Chicago Cubs: 15 Predictions for the 2011 Season
2011 looks to be a year of many questions for the Chicago Cubs. Gone are Ryan Theriot, Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly, and in are Darwin Barney, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza. Mike Quade looks to prove Jim Hendry and Tom Ricketts right in choosing him over fan favorite Ryne Sandberg as manager; and Mark Riggins is the new pitching coach in place of Larry Rothschild - poached from the Cubs by the Yankees. All these changes could prove for a very interesting season - be it good or bad.
Carlos Silva, Jeff Samardzija, and Blake DeWitt Don't Break Camp
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Due to various reasons, these three men will be employed by other organizations than the Cubs by the time Spring Training comes to an end.
Carlos Silva has had a brutal spring, fighting with Aramis Ramirez early in the spring schedule, and having an E.R.A. north of 10. The Yankees are a trade possibility, with their need for starting pitching, and Silva's early success last season with Larry Rothschild.
Jeff Samardzija hasn't impressed at any level since his high-flying debut in 2008. In fact, he's regressed both at the major league and minor league level. A reliever who can throw in the high 90's can find a job, some organization will take a gamble on him, sending out a prospect in the hopes that their pitching coach can fix him and make him into the relief ace he was supposed to be.
Blake DeWitt has struggled mightily this spring, with little hope of even finishing his spring at the Mendoza line. Jeff Baker has seemingly won the starting second baseman's job.
Max Ramirez, Darwin Barney, and Bobby Scales/Scott Moore Will Break Camp
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Right now, there are a few roster openings on the Cubs. The primary roster battles are for backups on the infield and outfield, and backup catcher.
Darwin Barney is hitting roughly .380 this spring, and has seemingly won his spot as the backup infielder. While he may not be the greatest player on the team, Barney is a grinder who always plays like it's Game Seven of the World Series.
Koyie Hill's light-hitting ways as the Cubs backup catcher have probably come to an end, as the Cubs finally have a superior option as a backup in Max Ramirez, acquired off waivers from Boston via Texas. However, Hill will most likely clear waivers and report to AAA Iowa. The Cubs will probably remove him from the 40-man roster at this point.
Both Bobby Scales and Scott Moore are hitting very well right now, and both deserve a roster spot. Right now, I'd say Scales heads north with the team, and Scott Moore is offered a job at AAA Iowa. I wouldn't be surprised to see them both in a Cubs uniform by season's end.
Andrew Cashner Will Be the Fifith Starter, Become Ace by July
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Much attention has been drawn to who the Cubs 4th and 5th starters will be this season. Randy Wells has had a strong spring, and will repeat as the Cubs #4 starter. However, none of the Non-Roster Invitees have had strong springs, nor has Silva, so Andrew Cashner looks to have all but won the fifth starter's spot.
His combination of strong pitches, velocity, and a new pitching philosophy under Mark Riggins will see Andrew Cashner be the Cubs best starter by July.
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Darwin Barney Will Be the Starting Second Baseman by the All-Star Break
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While Jeff Baker is a very good player, he's best suited as a fifth infielder. Able to play infield and outfield, Baker's bat will be best suited as the first backup off the bench.
Barney could also solve the Cubs issue at the leadoff hitter position, as he has a solid combination of speed and contact. At the least, he probably won't be much worse than Kosuke Fukudome, or a platoon of Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker.
Matt Garza Will Flirt with Immortality
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On July 26, 2010, Matt Garza threw a no-hitter against the Detroit Tigers, throwing 101 of 120 of his pitches for fastballs.
Coming to the National League Central, Matt Garza will come close to throwing a no-hitter or perfect game. However, he won't quite get there, but it will still be one of the most exciting performances of the season for the Cubs.
Sean Marshall Will Make the All-Star Game
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One widely accepted strong point for the 2011 Cubs will be the ability to hold down late leads. With a bullpen lead by Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, James Russell, John Grabow, and Marshall, the Cubs should have one of the best bullpens in the league.
Though set-up men rarely get an All-Star nod, Sean Marshall will have another exceptional season in the 7th and 8th innings, and get selected to the N.L. All-Star Roster. Whether he pitches is questionable.
