UFC 90: Alves vs. Sanchez. Who will fight the winner of St. Pierre/Penn?

Both fighters are 8-2 in the octagon. They share two similar opponents. Sanchez lost to John Fitch at UFC 76 back in 2007 in a close split decision. Alves lost to Fitch at UFN 5 back in 2006 due to strikes (seriously?!).Both fighters beat Karo Parisyan. Alves via a TKO in the 2^nd round. Sanchez won via a unanimous decision. Sanchez was more impressive in his loss to Fitch while Alves was more impressive in his win over Parisyan, being the first man to knock Karo out.

Both fighters will be coming in supremely confident. Diego gets most of his confidence from his mental game. Alves, from his animal intensity. Alves has won 6 straight fights since his loss to John Fitch, including the victory over Parisyan.  Thiago relies on his vicious strikes. In his 8 octagon wins 7 are via TKO or KO. His fights don’t go to the judge’s scorecard. Sanchez is coming off two impressive wins, after two straight losses, to Fitch and Koscheck. They are his only career losses. He has always had a great G&P game and now his striking looks to be much improved. He will need this to start the fight against Alves. His wins either via his G&P or he gets a decision.

Most would agree that Alves is the superior striker based on each fighter’s history. And most would agree that Sanchez is better at punishing his opponents on the ground. Both fighters are competent in all areas though. Alves looked comfortable on the ground against Hughes and even has some nice G&P for the former champion. Diego surprised everyone with his striking ability to finish off Luigi Fioravanti, who was expected to be the superior striker.

Diego will have to be very careful not to eat a knee when trying to take the fight to the ground. Thiago’s take down defense is getting better with each fight. The question is can Sanchez get the fight to the ground and if so how will Alves deal with it. Alves has BJJ skills although some may question Alves’s abilities in that dept. based on his use of the skill in his fights.

Back to them both having 10 fights in the Octagon. We already talked about how they each end their fights in very different ways. How about actual time spent in the cage. I added up Diego’s minutes and it comes to approximately 91 minutes to Alves’s 70 minutes. Will extra battle time make a difference? Diego trains as hard as anyone in the UFC. I haven’t heard how people view Thiago’s training regimen.

Recently “The Nightmare” said in an interview “This is the fight of my life. I’m doing a lot strength training, submission, but my biggest strength is my heart, conditioning, technique and I feel that these three things are going to be the biggest factor in this fight. If his biggest strength is his heart then Thiago’s might be his instincts. Technique vs. Wildness. Which will prevail?

For me, I believe this fight will come down to the mental game of Diego Sanchez. Will he be able to handle the strength & viciousness of Alves? I think he will be able to avoid enough damage standing up, something past victims of the pit-bull haven’t done. I think Alves will win the first round by getting the better of the stand up game. I think the 2^nd round will be pivotal with Diego starting to assert himself on the ground. The 3^rd round will be where Diego pulls away and secures another win, this time via split decision. From there Diego will get the opportunity to suffer the same fate that so many great fighters before him have.