NCAA Bracket 2011: Previewing the 7-10 Matchups

BracketAnalytics.com is your bracketology cheat sheet. We have engineered an enhanced March Madness experience by evaluating 350 different attributes and building 60 algorithms so that you have a more competitive bracket.

In this edition, we share some of the insights that our models have produced for the 7-10 matchups.

East Region: (7) Washington vs. (10) Georgia

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 12: Head coach Lorenzo Romar of the Washington Huskies reacts while taking on the Arizona Wildcats in the championship game of the 2011 Pacific Life Pac-10 Men's Basketball Tournament at Staples Center on March 12, 2011 in Los Ang

The Selection Committee may have over-seeded UCLA, but they under-seeded Washington. Washington is 15th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings and are an excellent offensive team with tremendous bench strength and height. They do rely a little too much on three-point field goals, and they are not a good free throw shooting team. 

However, they play at a very fast pace (nearly 72 a game, 16^th in the nation). The more possessions give you a larger margin of error.

Georgia is an excellent rebounding team with an emphasis on defense. They played a legitimate schedule, but they were 1-8 against the Top 40. They are closer to a 12 or 13 seed, if they deserve to be in the tournament at all. 

BracketAnalytics.com thinks Washington is the strongest seven seed and should advance.

Southwest Region: (7) UCLA vs. (10) Michigan State

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

LAWRENCE, KS - DECEMBER 02: Head coach Ben Howland of the UCLA Bruins reacts after a foul during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks on December 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Our models point strongly to a Michigan State first round win. First, UCLA wasn’t in the tournament last year which points to an early NCAA Tournament exit. Secondly, UCLA is over-seeded in our opinion based on on-court performance. 

Tom Izzo has proven he overachieves in March, and he has prepared his Spartans again with one of the strongest schedules in the country. Michigan State has had their challenges this year, as the team has struggled to fit in the Izzo mold. 

Nowhere is that more evident that how much point production they haven’t been able to find in the paint and how much their rebounding is off their normal levels. Michigan State is also very weak with three-point defense, but fortunately, UCLA really struggles from outside and turn the ball over a lot.

West Region: (7) Temple vs. (10) Penn State

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 13: Talor Battle #12 of the Penn State Nittany Lions reacts against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the championship game of the 2011 Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament at Conseco Fieldhouse on March 13, 2011 in Indianapolis, Ind

This game features two teams that are right next to each other in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Penn State’s last tourney appearance in 2001 resulted in a loss to Temple. These two Keystone State teams typically play each other each season, but didn’t this year. Now they get to play in Arizona with a whole lot on the line. 

Penn State has no bench, but features the craftiness of Talor Battle. Penn State has a very strong strength of schedule, playing 14 games against the Top 40 (going 3-11). Temple went 2-3 against Top 40 teams.

The models at BracketAnalytics.com are selecting Temple.

Full disclosure: I went to Penn State.

Southeast Region: (7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Florida State

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GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 12: Leonard Hamilton, head coach, talks to Derwin Kitchen #22 of the Florida State Seminoles against the North Carolina State Wolfpack in their quarterfinal game in the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseu

Florida State is a tall, deep team that plays relentless defense.  This match-up will be strength vs. strength as Texas A&M is much better on the offensive side of the ball. 

What is baffling is when you look at Texas A&M and their tempo. They average 63 possessions a game, which is in the bottom 10 percent in the nation. However, in all of their losses, there were 63 possessions or less in regulation.

Florida State likes to push it, and they only have two wins against teams outside the top 30, both at home.

BracketAnalytics.com likes Florida State.