Kyle Busch: Where Does He Go from Here?

Before the Chase began at Loudon, predictions about how many bad races a driver could have and still be in contention for the Cup ranged all the way from zero to one.

Most who set forth their theories believed a driver could have one bad race, while many others looked at last year's results and said none; consistency and no bad breaks would be the key.

Those theories were seemingly put to the test when the number one seed coming into the Chase, Kyle Busch, had a terrible day at Loudon. A mechanical failure and accident early in the race relegated Busch to a 34th place finish and dropped him from first to eighth in the point standings.

Many people said that was his one "mulligan" and it definitely wasn't enough to knock him out of Cup contention. The fact that he held an 80 point lead over much of the field to begin with helped cushion the blow to his standing in the points.

Those bonus points coming into the Chase also led many to believe that his poor finish at Loudon might not even mean that much, as he was just now back with the pack.

Many thought it possible that he could make up much of that in the next race at Dover, where he had won decisively earlier in the year.

The other Chasers were by no means ready to count him out. Dale Jr. stated what many were thinking. "Even if he was 200 points back with just five to go I wouldn't count him out, I mean there's just no telling when they could flip the switch and make it happen."

Jeff Gordon predicted "He [Busch] is going to be going real fast and bouncing off pretty much everything there is to bounce off of. If he keeps it going straight then there's a very good chance he can win this race this weekend...Should be exciting to watch."

Then Dover came and Busch's engine went. It was anything but exciting to watch, even for his detractors. It might have brought them a little joy, but in the end it was just another car billowing smoke then being pushed back to the garage.

For Busch it was as Yogi Berra would say, "deja vu all over again."

The results of the first two races were an eerie repeat of his Chase efforts in 2006 when he was driving the No. 5 for Hendrick Motorsports. Then, as now, Kyle crashed in the first race, then had engine problems in the second.

Busch finished dead last at Dover, moving from the top to the bottom of the Chase point standings in the first two races.

Still, few were quick to dismiss his chances in the Chase for the Cup. After all, he was only 210 points back and had gone on runs, reeling off wins and top fives throughout the season.

People pointed to Jimmie Johnson's poor start in the 2006 Chase, when he proved many pundits wrong by coming back from two bad finishes—a 39th at Loudon and a 24th later at Talladega—and two top-15s in the first four races to win the Cup.

Or they pointed to Johnson being 247 points back with only six races to go in 2004. That year he came back to finish second, losing the championship to Kyle's older brother Kurt by a mere eight points.

In each of those years, Johnson rallied back with first and second place finishes in all but one of the last six races.

Others, however, claimed that there were too many good competitors and that they would all have to have a bad day for him to be back in it.

The fact was that only the top three would need bad days for him to be back in contention; most of the rest were less than a race full of points from his grasp.

Before the Kansas race, Kyle stated "Realistically, we're out of it," citing the fact that a driver can't build expectations for the rest of the season by counting on another driver (or in this case at least three other drivers) having a bad day.

Then the tornado struck in Kansas and instead of lifting Dorothy off to Oz, it sent Busch into the cellar.

In an unprecedented run of bad luck for the year, the No. 18 team and the rest of NASCAR Nation watched as intermittent fuel system problems and bad track position left Busch with his third strike of the Chase—a 28th place finish.

If the No. 18 team hadn't been out of Chase contention before Kansas as many had conjectured, their performance at Kansas erased all doubt in most people's minds.

Yes, there are a few of us die-hard fans who cling to a thin strand of hope that somehow Talladega and Martinsville will turn out to be the great equalizers.

Kyle won at Talladega earlier this year and a similar performance, along with a "Big One" that takes out at least the "Big Three," might somehow bring Busch's Cup hopes back into the realm of the possible.

But that strand of hope is mighty thin and already stretched to the bounds of the believable.

When faced with the reality of who is contending for the Cup currently, their experience, their talent, their consistency, and their finishes thus far, Busch has two chances to win the Chase—fat and none.

As much as I hate to think that as a die-hard member of "Rowdy's World," sometimes the truth hurts. But it doesn't by any means deter me as a Rowdy fan as the season winds to a close.

Although the bandwagon full of new Kyle Busch fans seems to be a whole lot lighter these days; those of us who have followed him for years still have much to look forward to.

Instead of crying about how the Chase format robbed him of his championship, how Lady Luck dealt the Vegas native a bad hand, or how there must be a conspiracy against him so that Johnson can win three in a row, I look forward with hope and expectation to what he can still do this year and beyond.

Kyle already holds the record for most wins across NASCAR's major three series in a season. As of today, Kyle has won 19 NASCAR races this year—eight in cup, eight in nationwide, and three in the truck series.

The next closest to that record in terms of wins across series in a season is Kevin Harvick, who won nine Busch Series races and five in the Cup series back in 2006, giving him a total of 14.

Kyle has already smashed that record, along with being the only person to have won in all three series more than one year. As a matter of fact, he's done it four years in a row, from 2005 to 2008.

Only two other drivers have ever won in all three series in the same year, and each of them did it only once—Terry Labonte in 1995 and Kevin Harvick in 2003. And each of them had a total of only five wins across all three series in those years.

What I am cheering for now is for Kyle to pull off something I'm sure he thinks about whenever he's near an In-and-Out Burger, one of his (and my) favorite places to eat while back home in Vegas. It's a phrase heard hundreds of times a day by the cashiers there—a "double-double."

With two or more wins in the last seven cup races and two or more in the last five Nationwide races, he could not only set the bar so high in terms of overall wins he may have a tough time ever seeing it again, but he could also end up being the first driver ever to win 10 or more races in two different series in the same year.

Whether he does so or not, he could still end up being the first driver to win the most races in two series in the same year. Further, if he does get two more wins in the Nationwide Series, he would tie the record for most wins in a season set by Sam Ard in 1983—back before Busch was even a glimmer in his daddy's eye.

With a lot of luck and all the skill he can muster, he could possibly go so far as to do all that, but also win the rest of the truck races he's scheduled to run in and pull off the impossible—most wins in all three series in the same year.

Whether he actually achieves any of this or not, however, nothing will deter me from buying and displaying even more "Rowdy gear"—to celebrate not only the accomplishments of this year, but also to prepare for the next.

Now matter the outcome of the next seven races, this has been an unbelievable year for Kyle and his fans.

By all accounts and expectations, this was to be a "building year"—building up his relationships with his new crew chief and team, with his new teammates Denny and Tony, with Joe and J.D. Gibbs, with his new sponsors, and with Toyota as their new manufacturer.

And what a foundation they have built for years to come.

With the year he has had and a future so bright, it's no wonder Kyle Busch wears such giant 24-karat gold sunglasses all the time...

That's my $0.18. What's yours?