing in early April.
No One Does It Better in the Modern Era Than Coach K
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When push comes to shove, teams that win in the tournament have coaches that know how to prepare their kids for the pressure cooker of the one-and-done format.
And no one knows how to do that better these days that Mike Krzyzewski. The man known best as Coach K is already the all-time leader in tournament wins with 79, and will have the opportunity to tie John Wooden's record for Final Four appearances of 12 if his Blue Devils win their next two games.
Or rather, if and when he guides them back to the promised land.
Oh, and if the Blue Devils manage to make it to the national championship game, they will officially be playing for the all-time winningest coach in NCAA Division I history.
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