Zambrano Starts Strong, Finishes Around Career Averages
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For the first time since 2004, a pitcher not named Carlos Zambrano will be the opening day starter for the Cubs. A motivated and mentally stabilized Zambrano will come out of the gate red-hot, and remain nearly untouchable until sometime in the early summer.
Zambrano, however, will not have a meltdown like last year, but the last half of the season will be around Zambrano's career norms, which will still be a positive season for Zambrano.
Cubs Will Trade for a True Ace
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With Zack Greinke and Chris Carpenter injured, the Cubs will find themselves in contention when the trade deadline comes around. That being said, the realization that there is no true ace on the club will see Jim Hendry under pressure to acquire a true #1 starter, as Matt Garza will not be the guy.
Talks have swirled that Fransisco Liriano is available from the Twins. A package for him would probably be centered around Jay Jackson and Josh Vitters.
Castro Will Regress Slightly at Plate, Improve in Field, Colvin Improves at Both
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Last season, Starlin Castro hit .300 out of the second spot in the lineup. This season, I see his average dropping slightly (no lower than .285), however, his fielding and power numbers should improve.
Tyler Colvin has nowhere to go but up, and should look better at the plate and in the field. Look for him to play in at least 130 games this year as his combination of speed and power force their way into the Cubs lineup.
Pena, Ramirez, Soriano All Have Bounce-Back Years
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Of the three counted on to provide the power for the Cubs, only Alfonso Soriano had a better year in 2010 than in 2009. Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena both had very strong drop-offs in their numbers.
Soriano says he feels fully healthy for the first time in years. While he won't live up to his contract, I see Soriano having a line of around .275-35-90 and regaining the hearts of Cubs fans, or at least stop drawing quite the ire that he currently does.
Ramirez was bothered early by a bad thumb, after his stint on the DL after which he got truly healthy and produced almost perfectly along his career averages. Realizing that he's playing for his next contract - most likely with another team with Vitters getting closer and closer every day - he should have enough motivation to put up some big numbers for the Cubs. .300-40-110 isn't out the question by any means.
Pena is an interesting case. Last year he hit .196, having seen his average drop the last three seasons. However, Pena has played those years in the toughest division in baseball, the A.L. East. Coming to the N.L. Central and Wrigley Field should help Pena's production. With the power and defense he provides, if Pena can hit at least .240, he should be a force for the Cubs.
Carlos Pena Will Be the N.L. Comeback Player of the Year
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Last season, Carlos Pena had a horrendous batting line of .196-28-84.
Coming to the Cubs in 2011, Pena should hit at least .240, hit 40 homers, and play in at least 140 games. Being productive in any sort of way after the 2010 season he had, Pena will be a frontrunner for Comeback Player Of The Year.
Cubs Win an Injury Decimated N.L. Central
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With everyone having written the Cubs off for the first time since the early 2000's, the Cubs will surprise a lot of baseball people and win their division.
This, however, will not be their own doing, as they will get a lot of help from the injury bug going around the division.
Mike Quade Wins N.L. Manager of the Year
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Mike Quade will draw great praise for taking what many perceived as a team of role players surrounded by a bucket of spare parts, and making the team into a winner. Players want to play their hearts out for Quade, and getting this maximized production will help the Cubs win the division.
After this award, and the Cubs returning to October baseball, most of those who questioned Quade over Sandberg will be convinced and/or silenced.
Brett Jackson Will Impress in September Callup, Win Spot on Post-Season Roster
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Thanks to a strong minor league season, Brett Jackson will be one of the call-ups for the Cubs in September.
The former first-round pick will not disappoint in his duty as the 4th OF. His strong play and hard work will earn him a spot on the Cubs post-season roster, coming off the bench to add some extra speed.
The Cubs Will Not Win the N.L. Pennant
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Despite having a season of what some would call miraculous events, the Cubs simply do not have the talent or firepower to hold up in the post-season. Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Fransisco, Los Angeles, and Colorado can all prove to be too much for the Cubs in October.
However, the team will make great strides forward, lead by promising youth.
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