Are the 4-0 Buffalo Bills for Real?

The Buffalo Bills are 4-0 for the first time since 1992, when they were on their way to their third of four straight Super Bowls.  They have a 1.5 game lead over the New England Patriots in the AFC East, the first time any other team besides the Patriots has led the division since Week 4 of 2005.  The Bills have not made the playoffs since 1999 (the longest active streak in the AFC), and they have not won the division since 1995.

Why are the 2008 Bills going to make the playoffs this year, when they have been less than competitive in previous years?

Defense.  The Bills are the fifth ranked defense in points allowed per game and the seventh ranked defense in yards allowed per game, huge improvements over their 2007 ranks (18^th and 31^st in the same respective categories).  The defense has a few new faces, mainly DT Marcus Stroud (traded from the Jaguars) and LB Kawika Mitchell (free agent from the Giants), who have made instant and noticeable impacts.  These new acquisitions have helped boost the team’s sacks from 29^th in the league in 2007 to 10^th in the league in 2008.

Offense.  The Bills are the 8^th ranked offense in points scored per game and the 16^th ranked offense in yards gained per game, which are significantly better than their 2007 ranks (30^th and 30^th respectively).  The offense has benefited from a new offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert, who has installed a more aggressive and less predictable offense than his predecessor in 2007, Steve Fairchild.  Trent Edwards has shown more maturity, poise, and confidence than a second-year player usually does, leading a mistake-free offense full of burgeoning talent.  Marshawn Lynch is proving to be a top running back, and his backup, Fred Jackson, completes one of the league’s best one-two running back combinations.  Above all, the offensive line has been solid, and once Jason Peters gets back to top form (he missed training camp and the preseason due to a contract holdout), the offense will be even better.

Special Teams.  Bobby April is in his fifth year leading the special teams unit for the Bills, fielding one of the league’s best special teams units every year.  Roscoe Parrish is one of the most dynamic punt returners in the league; he will be out for four to six weeks due to injury, but the special teams will not miss a beat.  Terrence McGee, Leodis McKelvin, and Fred Jackson are all able returners, plus the coverage unit provides excellent protection, leading the Bills to a 3^rd ranked punt return average and a 7^th ranked kick return average.  Kicker Rian Lindell and Punter Brian Moorman have strong and accurate legs, and are always at the top of the league at their positions; what is surprising about that statement is that the Bills’ Ralph Wilson Stadium is known as having some of the most unpredictable and vicious winds in the league.

The Fourth Quarter.  Closing out games is the most noticeable improvement over 2007 and previous years for the Bills.  Trent Edwards has a 136.6 passer rating in the fourth quarter, behind only Philip Rivers and Brett Favre, leading the Bills to 45 fourth quarter points this season; the Bills scored only 64 fourth quarter points all last season.  The defense has only allowed 10 points in the fourth quarter this year, clamping down on the opposition when it matters most.  In their most notable collapse of 2007, the Bills gave up an 11 point lead to the Cowboys in fourth quarter, with Dallas scoring 9 points in the final 20 seconds to win 25-24.  By excelling in the fourth quarter, the Bills are avoiding such meltdowns, plus two of the Bills’ three fourth quarter comebacks this season have come on the road, showing surprising toughness and resiliency in such a young team.

Injuries.  The Bills finished 2007 with an NFL record 17 players on injured reserve, yet still finished with a 7-9 record; the team was still in the playoff hunt in early December 2008 with a 7-6 record before losing the final three games.  Head Coach Dick Jauron kept the team fighting and scraping over the course of the 2007 season, which has carried over to 2008.  The Bills currently have no players on injured reserve, and their biggest injury concern currently is Roscoe Parrish, the speedy punt returner and fourth receiver, known for big plays.  The special teams has enough impact players to overcome the missing return skills, and the offense will be able to get more balls to the potential breakout rookie WR James Hardy.

The Bills’ slow starts in games so far in 2008 are a concern; the three fourth quarter comebacks would not have been needed if the Bills were able to score points early on.  However, finishing games with strong fourth quarters is a necessity if the Bills are going to keep winning throughout the regular season, and possibly in the playoffs.  The Bills’ wins this year have come against teams with a combined 4-11 winning percentage, and the team has one of the weakest 2008 schedules in the NFL.  This means that Buffalo will get their wins and most likely make the playoffs.  Whether or not the Bills make a deep postseason run depends on their tenacity.  Even when struggling against the league’s worst teams, the Bills did not panic or get flustered; they kept fighting and gained confidence that they can win even when they are expected not to win.

The inconsistent, though explosive, Arizona Cardinals are their next opponent, on the road, followed by a bye week, then the San Diego Chargers (which can probably be described in a similar fashion to the Cardinals: inconsistent though explosive) travel to Buffalo.  After that, the Bills play their six division games over the last ten weeks of the season.  Following the game against San Diego, the true power of the 2008 Buffalo Bills will be revealed, showing this team is different than the other Bills teams this decade.